labradore

About that "infrastructure strategy"

2012-01-26T07:34:00.000-04:00

Over the past few years, this corner has tried to quantify a very obvious pattern of pavement politicking, using data drawn from a couple of sources.

The first source was the former Danny Williams-Government's own press releases, passim, announcing funding under the Provincial Roads Improvement Program.

The second, interestingly, a most useful table which was provided after requesting the "analysis" referred to in a 2005 press release issued by former Minister Tom Rideout:

Minister Rideout says he offers no apologies for addressing transportation issues in government districts throughout the province. "When the previous administration was in power, opposition districts were highly neglected," said the minister. "This neglect now needs to be addressed, and that is exactly the action our department is taking.

"I had an analysis completed for the last five years that the previous administration was in office. Statistics from this analysis clearly indicate that the largest percentage of the allocated funding for roads went to government districts.

"I make no apologies now for addressing areas that were neglected when the previous administration was in power."

Asking for this "analysis" yielded a printoff of a simple Excel spreadsheet, years in columns, district names in rows, dollar amounts in cells. When pressed as to whether this constituted the whole of the analysis, Senior Official replied:

I will have to retrieve single page I sent you to confirm but I believe it lists the name of each electoral district as well as the expenditures. Any provincial politcian would know simply by looking at the district names which ones are Government seats and which are not. The Minister would not have required any further analysis by officials to make this distinction.

Well and good.

Of course, the former Danny Williams-Government liked to do things on a go-forward basis. No further proof was needed of this, than the fact that the "analysis", referenced in 2005, and so helpfully provided by DW-G, included data up to 2008.

So, by 2010, curiosity being what it is, this corner inquired again of Senior Official:

Has the table referenced below been updated with more recent data, including from the 2009 PRIP?

Response:

We have not updated the table yet.

Follow-up:

Will it be updated?

Re-response:

Eventually, but we do not update on regular basis just as need arises. We are tied up on other priorities right now.

On a totally unrelated measure, after years of making a great show of them, starting in 2009 Danny Williams-Government completely stopped including dollar value figures in its district-by-district PRIP funding announcements, and has continued to omit them on — wait for it — a go-forward basis.

Pease in a pod (XIV)

2012-01-25T07:19:00.000-04:00

#FormerPremier:

"I can't control traitors. People who betray their province, I have no control over that. All I can continue to do is fight the good fight and I will right up until the federal election..."

#CurrentPMO:

In a sworn affidavit released Tuesday to The Canadian Press, Andrew Frank says he was told by his supervisor at ForestEthics that a PMO official had referred to their organization as an "enemy of the state."

Better late than never?

2012-01-19T07:52:00.000-04:00

Rob Antle of CBC, January 18, 2012:

The Newfoundland and Labrador house of assembly sat for the fewest days last year since the Tories took office, dropping the province further down the list of active provincial legislatures.

The chamber at Confederation Building was open for debate just 33 days in 2011.

Other than 2003, that’s the lowest figure in at least a quarter-century, according to statistics maintained by the Parliament of Canada.

Ahem. 2011.

2010.

2010 again.

2009.

2009 again.

Show your work

2012-01-19T00:36:00.004-04:00

Dundergov repeated a strange Dandergov-era claim on Tuesday:

Newfoundland and Labrador has once again emerged as a national leader in red tape reduction according to an annual report released today by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business (CFIB). The report gives Newfoundland and Labrador a grade of B, second only to British Columbia.

“The Red Tape Reduction initiative in this province began in 2006, and has had resounding success to date,” said the Honourable Paul Davis, Minister of Service NL. “The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador has an ongoing commitment to improving regulatory processes across all of our programs and services.”

The original goal of the provincial Red Tape Reduction initiative was a 25 per cent reduction in red tape. This goal was surpassed within a three-year time frame, and the Provincial Government continues to achieve its objective of no net growth in the number of regulatory requirements. As of November 2011, this objective has been surpassed with a net reduction in regulatory requirements of two per cent since April 2009.

This corner will ask again:

How is this "red tape" measured, so that its reduction can be quantified so very precisely?

And what regulatory requirements have been abolished along the way?

Can a body get such information with resorting to protracted and orwellian (or possibly kafkaesque) Access to Information requests?

What is the Premier trying to hide?

2012-01-14T22:07:00.002-04:00

This was the Progressive Conservative Party, a decade ago, about a resource megaproject in Labrador being undertaken by private capital:

MR. WILLIAMS: The people of this Province, Mr. Speaker, are very, very concerned about the details of this agreement and they have a right to know before it is finalized.

My question, Mr. Speaker, for the Premier is: Why would you not bring it before this Legislature and before the people of the Province? If you are about to sign a deal that could possibly be another giveaway of our resources, of our future, of our children and our grandchildren, why would you not bring it before this House if it is going to be such a good deal for Newfoundlanders and Labradorians? What is the Premier trying to hide, Mr. Speaker?

This is the Progressive Conservative Party, Wednesday, about a resource megaproject in Labrador being undertaken by at least $6.2-billion in public money, if you assume, for the sake of argument, that the cost estimates are credible:

“We’re going to have the Manitoba Hydro report at the end of this month, and that is the critical component of the PUB review. You’ve heard all of the discussion that has come from opposition parties about opening of the House and having an opportunity to discuss issues,” Dunderdale said.

She said the Opposition Liberals and the NDP can use their allotted budget debate time to talk about Muskrat Falls and the PUB report.

“Because the budget is a money bill, you can discuss anything under the sun,” Dunderdale said.

What a hypocrisy this government is

2012-01-13T21:04:00.002-04:00

This was the Progressive Conservative Party, a decade ago, about a resource megaproject in Labrador being undertaken by private capital:

MR. WILLIAMS: Mr. Speaker, what a farce. What a hypocrisy this government is. This government, who says its trademark is: It is the most open and accountable and transparent government since Confederation. What a farce!

MR. SPEAKER: Order, please!

The hon. member is on a supplementary; I ask him to get to his question.

MR. WILLIAMS: Mr. Speaker, my question for the minister is: Will he agree with the position of Deputy Premier Tulk, last spring, and agree to a full and open debate in the House of Assembly prior to an agreement between Inco and the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, and prior to such an agreement being final and binding on the people of Newfoundland and Labrador? Will you agree, Minister, to a full and open debate in this House?

“We’re going to have the Manitoba Hydro report at the end of this month, and that is the critical component of the PUB review. You’ve heard all of the discussion that has come from opposition parties about opening of the House and having an opportunity to discuss issues,” Dunderdale said.

She said the Opposition Liberals and the NDP can use their allotted budget debate time to talk about Muskrat Falls and the PUB report.

“Because the budget is a money bill, you can discuss anything under the sun,” Dunderdale said.

The people need to know

2012-01-12T21:54:00.001-04:00

This was the Progressive Conservative Party, a decade ago, about a resource megaproject in Labrador being undertaken by private capital:

ST. JOHN'S, May 6, 2002 — In order to force the government to debate the terms of the deal in the House of Assembly, Williams said the Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador will be conducting a major advertising campaign. Caucus members will also hold public speaking engagements across the province.

"The people need to know that the government is about to sign a bad deal. We know from previous experience, such as Churchill Falls, that once a bad deal is signed, it cannot be changed no matter how hard we try. Debating the deal in the House of Assembly before it is finalized will at a minimum fully disclose to the people the benefits this province will receive from the development of a major resource."

“We’re going to have the Manitoba Hydro report at the end of this month, and that is the critical component of the PUB review. You’ve heard all of the discussion that has come from opposition parties about opening of the House and having an opportunity to discuss issues,” Dunderdale said.

She said the Opposition Liberals and the NDP can use their allotted budget debate time to talk about Muskrat Falls and the PUB report.

“Because the budget is a money bill, you can discuss anything under the sun,” Dunderdale said.

Arrogance and disrespect

2012-01-11T21:49:00.000-04:00

This was the Progressive Conservative Party, a decade ago, about a resource megaproject in Labrador being undertaken by private capital:

MR. WILLIAMS: My questions today are for the Premier. Yesterday, in response to a question to the Premier on whether debate would be held in this House of Assembly before a deal was finalized on Voisey's Bay, the Premier shocked some of the Members of this House of Assembly and indeed the people of Newfoundland and Labrador. He made a statement, and I will repeat it, "If we have a debate in this Legislature, and if the government has already commited to the deal, which has twenty-eight seats, and if we bring it in here and vote for it, regardless of how the Opposition votes, it will pass in this Legislature. That is the practicality of how this Legislature operates."

That was the Premier's quote. In other words, why bother to bring it in here? Why have hon. members opposite talk about it or debate it? Why bring it before this House?

I would ask the Premier: Does twelve years in power breed the arrogance and disrespect that you now show no respect for this House, for the members of this House, and indeed the people of Newfoundland and Labrador?

This is the Progressive Conservative Party, today, about a resource megaproject in Labrador being undertaken by at least $6.2-billion in public money, if you assume, for the sake of argument, that the cost estimates are credible:

“We’re going to have the Manitoba Hydro report at the end of this month, and that is the critical component of the PUB review. You’ve heard all of the discussion that has come from opposition parties about opening of the House and having an opportunity to discuss issues,” Dunderdale said.

She said the Opposition Liberals and the NDP can use their allotted budget debate time to talk about Muskrat Falls and the PUB report.

“Because the budget is a money bill, you can discuss anything under the sun,” Dunderdale said.

Finally, a legislative agenda

2012-01-06T12:14:00.003-04:00

Tom Osborne, the Member that works, has another one of his brrrilliant ideas. VOCM reports today:

MHA Targeting Money Lenders
Friday , January 6 2012

A St. John's MHA is pushing for regulations to deal with payday lending companies and their practices in the province. On VOCM Back Talk with Paddy Daly, Tory MHA Tom Osborne said he was shocked by a call he received from a constituent who recently ran into trouble with one of those companies. He says the man had borrowed $140 and was charged $267 plus an additional $20 fee just a month later. Osborne says he will push for regulations, similar to those in place in other provinces, to try to control how payday lending companies operate. He says the companies prey on people who are already vulnerable.

If Osborne is looking for other provincial legislation to study, and then ignore, he need look no further than Manitoba, whose Consumer Protection Amendment Act (Payday Loans) was enacted in 2009.

This was two years after Manitoba brought in its whistleblower protection legislation, which the Danny-Dunderdale Government has been assiduously ~~ignoring~~ studying going on five years now.

Boo hoo

2011-12-30T14:03:00.004-04:00

A few choice set-up quotes from the Big Sook:

Stepping out of the shadows of private life and into the public eye, Tory leadership contender Danny Williams has a simple resolution for the new year.

“Maybe just to develop a nice thick skin,” said Williams, a lawyer and businessman.

- Danny Williams, as quoted by Tracy Barron, The Telegram, December 30, 2000

“People were concerned that I had a thin skin and that I was going to explode as a result of that. But that hasn’t happened and it won’t happen. You do learn to deal with that. Unfortunately, you do learn to accept it as part of politics.”

- Danny Williams, in interview with Dene Moore of the Canadian Press, September 29, 2003

Q: Even some locals have compared you to former Newfoundland premier Joseph Smallwood and his “my way or the highway” approach to governance. What’s your response to people who think that of you?

A: “It’s like water rolling right off my back. I can tell you right now these comments roll right off my back. Before I got into politics I had a really thin skin and I was reactive and I realized pretty quickly that the only way you can survive on this, is to have a thicker skin. So, when people make comments like that, I don’t pay any attention to them. I can’t be governed by fear, I can’t be governed by name-calling, I can’t be governed by personal attacks.”

- Danny Williams, in interview with Craig Jackson of The Telegram, July 14, 2006

And, via CBC's On Point with David Cochrane:

Williams admits that his return to private life was partly triggered by growing sensitivity to criticism.

"It got to a point where, you know, I guess some of the PR side of it was just starting to annoy me," Williams, who was known for volatile reactions to numerous events, said in the On Point interview.

"I was getting a thin skin again* and I thought, 'Look, you know, it's — you've kinda done what you set out to do. It's time to move on."

Wow.

A little bit of guttersniping from the peanut gallery, and off He stormed in a huff.

Coupled with Herself's obvious inheritance of a very thin skin, and it's enough to make a body wonder: how quickly would this farce of a government fall apart if they were faced with a real and determined opposition?

* "Again"?

Hello, chickens, welcome to the roost

2011-12-28T19:07:00.007-04:00

An amusing report from the Ceeb, just before Christmas came along and ruined everything:

Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Kathy Dunderdale is warning civil servants to temper their hopes for a hefty raise once their contracts expire.

...

"I think they have to expect a more modest increase," Dunderdale told CBC News in a year-end interview to be broadcast later this week on On Point with David Cochrane.

"Our spending at the rate that we've been doing over the last eight years — and it has been very necessary for a number of very good reasons to do that — is not sustainable in the long run," Dunderdale said.

Herewith, a chart showing the growth in the provincial public-sector payroll over the past decade and a bit. (Figures are monthly rolling twelve-month trailing totals, in order to smooth out seasonality.)

The increase, especially since 2006, is a product of both the public-sector pay raises in recent collective agreements, and the sheer increase in the provincial public sector during the ~~NDP~~ ~~Progressive Conservative~~ Williams Government years.

By late 2010, the provincial public sector accounted for fully 25% of all jobs in the province — a share unprecedented not only in Newfoundland and Labrador's recorded economic history, but in the history of any province.

It's nice to see that the "Conservatives", having spent billions buying public-sector labour peace, and quarterly popularity reports for Eternal Premier, have finally discovered fiscal sustainability.

And good luck to them as they sell their message of sustainabily to a public, a labour market, and an electorate, where, thanks to their own differently-sustainable policy choices, one in four people is directly, or nearly-directly, on the provincial government payroll.

Flies (II)

2011-12-21T11:10:00.004-04:00

Another exercise in opacity, futility, and stupidity from Dundergov, as reported today by the CBC:

The government of Newfoundland and Labrador says making food inspection records public isn't one of its priorities.

...

Now, three years after government first floated the idea of posting inspection records online, Service NL Minister Paul Davis said the province is still considering it.

Can these morons — really, there is no other word at this point — can these morons get anything done?

Royal Newfoundland Constabutory (III)

2011-12-19T21:48:00.003-04:00

A strange, belated, and — for the amount of real estate it took up — rather thin analysis of recent provincial party financing figures appeared in the Telegram on Saturday under Steve Bartlett's byline.

Bondpapers summarizes many of the real stories that Bartlett missed.

Among other weaknesses in the article is the face value at which he redeems the Royal Newfoundland Constabulatory's excuses for contributing to any party — let alone the incredible favouritism shown towards the blue team:

Aiding the political process was a familiar refrain among donors questioned, including some of the other contributors that piqued our attention, like the Royal Newfoundland Constabulary Association. It gave $2,000 to the PCs.

"The RNC Association supports the political process," president Tim Buckle said.

"Fundraising by political parties is an aspect of politics, and we have supported both (the Tories and the Liberals)."

Buckle explained the association's most common type of donation is sponsoring a team in a party's golf tournament, but he noted the organization also backs the campaigns of current or former RNC officers, like Topsail MHA Paul Davis.

This paints a picture of an even-handed organization participant in the party financing progress.

A false picture.

Even assuming, for argument's sake, that it is proper for the RNC Association to be donating at all — and that may not be a safe assumption, in light of the regulations — the RNC have very clearly favoured the Tories since their first reportable contribution shows up on the books in 1999. The RNC has, up to 2010, made $16,450 in reportable contributions to the PC Party or PC candidates, and only $700 to the Liberals, in two contributions in 1999 and 2007.

Here is the abstract of all the RNC's high-minded political donations, taken directly from Elections Newfoundland and Labrador's own reports (which date back to 1996). The table is colour-coded by party affliation. Each donation is also classed according to whether it was an Annual (A) or Election-period (E) contribution.

Year   Type  Contributor Name                              Party or Candidate (District)        Amount
1999   (E)   Royal Newfoundland Constabulary Association   Ottenheimer, John (St. John's East)   $200
1999   (A)   Coppers (RNCA Mess)                           PC Party                               200
1999   (E)   Royal Newfoundland Constabulary Association   Buckle, Paula (Waterford Valley)       200
2001   (A)   RNC Association                               PC Party                              1250
2002   (A)   RNC Association                               PC Party                              1250
2003   (E)   Royal Newfoundland Constabulary Assoc.        PC Party                              1000
2003   (A)   Royal Nfld Constabulary Association           PC Party                              1750
2004   (A)   RNC Association                               PC Party                              2000
2004   (A)   RNC Association                               PC Party                              1000
2005   (A)   RNC Association                               PC Party                              1000
2005   (A)   RNC Association                               PC Party                               800
2007   (E)   Royal Newfoundland Constabulary Assoc.        Liberal Party                          500
2008   (A)   RNC Association                               PC Party                              2000
2009   (A)   RNC Association                               PC Party                              2000
2010   (A)   Royal Newfoundland Constabulary Association   PC Party                              2000

This list does not include any contributions from any by-election since that in Terra Nova in 2009.

More to the point, it does not include the Topsail by-election of March 16, 2010, in which RNC officer Paul Davis was the successful PC Party candidate. With only days to go in 2011, the contribution reports from this, and two other provincial by-elections, are still rather conspicuously missing from the electoral office's website.

Flies

2011-12-10T01:16:00.001-04:00

With three weeks to go until the calendar starts reading 2012, the most recent Elections Newfoundland and Labrador by-election financial disclosure is from the Terra Nova by-election of November 26, 2009.

There have been three by-elections since then: those in Topsail on March 16, 2010, Conception Bay East—Bell Island more than a year ago on December 2, 2010, and Humber West almost ten months ago on February 15, 2011.

By way of comparison:

In Nova Scotia, the full report, including financials, of the June 21 by-election in Cape Breton North, was published last month.

In Ontario, financial disclosures for three by-elections held in early 2010 in Ottawa West—Nepean, Leeds—Grenville and Toronto Centre were published within the same calendar year.

In Manitoba, the financial statements for candidates in the Concordia by-election on March 2, 2010 were published by summer.

In British Columbia, financial statements for electoral events as recent as the May by-election in Vancouver—Point Grey are already available.

Metaflipflop

2011-12-08T19:38:00.002-04:00

The provincial NDP have, if belatedly, come to their senses, and are challenging one bit of Danny Williams-Government legacy, the utterly idiotic special ballot provisions, in court.

This prompted a particularly snotty response from Minister of Whatever Jerome Kennedy Is Minister Of This Month, Jerome Kennedy, who points out (correctly) that the NDP were for Danny Williams' special ballot rules, before they were against them:

PC Party responds to comments of NDP Leader on special ballots
December 8, 2011

The Progressive Conservative Party of Newfoundland and Labrador today responded to comments made by Lorraine Michael, Leader of the provincial NDP, who attempted to defend her complete reversal in position on special ballots. The NDP has taken court action to have the election results for the district of Burin-Placentia West declared void. The NDP and Julie Mitchell are presenting the argument that the use of special ballots violates the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms. In June 2007, in the House of Assembly, Ms. Michael spoke in favor of special ballots and in fact advocated for their wider use in the electoral process.

“Ms. Michael’s about-face is disturbing on a number of fronts – first of all, her flip-flop on this matter shows a lack of principles and secondly, rather than taking responsibility for her actions, she tried to blame her staff for not doing adequate research,” said Jerome Kennedy, Minister of Natural Resources, Government House Leader and MHA for Carbonear-Harbour Grace. “Our party welcomes the opinion of the court on the matter of special ballots. We take no issue whatsoever with any scrutiny of our electoral process. What is interesting though is the timing of the NDP. If they were so concerned with the process, why didn’t they take this action earlier? And why are they only concerned with one district where the NDP lost? It is obvious that the NDP are so desperate to become the Official Opposition that they have no problem tossing aside the will of the people who voted by special ballot. Ms. Michael is essentially saying to those voters, your votes do not count and I will not respect the choice you made on election day. For a party which has said democracy can only be served with the House of Assembly open, their willingness to disrespect the decision of voters when it is convenient for them is particularly hypocritical.”

Minister Kennedy added “It would be one thing if the NDP were saying they want to improve the electoral process for any future elections, but they want to overturn the will of the voters in the district of Burin-Placentia West after the fact. Democracy is a priority for Ms. Michael and the NDP only when convenient.”

Hmmm.

Superjerome seems to have a principled problem with "flip-flops". Flip-flops are bad now. People who flip-flop lack principles.

Also bad: blaming the help. However, in Ms. Michael's defence it should be noted, as a mitigating factor, she never suggested anyone "should be shot over there."

Flying the democratic flag of convenience, that, too, is a sin in Jerome's books. Or, it is now, anyway.

But here's the kicker. This matter is the subject of a long-overdue challenge under s. 3 of the Charter, possibly the most woefully under-argued of all the Charter rights. It is now before the courts.

Jerome Kennedy 2011, meet Jerome Kennedy 2008:

I say to the Opposition House Leader, as a former Minister of Justice, there is a basic principle that we do not comment on matters before the court. Now, that is accepted. It is one that I understand is enshrined in practice if not in principle. Now, how can one distinguish between the inquiry? Now, I do not know, I say to Madam Chair, the answer to that, but I think it would be prudent to seek guidance from commission counsel as to what should be going on in this House, because the last thing any of us want to do is jeopardize this inquiry.

Money can't buy you sense

2011-12-06T14:55:00.002-04:00

A quick reminder of what sound advice and decision-making you can get for $2.3-million: a $20-million make-work project in the governing party's prime target-hold district:

In May 2010, Nalcor announced that the first well of the Parsons Pond Drilling Program, Nalcor et al Seamus, which was started on February 16, 2010, reached the planned total drilling depth of 3,160 meters. Testing on this well was completed in January 2011.

In December 2010, Nalcor announced that the second well of its Parsons Pond Drilling Program, Nalcor et al Finnegan, which spud in early September, has reached total drilling depth of 3,130 meters. Natural gas was encountered during drilling. The well is currently suspended as the data is reviewed and next steps determined.

On February 17, 2011, Nalcor and its partners announced their intention not to pursue drilling of Nalcor et al Darcy well in the Parsons Pond onshore exploration program.

Sound familiar?

2011-12-03T21:16:00.001-04:00

Another blast from the past, this time the Globe and Mail of August 23, 1969:

Attawapiskat

2011-12-02T02:35:00.002-04:00

In the middle of the type of media storm that is only too familiar to Labrador and to many Aboriginal communities across Canada, âpihtawikosisân dishes out something all too often missing from the coverage.

Facts.

Wow. Well worth the read.

Delete delete delete

2011-11-29T15:06:00.004-04:00

In its entirety, page 5 of the NS-NL Memorandum of Understanding, as published yesterday by Nova Scotia, six hours before Newfoundland and Labrador did the same:

And, in its entirety, page 5 as it appears today:

One more thing

2011-11-29T11:50:00.003-04:00

BondPapers deconstructs yesterday's latest Muskrat McGuffin.

To which, he could have added this curiosity: the much-fuller version of the document released by the Nova Scotians (pdf link) bore the following signature block — since removed — when it was posted to teh intertubes yesterday.

Note the date.

Terminator

2011-11-28T14:19:00.002-04:00

For the record, Term 19 of the Terms Sheet which constitutes the entiret of the Muskrat Falls "deal". (Underlining emphasis added.)
Original, massively and unneccessarily bloated, PDF version of the document available here.

All across the province

2011-11-28T12:51:00.002-04:00

The Hebron Public Review is busy holding public sessions all across the province.

Here's a map:

Timelines

2011-11-24T13:02:00.004-04:00

Then:

At a campaign stop in Carbonear Oct. 6 [2007], Williams pledged that his government would implement whistleblower laws in the first session of the legislature after the election.

"We'll get that on at the very earliest opportunity," Williams said in response to questions from reporters last October.

"The very first session of the House that we have, that's something we'll have a look at. As a matter of fact, there'd be no reason why we wouldn't get it on (the agenda)."

Later:

Newfoundland and Labrador's justice minister says Whistleblower legislation - which former premier Danny Williams promised to create in 2008 - won't be introduced this year.

"This is a significant piece of legislation. A lot of work has been done on it," said Felix Collins responding in the provincial legislature to a question from Liberal opposition MHA Kelvin Parsons.

"The provinces that have it are undergoing the regular growing pains of new legislation. We are monitoring that to see what best practices come out of it. So when we produce our legislation it will be the best piece of legislation that we can possible come up with."

Now, from a James McLeod report in today's Telegram (sadly not on the public intertubes):

Legislation to protect whistleblowers was first promised by then-premier Danny Williams in 2007.

More than four years later, it has yet to be enacted, and Justice Minister Felix Collins wouldn’t commit to doing so at any time in the next four years.

“You’re not going to get a commitment from me on any timelines on that,” he said. “Not only whistleblower legislation, but on anything. It’s difficult to speculate and lay a date because if you don’t follow the date, then someone calls back and tells you you didn’t stick to your date.”

However, Collins said they’re working on it by reviewing legislation in other provinces and checking monthly to see how the implementation is working.

Surely, if Collins and his shop are working so very diligently on this file, there's a small mountain of ATIPpable paper on it.

Right?

Getting things done

2011-11-21T11:41:00.002-04:00

Dave Bartlett reports for today's Telegram:

While provincial regulations state a town or city must review its municipal plan every five years, St. John's defered its review of the 2003 plan in March 2008 until the province had completed its regional plan for the Northeast Avalon.

However, council voted in May of this year to rescind that decision and to begin work on a new plan, as it's still unclear when the province will complete its regional plan.

Vancouver votes

2011-11-20T13:51:00.003-04:00

Here, via the City of Vancouver elections office, is a map by voting division showing the results of yesterday's mayoral election:

By way of comparison, here are the regular poll-by-poll results of the 2009 British Columbia provincial election, with colour-grading of poll-winning party's share of the vote. Tie polls are in grey, white polls within the city of Vancouver were merged with neighbouring apartment polls, which are not shown. Vancouver has many, many, many apartment polls:

The forecast (III)

2011-11-16T19:36:00.004-04:00

Finance Minister Whoever It Is This Year makes a confession. CP's Sue Bailey reports:

Newfoundland and Labrador's fiscal update is an eye-popping revision that projects a surplus of almost $756 million — up from $59.1 million forecast in April's provincial budget.

But Finance Minister Tom Marshall deflected any suggestion of low-balling, citing rising oil prices and higher than expected offshore production.

...

"We're trying to guess what the average price of oil's going to be, per barrel, for 12 months. Well, I'm no good at it. And you're no good at it," he told reporters.

On the other hand, we can confidently predict the price of oil for decades to come:

MR. MARSHALL: Mr. Speaker, I thank the hon. member for her question, which is a very important one.

Our government believes very strongly that we want to keep hydro rates for the people of this Province down. We do not want them to rise; we want them to go down.

SOME HON. MEMBERS: Hear, hear!

MR. MARSHALL: If we do not get off oil, if we do not get off Holyrood, which produces electricity based on oil, which is going higher and higher and higher, people in this Province are going to have to pay higher electricity. The way to stop that is to get off Holyrood and to go to the Lower Churchill River. When we are ready to go we are going to get the guarantee from the federal Government of Canada, which is going to reduce our costs by 2 per cent on the debt.

A political short story

2011-11-13T22:39:00.000-04:00

During the 1996 provincial election campaign, a Dean McDonald in St. John's contributed $250.00 to Liberal candidate Julie Bettney's local campaign in Mount Pearl.

During the 1999 provincial election campaign, a Dean MacDonald in St. John's contributed $1000 to Liberal candidates Paul Dicks in Humber West, $250 to Julie Bettney in Mount Pearl, $250 to Pete Soucy in Signal Hill–Quidi Vidi, and $250 to Tom McGrath in St. John's East.

The End.

Odd map out

2011-11-05T23:18:00.008-03:00

Britain, Canada, Australia, and the United States share much in their political systems, including bicameralism, federalism in the case of the latter three, single-member electoral districts for national-level elections, and, with the wonderful wrinkle of Australia's preferential balloting system, first-past-the-post voting for elections to the lower house of the national-level legislature.

Still, one of these things is decidedly not like the others. Here are the national-level electoral maps of the largest cities in each of the four countries, starting with the central urban portion of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia:

Toronto, Ontario, Canada:

London, England, United Kingdom:

And New York, New York, U.S.A.:

The truly scary thing: New York's not even the worst. Try Miami. Or Chicago.

Rolling in dough

2011-11-02T19:59:00.004-03:00

Our Dear Economist has crunched the numbers on Hebron, as Barb Sweet reports for The Telegram:

Although $20 billion is the expected spinoff, variables including the price of oil and the value of the Canadian dollar against the U.S., put the Hebron project’s potential taxes and royalties to the province at a range of $11 billion to $34 billion over its lifespan, depending on the worst and best case scenarios.

Between 2004 and 2010, the "Conservative" government of Danny Williams increased provincial program expenditures by a nudge under $2.7-billion.

Without taking into account inflation, the Hebron payoff can be re-expressed thusly:

Although 7.4 years worth of Williams Government program spending increases is the expected spinoff, variables including the price of oil and the value of the Canadian dollar against the U.S., put the Hebron project’s potential taxes and royalties to the province at a range of 4.1 to 12.6 years worth of Williams Government program spending increases over its lifespan, depending on the worst and best case scenarios.

Salesmen

2011-11-02T14:11:00.002-03:00

Back in the spring, then-Natural Resources Minister, and Mastermind of Muskrat Falls, Shawn Skinner, told the House of Assembly that there would be no Muskrat Falls sales job:

MR. SKINNER: One thing we are not trying to do, or certainly I am not trying to do as minister, is to try to convince people. What I am trying to do is inform people. I believe my job is to inform people, not to convince people. I have enough respect for the people on the opposite side of the House and for the rest of the people in this Province that once they have the information, they will make up their own minds as to what it is they believe should or should not happen. I am not here to try to convince people; I am not here to try to sell people. I am here to try to inform people and we have done that. We have put a lot of information out there.

This was scant weeks before Nalcor itself embarked on yet another round of Definitely Not a Sales Job.

Unfortunately for Mastermind, the burghers of St. John's Centre decided in October that it was time for him to try new challenges. Thus, Mastermind's successor in office is going into sales.

All just a little bitta history repeating (VII)

2011-11-01T20:14:00.003-03:00

From the St. John's Public Ledger of March 27, 1877, a pseudonymous letter defending the Carter government. More information on the public figures referred to can be found via the hotlinks.

Some of the letter-writer's arguments seem awfully familiar; timeless, even.

FOR THE PUBLIC LEDGER

Considerable feeling having been manifested in the Outports with reference to the contemplated employment by the Government of Professor Hind, on a survey on the Labrador coast, I think I might send to you an excerp [sic] of the expressions made use of from a conversation I had with one of our leading men in this locality. With some things I cordially agree with my opponent, but if the Government have done wrong in this matter, it is simply the result of acting too hastily in their over-zeal to conserve the interests of the public. I fully believe that it was from a pure motive, and a desire to advance the welfare of the country generally that prompted the action on the part of the Government, and therefore they should not be condemned in their laudable endeavours to benefit the people. Who of us does not commit an error once in a while? and an enterprise such as this is entirely an experiment, which may result in much good. Who amongst use would like to see the Government fold their hands and do nothing? I mean those of us who support the present Government. Ask yourselves what evil have they done? You say, “they have increased their own salaries.”

What Government ever came into power that would not have done the same?

But I ask you as a man, what injury have the present Government done yourself.

“None; but they have not looked after their friends.”

“But you must remember that the way to make lasting friends is by endeavouring to do what is right.”

“But they did not turn out Major Renouf.”

“In that I agree with you; but they will see that he will do what is right, and will be ready to be informed of the fact if he does not do so.”

“They have appointed a light-house keeper at Capt St. Francis from St. John's.”

“You must remember that it is in the Eastern District of St. John's, and that I think is a good reason why the appointment should be so chosen; although I agree with you that amidst the agitation that was kept up so long by the Conception Bay people about that light-house, these people should have been consulted in the matter.”

“Do you know anything that the general public does not know, of the so-called wrong-doing of the present Government; if so, I should like to hear from you. But if it is such fault-finding as comes from the Opposition in the House of Asembly, I must tell you that that is all the Opposition care for, to find all the fault they can, justly or unjustly, as long as they can pick a fault to complain of. This fault-finding on their part is absolutely necessary in order to strengthen their position with their constituents, at the next general election.”

“But the pensions will take the most of our earnings to support them in future.”

“I am opposed to pensions myself, as it is at present; but you must know that this matter did not originate with the present government. It will be for you to ask what questions and get what pledges you require at the next elections; and I am convinced that these pledges will be faithfully carried out if the present party be again returned to power; and of this I have not the slightest doubt. It is useless to expect utter impossibilities; and it can be plainly seen what is the intention of the Opposition in the course of their perpetual fault-finding. I, for one, would be the first to find fault with, and expose any Government who would attempt to blind-fold the people in any way, and I am free to admit that the contemplated employment of Professor Hind, is not as satisfactory to me was I would wish it to be; still there is nothing unasked in the matter; and if an error has been committed, it is simply an error in judgment, and one error committed with the purest of motives, and having in view the future welfare of our colony. And if I agree with you that governmental officers ought to look better than they do look, you must certainly coincide with me that under another government they might have looked far worse. As matters stand now, we can boast of peace in our outharbors, and that is what we could not procure before.”
An Outharbor Man,
Who seeks neither office nor pay.

Moonlighting

2011-11-01T12:30:00.002-03:00

This just in!

2011-10-31T00:49:00.001-03:00

From VOCM on Saturday, the shocking and surprising news that Premier Kathy Dunderdale is pleased with Premier Kathy Dunderdale's cabinet:

(Some of) Alberta votes (III)

2011-10-29T22:17:00.003-03:00

Somewhat belatedly, here is the map of the final Alberta PC leadership election, district-by-district, after the redistribution of Horner's preferences to the final two candidates.

The previous maps (First Ballot, Second Ballot) used a two-tone colour scheme to distinguish between a candidate receiving a majority or a plurality of the vote. Since, in a final, two-candidate count, every result will necessarily be 50% or more, the tones here distinguish big honkin' majorities (60% or more) from mere majorities of 50-something percent.

Turnabout

2011-10-29T20:58:00.002-03:00

A special for all of Tom Osborne's many friends on the internet, who are entirely spontaneously expressing their outrage that the only St. John's minister in Kathy Dunderdale's cabinet is Kathy Dunderdale:

You can't have it both ways. If you're going to cut the cabinet back then obviously certain portions of the province, minute portions of the province, can be left out.

The Word of Our Dan. (Glory Be to Him.)

Reduction ad absurdam (II)

2011-10-25T13:16:00.004-03:00

Further to the previous, there's some wonkiness in the provincial budget estimates for FY 2005-06. However, here's a different measure of provgov spending, based on Public Accounts data, going back to FY 2003-04, the last budget under the former provincial Liberal government.

The large figures show the total provincial government's program expenditures (i.e., money spent on everything other than servicing the debt), in millions of dollars. The smaller figures show the year-over-year change in program spending.

Other than a modest decrease in their first year in office, with the attendant damage to his CRA ego ratings that ensured he'd never try that again, the "Conservatives" under Danny Williams never reduced program spending, making it really quite difficult for them to reduce "further" under Kathy Dunderdale.

Note Danny Williams' parting gift to the more recent, right-hand side of the chart: between FY 2007-08 and his final year in office, provincial program expenditures were upwardly "reduced" by 35%.

[Data source: Fiscal Reference Tables]

Reduction ad absurdam

2011-10-25T00:22:00.005-03:00

A really strange comment from Premier Dunderdale, quoted by Steve Bartlett in Saturday's Telegram:

Dunderdale doesn’t agree with those who suggest government spending is out of control. In last year’s budget, she notes, new spending was around two per cent.

“We’re going to try to reduce it even further,” she says.

In order to reduce something further, don't you have to be reducing it in the first place?

This chart — with data taken straight out of the provincial government's own budgetary estimates (estimates for fiscal year 2011-12, revised estimates for all past years) show just how successful her government has been at "reducing" program expenditures. These figures exclude Consolidated Fund Services (i.e., payments on the debt and unfunded pension liabilities):

Other than FY 2006-07, the year-over-year increase in provincial program expenditures under the "Conservative" government has never been less than 6%.

Mapping the way to 2012

2011-10-22T00:26:00.007-03:00

Quebec's Commission de la représentation électorale tabled its final report this past week, setting out the new electoral boundaries by which the next provincial election will be fought in the province (unless it is called before January 21st).

There's lots more information here, and the Commission, as it did in the last redistribution, has created a wonderful interactive mapamajig that you can play with, comparing old and new boundaries. If your province's electoral office doesn't already do this, it's not to early to nag them into doing so.

Of the 125 new electoral districts in Quebec, 39 are entirely unchanged from the former electoral map, including most of those in central and eastern Montreal. Some of the unchanged districts include Pointe-aux-Trembles, both of the Beauces, Crémazie, Mirabel, and Gouin.

Another 10 have boundary changes that are entirely cosmetic, which involve no transfers of population from one district to another (Ungava, Chutes-de-la-Chaudière, Dubuc), or which involve only a tiny handful of electors (Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne in central Montreal gains a chunk of territory, but only 9 electors, from neighbouring Notre-Dame-de-Grâce.)

There are a further 19 former electoral districts which are transposed intact into new electoral districts, by the addition of polls from neighbouring districts. In some cases, the tinkering is minor, as in Bonaventure, which, otherwise unchanged, gains the municipality of Chandler from the former Gaspé. Similarly, Abitibi-Ouest gains a few polls from Abitibi-Est, or Groulx from Blainville. Other additions are much more substantial: all of the former Montmagny—L'Islet is rolled into the new Côte-du-Sud, along with a large chunk of the former Kamouraska—Témiscouata; the rest of the latter is combined with a bit of the former Rimouski and all of the former Rivière-du-Loup into the new Rivière-du-Loup—Témiscouata. All of old Matapédia is combined with most of old Matane into Matapédia—Matane; the rest of old Matane is rolled into the redrawn Gaspé.

(If you're thinking a lot of these examples are from the Bas-Saint-Laurent/Gaspésie region, you're right: what was nine districts on the old map, has been condensed to seven, continuing a trend that has persisted since Quebec instituted an arms-length electoral boundaries commission decades ago.)

This leaves 57 electoral districts which have been cobbled together by combing mismatched parts from neighbouring former districts. In most cases, there is enough kernel left of one of the old districts that it has a successor in name and geography in the new map. However, there are several of these redrawn districts which have to be considered as entirely "new": Drummond–Bois-Francs, Granby, Lotbinière–Frontenac, Montarville, Saint-Jérôme, Sainte-Rose, and Sanguinet.

As an exercise, this corner has transposed the results of the 2008 election into the new boundaries, according to the following logical rules:

Where a former riding is left intact, or almost entirely intact, all of its votes, including early votes, are attributed to the "new" riding.

Where a former riding is left intact but combined with polls from a neighbouring former riding, all of the intact riding's votes, including early votes, are attributed to the new riding, along with all of the regular polls that are transferred from the broken-up riding.

Where a new riding is comprised of portions of two or more former ridings, the new riding's vote is the sum of all of the regular polls that were combined to make the new riding. For the purposes of this exercise, advance and special ballots are discounted.

For all rural and many urban riding changes, Elections Quebec's practice of grouping polls into "Secteurs", which respect municipal boundaries, makes it easy to transpose votes from the 2008 to the 2011 electoral boundaries. For 35 of the new electoral districts, involving changes in urban and suburban areas, GIS software made it possible to transpose votes on a poll-by-poll basis. In a small handful of cases (about five or six) estimates instead of exact counts were required, where new electoral boundaries split a former polling division between two electoral districts.

Using these methods, the 2008 vote transposed into the new boundaries would yield 63 Liberal (PLQ) MNAs (-3 from 2008); 53 Péquistes (+2); 8 Adéquistes (+1); and one Québec Solidaire member (no change). This is assuming all things are equal. Of course, in Quebec these days, they are not. But please play along.

The provisional exclusion of the harder-to transpose advance and special ballots would change the outcome in a number of districts which were closely-fought if you look at the regular polls alone. However, early voters in most parts of Quebec tend to skew quite strongly towards Liberals compared to the overall vote or the vote in regular polling divisions. Caveat lector.

All of the intact districts, obviously, would stay in the same column if the 2008 election re-ran on the same boundaries. Similarly, all of the new districts comprised of an intact former district plus parts of former districts would notionally stay with the party which won the former district at the core of the new one. (For example, the old Matapédia voted PQ, as would the new Matapédia–Matane.)

These are the modified districts whose outcome notionally changes hands with the transposition:

Abitibi-Est: Tilts from narrow PLQ to narrow PQ on the transposition; would probably tilt back to the PLQ column with the inclusion of early voters.

Jean-Lesage: A narrow PQ gain from the PLQ in the transposition of regular polls, as it loses some Liberal polls in the east, and gains some PQ polls in the west, but this is another riding where Liberal-heavy early voting would easily make a big difference in a real election.

Montmorency: The suburbanification of this riding narrowly favours the ADQ over the PLQ in the transposed regular polls, but could easily turn around once Liberal early voters are included.

Trois-Rivières: Trois-Rivières swaps some electoral spit with Maskinongé to the west, with each riding giving up some polls to the other. The net effect, however, favours the PQ. This is also a rare case where early voters bucked the Quebec trend, and where the PQ more evenly matched the PLQ among advance and special ballots voters.

Vanier–Les Rivières: Notionally tilts to the ADQ after its boundaries are rejigged, but solidly-Liberal early voters would give the advantage back to the PLQ.

And here's the breakdown of the truly "new" districts:

Drummond–Bois-Francs: A PLQ win over the PQ.

Granby: An ADQ win, carved out of the former Shefford. The area around Granby was one of the few in Montérégie to survive the splintering of the 2007 breakthrough ADQ vote to the PQ and PLQ a year later.

Lotbinière–Frontenac: Despite the ADQ strength in the former Lotbinière, this district transposes to the PLQ, based on the Liberal strength in the former Frontenac polls around Thetford Mines.

Montarville: One of the new South Shore suburban ridings, it is a narrow (2%) PLQ win over the PQ in the transposition, but a more comfortable PLQ victory when early voters are included.

Saint-Jérôme: A new riding carved out of a rapidly-growing, solidly PQ northern Montreal exurb.

Sainte-Rose: A new Laval riding, narrowly Liberal on the transposition, more solidly Liberal once early voters are factored in, but likely to be one of the new Laval belwethers. Laval ridings have a long history of mirroring the federal and provincial outcome in Quebec.

Sanguinet: The South Shore answer to Saint-Jérôme, another new riding carved out of a fast-growing, PQ-trending suburban area.

Happy Thanksgeaster (II)

2011-10-20T17:00:00.000-03:00

A wise elf notes that some provincial legislatures, including the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly, reconstitute themselves post-election by having a mostly-ceremonial sitting to swear in the members (and usually also elect a Speaker), followed, not necessarily in short order, by a Throne Speech, which may be many weeks later.

In order to provide an apples:apples comparison, here is the same chart as posted on Wednesday, but amended to measure the break as between election day and the subsequent Speech from the Throne.

While several provincial legislatures grow bigger gaps by this measure, that of Newfoundland and Labrador's House of Assembly in 2007 still takes the crown among the ten most recent re-convenings, today's in Manitoba not included.

* * *

Yes, let's talk about leadership

2011-10-20T11:29:00.004-03:00

Dean MacDonald wants to talk about leadership. He started to talk about that subject in a speech yesterday. James McLeod The Telegram reports:

In the speech, MacDonald took several shots at Premier Kathy Dunderdale, saying she basically bought votes with “a truckload of money” in the days leading up to the provincial election.

It is not entirely clear from the context how much money is in a "truckload". Are we talking a Mack truckload or a metric truckload? Meh, it doesn't matter.

What does matter, is the rather more important question of the whereabouts of Dean MacDonald — he who is so very concerned about leadership and all that — between 2003 and 2011.

Where was Dean, and his concern for leadership, and his eagerness to express that concern, as provincial public-sector spending, and the public-sector payroll, ballooned, especially in the past five fiscal years?

Where was Dean, and his earnest, principled opposition to vote-buying, in 2007?

Deanie took a shot at Dunderdale. Fair enough, and well-warranted.

Where were his gun and ammo while Danny Williams was in office?

There's more:

He also slammed Dunderdale for leaving the House of Assembly closed for most of the year.

“The House of Assembly isn’t a pit stop on the race around the track,” he said. “It’s arrogant. It’s disrespectful.”

Where was his concern about disrespect when Danny Williams called the House of Assembly "wasted time"?

Where was this man's opposition to arrogance in 2007, when Danny Williams gave his newly re-elected government a five-month break from the House of Assembly?

When, as in every year since 2003 inclusive, the House of Assembly sat for fewer days than at least one territorial legislature? When it sat fewer times during Danny Williams' entire Premiership, than it did during the first four of that of Clyde Wells?

Or when St. John's City Council has met as many, or more times than the Hous, in five of the past nine years?

Where did he conceal his concern for parliamentary democracy and its institutions between October 2003 and October 2011? What spider hole was it lurking in all that time?

There's more:

On the divide between rural and urban portions of the province, he called it cheap politics, and destructive.

“It’s politics at its worst,” he said. “It’s not about the townies versus the baymen — we all know the baymen are going to win that one.”

Presumably, it was also the worst kind of politics back in 2006, when its practitioner was a guy named Danny Williams. Without a time machine to go back and figure out Dean MacDonald's whereabouts at that epoch, we will never know.

And you better believe there's more:

But Macdonald also took aim at several of the Liberal party’s sacred cows — namely, Muskrat Falls and the divide between rural and urban Newfoundland and Labrador.

The Liberal Party has aggressively attacked the plan to build a hydroelectric dam at Muskrat Falls in Labrador. But MacDonald said he’s convinced it’s basically a good idea, and a good deal.

“While the debate will focus on the immediate, we have to think long-term again. If we build that thing, it’s there for 100 years,” he said. “When we think about a $6-billion investment in the Lower Churchill is expensive, well, talk to someone in 50 years.

A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away, there was a guy who shared Dean MacDonald's name, who melodramatically bailed from the board of Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro over his principled opposition to a different proposed Lower Churchill project.

That Dean MacDonald rationalized his opposition in these terms:

Mr. MacDonald said Newfoundland and Labrador should not sign the proposed agreement because it doesn't provide for significant amounts of electrical power to be diverted from the main transmission lines to proposed economic development in Labrador.

"Labrador is being marginalized by this deal," Mr. MacDonald said. "They would never have a steady stream of affordable power."

Where is the modern Dean MacDonald's concern about the marginalizationof Labrador, or the affordability of power?

Perhaps Dean MacDonald, like more than a few others these days, is developing a case of buyer's remorse.

Or perhaps there's some other explanation for why there's at least three areas of public policy where Dean MacDonald was either silent, eerily silent, for as long as Danny Williams was in power, and one other where the 2011 version of Dean MacDonald is at odds with the Dean MacDonald from nine years ago.

Dean MacDonald may genuinely be concerned about leadership, vision, and the future of the province.

But Dean MacDonald is not a solution.

He is a perfect encapsulation of the problem.

Might be flies on some of them guys

2011-10-20T11:14:00.003-03:00

But there ain't no flies on Manitoba. Just sixteen days after being re-elected, Greg Selinger's NDP government is re-opening the legislature for a fall session.

Happy Thanksgeaster

2011-10-19T00:09:00.004-03:00

This chart compares the gap between election and recall of the legislature, after the most recent election in each of the ten provinces. (This fall's elections are not included, as legislatures have not reconvened yet.)

All the elections are aligned on "E" day (for election). The bar to the left of "E" shows the duration of the election campaign. The election campaigns are colour-coded by season; brown for fall, green for spring, and Alberta's late-winter election in blue. An elections which resulted in the change of government is marked with an asterisk.

The election campaigns are also portrayed proportionate to their length. Newfoundland and Labrador provincial elections are the shortest in the country by about eight days; and, no, the fixed election date is no excuse either, given that most of the other provincial elections were also run under fixed date legislation.

The peach-coloured bar represents the break between the election and the resumption of legislative activity, with the length of that gap indicated. The legislature sat during some or all of the time-period rendered in pale blue.

After the 2007 election, the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly did no reconvene for five months. Only British Columbia's break topped 100 days.

Re-elected or newly-elected governments in the nine provinces west of the Cabot Strait averaged 41 days after the election before reconvening the legislature. Excluding BC, the average drops to 33 days.

Premier Dunderdale uses the excuse that she has to shuffle her cabinet, get everyone briefed, and come up with some legislation to bring before the House. Almost her entire incumbent caucus and cabinet was re-elected last Tuesday. The last four newly-elected provincial governments (PEI, NS, NB, and SK), with completely new cabinets and legislative agendas, averaged just under 30 days before the legislature was back in session. Working forward from October 11, 2011, would allow MHAs a break until after Remembrance Day activities back in their districts, and a fall session of historically-typical length before heading back for the Christmas break.

So much for Excuse No. 1.

Then there's the alternative explanation that all the hard, busy work of shuffling minister and briefing them (presumably, as in the good ol' days of 2009 and 2010, with as little ATIPpable paper trail as possible) will take us into Christmas. And we can't have that.

The four most recent fall provincial elections (other than in NL) saw legislatures resume after an average of 37 days. Two of those were also change-of-government elections. Again, a break of this length would allow the House of Assembly to return in mid-October, after Remembrance Day events, with an easy three sitting weeks thereafter slotting comfortable into just about any calendar anywhere else in the country.

So much for Excuse No. 2.

Any other excuses?

A tale of two cities

2011-10-18T01:26:00.000-03:00

The following two charts show the pattern of corporate and business contributions to provincial political parties in Newfoundland and Labrador, and Nova Scotia, made by donors in each province's respective capital city region. Colour-coding is per the traditional colour scheme for the three main parties. (There is also a small amount showing for the Nova Scotia Greens in 2009.)

Election-year columns are indicated with an asterix. Note that both charts are at the same vertical scale.

Between 2005 and 2009, over two election campaign cycles, business and corporate donors in metro Halifax contributed just over $1.5-million to NS provincial political parties and candidates.

Of that amount, 57% went to the PCs, 32% to the Liberals, and 11% to the NDP. The ratio of PC:Lib contributions was, at its HIGHEST, $2.74:$1.00. In 2009, the business sector actually slightly favoured the Liberals over the PCs, $1.00:$0.91

Between 2005 and 2009, over one election campaign cycle, business and corporate donors in metro St. John's contributed just over $1.9-million to NL provincial political parties and candidates.

Of that amount, 89% went to the PCs, 11% to the Liberals, and 0.2% to the NDP. The ratio of PC:Lib contributions was, at its LOWEST, $5.58:$1.00. In 2008, it was $17.17:$1.00.

Halifax has a metropolitan population of just over 400,000, and numerous regional corporate head offices.

St. John's has a metropolitan population of just under 200,000, and fewer head offices.

Corporate donations to parties and candidates were prohibited in Nova Scotia starting in 2010.

[Data source, Elections Nova Scotia and Elections Newfoundland and Labrador financial reports, 2005-2009 inclusive. "Metro St. John's" includes donations listed as being made from St. John's and all municipalities from Bay Bulls to Conception Bay South, and north of that line. "Metro Halifax" includes all contributions listed as being from Halifax, Darmouth, Bedford, Cole Harbour, any of the Sackvilles, and other addresses sharing a three-digit postal FSA prefix with the urban and suburban portions of Halifax County.]

Vexatiously Omitting Contextual Matter

2011-10-17T23:08:00.005-03:00

Last Thursday, VOCM reported:

NL Leading Country in GDP Growth: BMO
Thursday, October 13, 2011

Despite the fact growth in the province's economy is cooling, Newfoundland and Labrador will still lead the country in GDP growth according to BMO. Economist Robert Kavcic says our economy will grow by 3.5 percent thanks to construction and offshore oil projects. He says the biggest economic driver is construction, with government spending expected to total more than one billion dollars in the current fiscal year. Kavcic predicts growth will decelerate next year as fiscal stimulus winds down.

BMO's full monitor, in fact, goes on to state:

Atlantic Canada should see growth below 2% through 2012. ... Newfoundland & Labrador is an exception, as it is expected to grow a robust 3.5% this year,
thanks to energy-sector investment and a continued commitment to aggressive capital spending by the Province. But, that pace will also cool by 2012 as some projects begin to wind down.

...

Saskatchewan is one of only two provinces (the other is Newfoundland and Labrador) on track to be in the black this fiscal year, and the only one projected to be there persistently in the future.

...

Newfoundland and Labrador’s Public Accounts for FY10/11 and midyear fiscal update for FY11/12 are pending. In this spring’s Budget, the Province projected a $59 mln surplus for FY11/12 (0.2% of GDP), after an estimated $485 mln surplus in FY10/11 (1.6%). Budget balances were projected to switch to deficits in FY12/13 and FY13/14 ($496 mln and $310 mln, respectively), before returning to surplus in FY14/15.

Voting with their wallets (II)

2011-10-17T05:15:00.000-03:00

An interesting bit of commentary from Craig Westcott, via Polemic and Paradox:

Examine the record if you’re in doubt that the provincial Tories have shifted several leagues to the left. Since taking office under Danny Williams in 2003, the current administration has grown the cost of government by 82 per cent in eight years. Most of the growth occurred in the last six years. In February 2010, Statistics Canada reported that the provincial government had 54,761 people on the payroll. That includes nurses, teachers, wardens and police officers, along with the direct line civil servants at Confederation Building. The number has increased substantially since then.

In a province with a fit and willing workforce of just over 150,000, a civil service of that size is clearly not sustainable. But add to that figure the demographic implosion already under way and the looming drop in oil production and the approaching crash promises to be potentially cataclysmic. In just nine years, 26 per cent of the population of Newfoundland and Labrador will be 65 years of age or older. That’s more than one quarter of our citizens who will be retired and needing increased levels of health care and social supports.

This graying of our citizenry is taking place after oil production has peaked and is already winding down. Essentially, the province has about 20 years of reserves left and they are declining. There will be a bump in production when Hebron comes on stream in six years time, but it will be short-lived. The trend of diminishing oil revenues for government coffers is clear for anyone who cares to look.

Unfortunately, very few among us, including leaders in the business community and the House of Assembly, have cared, or should that be dared, to look.

Economist Wade Locke has predicted a decade of provincial government deficits ranging between half a billion and a billion-and-a-half dollars annually starting next fiscal year.

What has our so-called ‘conservative’ government done to prepare for and mitigate the repercussions of this looming fiscal blow? Led first by Danny Williams and now Kathy Dunderdale, they have been shovelling oil dollars into the ever growing maw of government, all for the purpose of staying popular and getting re-elected. Until the ascendance last year of Jo Mark Zurel to the presidency of the St. John’s Board of Trade, the leaders of our local business community lustily cheered them on.

Indeed.

On that last point, this chart shows the remarkable Support for Democracy exhibited by capital-area business donors to the three political parties since the dawn of recorded history (in 1996). Remember, these figures are ONLY for corporate and small-business donors from the northeast Avalon (Bay Bulls to Conception Bay South, and points north of that line). They do not include personal or union donors from the metro St. John's area, or donors of any kind from anywhere outside the northeast Avalon.

Paler colours indicate fundraising in election years, which is not directly comparable to non-election years. And yes, all three parties are represented on the chart. Barely.

In 2010, the governing Progressive Conservatives raised $690,000 in reportable contributions, versus the Liberals $31,000 and the NDP's $59,000. That is the highest amount the Tories have ever raised in an off-election year.

Of the PC total that year, fully $383,000 — over 55% — came from business donors in the greater St. John's area.

Between 2004 and 2010 inclusive, the first full year that the Williams supposed "Conservatives" were in power, the northeast Avalon business community has favoured the "Conservatives" almost nine to one over the other major parties combined. Of every St. John's area business dollar pumped into political financing in those seven years, 89.7 cents have gone to the Tories, 10.1 to the Liberals, and just 2/10 of a cent to the NDP.

In the entire fifteen-year history of Elections NL financial disclosures published on the intertubes, St. John's area business donors have given a grand total of just under $16,000 to the NDP or NDP candidates — one quarter of one percent of all their contributions to all parties and party candidates during that period.

The business community in St. John's clearly has something against the NDP. And their eagerness to be on the Government Side was never as enthusiastic, even in the Tobin years, as it has been since 2003.

And yet, thanks in no small part to their own unwavering support for the democratic process, that same business community have been instrumental in helping to elect, re-elect, and preserve in office a government and party so left-wing it would make every NDP government in the history of Canada blush blue in comparison.

Good going, guys.

[Data source: Elections NL financial disclosures. Figures for a handful of minor parties and independent candidates excluded. Data does not incorporate the still-unpublished financial returns for the two by-elections held in 2010.]

37-33

2011-10-17T01:55:00.001-03:00

Tonight, St. John's City Council is having one of its regular meetings.

This will be its 37th meeting of the year.

So far this year, the House of Assembly has met 33 times.

On the importance of debate (III)

2011-10-16T19:23:00.002-03:00

From the proceedings of the House of Assembly on May 16, 2001.

Yet again, one might wonder what became of that nice Mr. Ottenheimer:

MR. OTTENHEIMER: Yesterday in the House, the Deputy Premier was asked directly whether the government would make a commitment that before a Voisey’s Bay deal is signed, final and binding, that the government will bring it to this Legislature for debate and put it before the people of the Province so they can see and comment on what is in the deal. Mr. Speaker, the Deputy Premier answered quite simply by saying: Yes, Mr. Speaker.

The Premier, while he was Minister of Mines and Energy, on November 29 and November 30, and again on December 6, 1999, was asked the very same question here in this House and all three times he said, Mr. Speaker, no.

I would like to ask the Premier to tell the people of the Province, for the record today, Mr. Premier: Will you make a commitment that before the government signs a final and binding Voisey’s Bay development deal, the government will put that deal before the people of the Province for scrutiny and input and bring it to this Legislature for debate?

PREMIER GRIMES: Mr. Speaker, let me say this: I know he is particularly sensitive today. He is not having a good day and he should read the bill. Bill 10 would be the real answer, Mr. Speaker.

SOME HON. MEMBERS: Hear, hear!

PREMIER GRIMES: Mr. Speaker, I would ask that the critic for Mines and Energy maybe check with the Leader of the Opposition, based upon what he said today about wanting to debate outside the Legislature, whether he really wants to ask the question he just asked. Do you want the debate in the Legislature or not? Because on Bill 10 he wants to have the debate outside the Legislature, Mr. Speaker.

MR. OTTENHEIMER: The Premier reminds me of the question: Are you an indecisive person? And the response being: Well, Sir, yes and no.

SOME HON. MEMBERS: Hear, hear!

MR. OTTENHEIMER: I ask the Premier, Mr. Speaker: What is it? Is it the position that his Minister of Mines and Energy has alluded to? Is it the position of yesterday, of the Deputy Premier? Or, is it his position of 1999? What is it, Premier? How will this issue be determined once and for all? Will the people of this Province be a part of this very significant public issue?

PREMIER GRIMES: I commend the hon. member on his perfect and very apt description of the Opposition today -

SOME HON. MEMBERS: Hear, hear!

PREMIER GRIMES: - because they do not know which particular view they want to take.

Mr. Speaker, let the record be very clear on this issue. With respect to Voisey’s Bay or any other issue of significance and importance in Newfoundland and Labrador, this government’s insistence is that the people of Newfoundland and Labrador will know the details of anything that is done; and they will be convinced by knowing the details, Mr. Speaker, in every public, possible way, whether it is inside or outside of the Legislature, whatever is most appropriate at the time. They will be convinced because they will see the details. We want them to know the details because then the fearmongering and the criticism of the Opposition will be exposed for what it is. They are frightened to death to see something that is good for Newfoundland and Labrador happen. They do not want it to happen. The people of Newfoundland and Labrador will see the details inside or outside the Legislature, and we will insist upon it because we know that when they see the details in a deal that is good for Newfoundland and Labrador they will fully endorse and support the initiatives that government takes on their behalf.

Barbarians at the gates

2011-10-16T11:20:00.000-03:00

On Tuesday, the Progressive Conservatives under Kathy Dunderdale won 37 seats on 56% of the vote. By any standards a smashing electoral success.

So why are there more than a few nervous Tory nellies walking around these days? The vote-share numbers provide a clue:

           PC     Lib    NDP
2007      69.6   21.7    8.5
2011      56.1   19.1   24.6

Change   -13.5  -2.6   +16.1

The NDP gains in votes, and seats, came almost entirely at the expense of the Tories. The Liberals stubbornly refused to believe their own obituaries.

According to the script, this wasn't supposed to happen.

And it's not just a matter of raw vote- and seat-counts. Straits and White Bay North released itself from the Liberal clutches it fell into in the late by-election, but did so without rushing back to the Tory fold. Clyde Jackman saw his political career flash before his eyes, and the NDP was strong enough to be competitive in several of the St. John's area seats it didn't win. Apart from raw margins, another indicium of the potential winnability or convertability of a district is whether the second-place party is strong enough to win polls within the district. The NDP did so in at least four Tory-held St. John's seats Tuesday night, and enough of them that it was leading in suburban Cape St. Francis in the first hour of the count.

Whence the source of the nervous-nelliness.

In the nine elections the PCs have won since Confederation, they ran the St. John's-area board, or nearly done so, every time — until 2011. Bell Island in 1971 and 1972, and Conception Bay South in 1975 (shown in pale shades), were the only seats in the current St. John's metropolitan area ever carried by Liberals in a general election won by the PC's. Back in the 1970s, those districts were not nearly as demographically and economically integrated with St. John's as they are today, so we can only partially debit the Tories for those St. John's-area losses anyway.

In the Danny-Dunderdale era, the NDP stubbornly held on to its long-standing single St. John's beachead in the east end/downtown/Signal Hill area, with the NDP fending off the PC juggernaut in 2003, and PC star candidacies in the 2006 by-election and 2011 general election. During the D-D era, there were only ever even two local races in which the NDP topped 1000 votes — in Conception Bay East and Bell Island in 2003 and in the 2010 by-election.

This chart shows the distribution of PC seats in PC-won elections, along with non-PC seats won in the modern St. John's metropolitan area boundaries. Metro seats are to the left of the thick grey bar (the overpass?), while rural and small-town PC seats are shown to the right.

Even in opposition, the Tories have always had a battle-hardened political redoubt in the capital city. During the Smallwood years, before electoral map-drawing process was semi-professionalized, the PC party always at least split the difference with Smallwood's Liberals. Other than in 1949, the PC caucus was always weighted towards St. John's. (In 1949 the Tories also carried several of their traditional rural Avalon chateaux-forts.) In 1959, the St. John's vote was further split by the schismatic United Newfoundland faction (in green). As with the previous chart, the problem case of Bell Island, more integrated with St. John's now than it was then, is shown in a paler shade. Once again, the grey bar represents the metaphorical overpass:
The elections of 1989 and 1993 show just how unusual, historically-speaking, was the electoral coalition built by the Clyde Wells Liberals. They were very successful in the city and suburbs, while the Tories showed a remarkable resilience in rural areas even during Liberal-won elections. The two Tobin-era elections showed the Tories gaining ground in the city, while reverting to the historical pattern of having a caucus comprised half or more of urban and suburban MHAs, even though the electoral map favours non-metro areas almost three to one.

St. John's, in short, has always been the Progressive Conservative citadel. It is the core to which they retreat in bad elections, and the base from which they rebuild to have good ones.

So, for them, seeing the NDP surge to four seats in the city, take out a cabinet minister and two other incumbents, and fend of what ended up being a weak challenge by a "star" candidate, was bad enough.

Seeing the NDP surge to over 1000 votes in every metro district but one — Mount Pearl North, where Kurtis Coombs, of all candidates, still got 994 — is another.

Seeing the NDP come to within realistic striking distance in three more districts — Conception Bay East–Bell Island, Mount Pearl South, and St. John's West — now you're talking nervous tics.

Then to have the Dippers winning polls in suburban Cape St. Francis and elsewhere across Town?

Couple that with the surprising (to some people) Liberal resilience in rural areas, especially the further you get from St. John's, where the Liberal vote actually increased in eighteen districts, and you may just be gazing into something of a crystal ball that foretells the scenario by which the PC party will, eventually, fall from grace with voters.

A rural flank under pressure from the other "traditional" party. An urban core where some seats are won, and others "spoiled" by vote-splits from the NDP.

Sound vaguely familiar?

With the colours red and blue swapping positions, this is exactly the pincer move that has been pursued over the four federal elections of 2004, 2006, 2008, and 2011, by the federal Conservatives.

The rural party failed to die on cue, and actually ended up making gains. The governing party's urban fortress is under siege by an NDP that snuck in through the aqueducts.

A PC defeat wasn't in the cards in 2011.

But for anyone with a little imagination, regardless of political stripe, that eventual defeat isn't nearly as hard to imagine this week as it was seven days ago.

Politician, heal thyself

2011-10-15T18:34:00.004-03:00

Premier Kathy Dunderdale — just like her predecessor — doesn't think much of the body that she volunteered to be elected to:

"I don't find it a place for a very healthy, open, constructive debate to start with," she told the CBC in a post-election interview.

"Most of my issues are around the quality of debate and the research and the fact that you can pretty well get up in the House of Assembly and say whatever it is you like. You don't have to be concerned with truth."

For the record:

Dunderdale was first elected as MHA in 2003, along with 33 other Progressive Conservatives; a 34-member government caucus facing a combined opposition of just 14.

She was re-elected in 2007 as a member of a landslide 44-member PC caucus, facing a combined opposition of just four.

Including those members who were elected in intervening by-elections, Kathy Dunderdale's entire eight-year experience as a Parliamentarian has been as one of 55 Progressive Conservatives against a rolling total of 17 Liberals and New Democrats. (That figure doesn't include this year's crop of first-time MHAs; seven PCs, four Dippers, and three Liberals.)

Thirty of those 55 Progressive Conservatives, an absolute majority of the new House, were incumbents who were re-elected on Tuesday night.

That is to say: Kathy Dunderdale, in her entire elected political career, has never known anything other than a House of Assembly that is overwhelmingly dominated by fellow Progressive Conservatives.

So when she says that the House isn't "a place for a very healthy, open, constructive debate" — just whose fault is that, anyway?

And why hasn't she, or her party, having sucked almost all of the political oxygen out of the province, ever once taken steps to change that?

Oh yeah — right.

On the importance of debate (II)

2011-10-15T11:30:00.000-03:00

From the proceedings of the Bow-Wow Parliament on May 15, 2001, here's former PC leader Ed Byrne asking sharply-pointed questions about the Voisey's Bay project:

MR. E. BYRNE: Mr. Speaker, in view of the fact that this government, and in particular the Premier, has articulated a position on the export of ore prior to a finished processing of that product that explicitly defies the mandate the government received in 1999, I would like to ask the Deputy Premier: Will government make a commitment that before a deal is signed, final and binding that puts in place a deal that is final, that the people have to live with forever and a day, that you will bring it to this Legislature for debate and that you will bring it before the people of the Province so they can see and comment on what is in that deal?

MR. TULK: Yes, Mr. Speaker.

MR. E. BYRNE: Mr. Speaker, I am pleased to hear the Deputy Premier’s answer because Hansard will show that the Premier’s answer - I will get to the question if you will give me a moment, I say to the Government House Leader - to me on this question is different.

I want to ask this question. It is now government policy, supported by your Premier, that if you negotiate a deal, before you sign it you will bring it before the Legislature for debate and you will bring it before the public so they may have their opportunity to debate it as well. Is that what you are saying, Deputy Premier?

MR. TULK: Let me say to the hon. gentleman that this government will not hide anything that it signs or does, and that it will be debated fully in this Legislature.

SOME HON. MEMBERS: Oh, oh!

MR. TULK: What’s the problem? Are you trying to suggest to us that we should hide something? Are you afraid there is going to be a deal there? What’s the problem?

MR. E. BYRNE: Government members asked: What are we afraid of? The government members say it will be out in the open. I can only say, are they aware - I will ask this question, you must be aware, or are you aware that the Premier of the Province, in this Legislature, said no to the question that I asked, that he would not make that commitment.

MR. SPEAKER: Order, please!

MR. E. BYRNE: I am asking again, Mr. Speaker: Before this deal is final and binding upon the people of the Province, that it will be debated fully in this Legislature and that government will provide an opportunity to have it fully debated outside this Legislature in public. Is that the commitment that government is making?

MR. SPEAKER: Order, please!

MR. TULK: My answer to that repetitive question is the same as it was before.

Democracy Watch watch (III)

2011-10-14T23:38:00.004-03:00

It was so delightful to see the ever-vigilant Duff Conacher of Democracy Watch weigh in on the issue of voter turnout and the extended Christmas break that the newly re-elected PC government have given themselves. As VOCM reported Thursday:

Democracy Watch Weighs in on Election
Thursday , October 13 2011

Democracy Watch says there are a number of ways to improve voter turnout and make the electorate more engaged in the process. Spokesman Duff Conacher was responding to low voter turnout in this week's provincial election. Just under 58 percent of the province's eligible voters cast their ballots this time around, the lowest turnout in recent memory. Conacher says there have poor voter turnouts in other provinces and in recent federal elections as well. He says the electorate are fed up with politicians and want to see measures put in place to ensure honesty and real change. He says sometimes all it takes is a clear outline of party policy.

Meanwhile, Premier Kathy Dunderdale has already announced that the Legislature will not open for the fall session. Conacher calls that decision an "undemocratic move".

For the record, here are some of the other democracy-related issues that the very busy Democracy Watchers failed to notice during the past eight years:

2003 (and onwards): The ever lazier and lazier provincial legislature.

2005 (and onwards): The vitriolic and demagogic attacks on private citizens and public figures alike.

2006: The major ethical problem posed by a prominent and independently-wealthy politician's impulse towards ostentatious charity.

2006: The appointment of an all-partisan Electoral Boundaries Commission, instead of a non-partisan one.

2006: The attack on a sitting judge who dared to not side with the government in a legal matter.

2007: The brazen reversion to 1950s-style Duplessis-Smallwood government by carrot and stick.

2007: The appointment of a former President of the governing party as Chief Electoral Officer.

2007: The amendment of the Elections Act to allow voters to vote in elections that haven't actually been called yet.

2007 (and onwards): The mysterious non-appearance of the promised whistleblower protection legislation.

2008: The Great Patriotic War of Freedom From Information, fought on many different fronts.

2008: The partisan cook-up involving the Speaker of the House of Assembly, to throttle caucus funding for the official opposition.

2008: The attack on a judge in an official inquiry who had the temerity to, you know, inquire.

2008: The government announcing that it will just plain ignore a court decision which didn't go the way it wanted.

2009: The failure of the Chief Electoral Officer to show the least bit of curiosity about the conduct of the 2001 St. Barbe by-election, after new facts came to light.

2010: Ethnic demagogery.

2010: Yet another attack on a quasi-judicial body, this one conveniently out of province.

2010: The clumsy attempts to justify the Duplessis-Smallwood carrot-and-stick approach to government.

2011 (and earlier): The participation of the provincial police force's union in fundraising for the governing party.

2011 (and earlier): The pattern of political finance contributions by municipal governments and other public entities.

Sourest. Grapes. Ever.

2011-10-14T15:01:00.003-03:00

A truly extraordinary story today from VOCM:

Sour Grapes?
Friday , October 14 2011

Someone might want to remind the two PC MHAs on the Burin Peninsula that they won. People are starting to notice the sour grapes being expressed by some successful candidates in the recent provincial election. Clyde Jackman, who squeaked past New Democratic Party candidate Julie Mitchell, is disappointed that Fish, Food and Allied Workers union local president Allan Moulton and Marystown Mayor Sam Synard campaigned against him. Now, Education Minister Darin King, who ran and won in the nearby district of Grand Bank, is complaining about Liberal MP Judy Foote. Quoted in the Southern Gazette, King expressed his disgruntlement with Foote for supporting the Liberal candidate Carol Anne Haley, who worked as her constituency assistant. King is quoted as saying that he "was not going to be as nice as he used to be" toward Foote.

On VOCM Backtalk with Paddy Daly Thursday, caller Ben from Grand Bank expressed his surprise at the reaction. He said the only people expressing bitterness are the winners. He called the matter "childish".

On VOCM Niteline with Bill Rowe, Judy Foote said King used bullying language in criticizing her, even though he won the seat. She said he had to campaign against two politicians, and he said that she picked a "fight" and he would see it through.

Liberal MP Gerry Byrne, who campaigned during the provincial election, says it's a case of the pot calling the kettle black. He says less than six months ago, nine provincial cabinet ministers campaigned against him.

Meanwhile, Marystown Mayor Sam Synard told VOCM Niteline with Bill Rowe that Jackman has indicated he doesn't want to work with him or Allan Moulton. Synard says the only campaigning he did with NDP candidate Julie Mitchell, with whom he worked on council, was in his home town of Parker's Cove, where he introduced her to his elderly aunt and an uncle. Synard said he was very surprised by Jackman's comments about Allan Moulton.
A former Progressive Conservative cabinet minister, Paul Oram, has weighed in on the provincial election and wasted no time in castigating Synard for allegedly campaigning against Jackman. Oram said bitterness and resentment, in this case, goes both ways.

If by any chance you were inclined to tell Clyde Jackman, Paul Oram, or Dr. Darin Luther King to "stay classy", just remember — you can't stay classy if you ain't classy in the first place.

On the importance of debate (I)

2011-10-14T02:13:00.004-03:00

A blast from the ever-more-distant past.

What ever became of that nice Mr. Ottenheimer, anyway?

* * *

Any Lower Churchill deal must be publicly debated prior to signing

ST. JOHN'S, February 18, 2000 — Opposition Mines and Energy critic John Ottenheimer says if the province is close to a deal with Québec on developing the Lower Churchill River's hydro potential, then it's time many questions were addressed.

Ottenheimer said it is of the utmost importance the public see what's in any agreement with Québec before the deal is signed. "Let's not repeat the Upper Churchill fiasco where our people were left in the dark only to discover the agreement was to the detriment of this province," he said. "Newfoundlanders and Labradorians have been promised updates since the premiers of this province and Québec announced a framework for negotiations to develop the Lower Churchill in March 1998."

"It's almost two years later and we're still hearing a memorandum of understanding to proceed with the Lower Churchill development is close, possibly within weeks. It's time the premier stopped the charade and made some concrete statements and answered the many unanswered questions that rest in the minds of people in this province."

Ottenheimer said before any deal is signed, the province's people need to know about: the status of river diversion; development at Gull Island; potential development of Muskrat Falls; and if the development of a transmission line between Labrador and the Island portion of the province is a part of the deal.

"The province's chief negotiator and the premier have made it clear that the transmission line is an important component - an essential condition - in signing a memorandum of understanding with Québec to develop the Lower Churchill," Ottenheimer said. "The premier appears, however, to be softening on the transmission line commitment by trying to switch the public's attention over to a pipeline dream, specifically the construction of a natural gas pipeline to our province from offshore oil fields."

Ottenheimer said if the province has a moral conscience and is sincere about not repeating the Upper Churchill contract, then it will take any potential deal with Québec before the House of Assembly for debate to ensure full transparency. "It would also be wise for the province to hold public hearings and update the people on any deal before it's signed," he said.

- 30 -

For more information:
John Ottenheimer, MHA St. John's East
(709) 729-XXXX

Torngat turnout

2011-10-13T15:36:00.003-03:00

With a nod to Nain Bay for highlighing this interesting fact, the district of Torngat Mountains had its largest-ever absolute vote turnout on Tuesday. In fact, it has set new high-water marks for total vote in each of the past three elections:

         Total      % turnout
1979       848      ?
1982      1139      ?
1985      1151      81.7%
1989      1327      90.4%
1993      1218      83.0%
1996      1134      84.6%
1999      1223      80.2%
2003      1368      67.6%
2007      1480      71.2%
2011      1516      71.2%* (unofficial)

While highest in absolute numbers, it wasn't the highest in relative turnout as expressed as a share of eligible electors. Still, Torngat Mountains has a long history of consistently high turnout. In eight provincial elections since 1985 inclusive, Torngat Mountains has had higher-than-provincial-average turnout in all but two of them, and was only off by 0.6% in 1993. Remarkably, in four of the past five elections, turnout in Torngat has been 10% or more above the provincial average.

The provincial electoral history of this district, which consists of six isolated, mostly Inuit and Innu communities along the North Coast of Labrador, defies the stereotype (and, sadly, too often the reality) of low participation in the electoral process by Aboriginal people.

Not only is turnout in Torngat quite healthy, so is participation by Aboriginal people as candidates. Since 1993, Torngat Mountains has been consistently represented by a native-born Aboriginal person (William Andersen III, Wally Andersen, Patty Pottle, now Randy Edmunds.) This was the first election in which all major party candidates were Labrador Inuit. There has been at least one Innu candidate in the district, Simeon Tshakapesh in 1999. Inuit candidates also presented themselves under the Labrador Party banner in 2003 and 2007.

If anyone has the total vote-list figures for 1979 (when the district was first created) and 1982, which would allow for the completion of this table, pass'em on.

These things take time

2011-10-13T07:12:00.000-03:00

The Premier went before the mics on Wednesday and attempted to justify the abolition of the fall semester of the legislature that she and the other 36 members of her caucus were just elected to:

You can't go into the House without legislation. There's a purpose to the House. And the purpose of the House is to enact legislation. And that takes time to prepare. So by the time we get back, it's gonna be — before we get a cabinet sworn in we're gonna be talking at least two weeks or more. And then, time you prepare legislation, get it all written up, get it through its various processes, cause they are stringent, you know, we're talking mid-December.

Indeed.

Exhibit A: the whistleblower protection bill, promised by her party for the first session of the last legislature, in 2008, still missing in non-existent consultations, non-existent study, and non-existent drafting.

On incumbency

2011-10-13T00:05:00.002-03:00

This pretty chart shows the average age of partisan Canadian second-order governments in power since 1900. Click to enlarge:

The source data is the age of all partisan provincial (and one territorial, plus pre-Confederation Newfoundland) governments, calculated by assigning an age of "1" at the end of the calendar year in which the party took office.

Some provinces which had non-overtly partisan legislatures early in their history, as well as the two "consensus" territories, are excluded, as is the federal Parliament.

Transitions from one party leader to another do not impact the calculation of age. For example, the PQ government in Quebec keeps "aging" from Parizeau through Bouchard to Landry.

Several notable historical trends are obviously visible. By the mid-1930s, the Great Depression had cleaned the clocks of incumbents right across the country. (Along with other episods of government-replacement, the bar for 1936 is shown in dark green). Their replacements benefitted from lingering resentment of governments that got blamed for tough times, then the War years and post-War boom, to set records in many provinces for long-lived administrations. This was the era of Smallwood, Duplessis, Angus L., Ernest Manning, Tommy Douglas, Wacky Bennett, and the birth of Ontario's Big Blue Machine.

There was a bit of a "correction" in the late 1950s, bringing the average age of incumbent governments back to the long-term historical average of just under 10 years, followed by another period of stable incumbencies through the 1960s. However, from about 1968 to 1972, voters in every province except PEI and Ontario turfed incumbent parties, and nearly did so at the federal level in the minority election of 1972. This episode has been called by some wag, "the Great Housecleaning." There then followed another period of incumbency advantage, ending with a bunch of turnovers in the mid-1980s, most notably in Ontario and Quebec. This also coincided with the era of the 1984 Mulroney federal PC landslide.

Through the rest of the 1980s, incumbents continued to lose advantage, including the defeat of the ex-Peckford and Hatfield PCs in Atlantic Canada. After the huge federal turnover election of 1993, incumbency advantage began to grow again, and has trended mostly upwards ever since.

At the far right of the chart, the columns in yellow show what the incumbency situation would putatively be out to the end of 2014, assuming that:

Brad Wall's Saskatchewan Party wins the current election campaign;

nothing unusual happens to any of the incumbent governments who have won the other provincial and territorial elections so far this fall — especially the minority-of-uncertain-stability in Ontario; and

other incumbent parties who face elections in the next four years are also successful in their bids.

If some, or even most, of those conditions are met, the average age of incumbent provincial and territorial governments in Canada will be approaching record highs.

Hands up, everyone who thinks that trend will continue in a linear progression.

Both hands up, everyone who thinks that trend will continue if 2012, if not 2011 already, brings the second of a double-dip.

If only the target would stop moving

2011-10-12T16:12:00.004-03:00

In an interview with CBC Newsworld earlier today, Premier Dunderdale speaks again of her plans for the proposed Muskrat Falls project "as we move towards sanction, hopefully in the spring."

That would be spring, 2012, presumably — though one might hesitate to make that assumption.

After all, in the utterly immutable, never-to-be-changed, carved-in-stone 2007 energy plan, it is writ, at page 32:

To ensure this project has every opportunity to move forward, the Provincial Government is leading its development through the Energy Corporation. The Energy Corporation has established a comprehensive and clearly-defined project execution plan and will continue to advance the project on multiple fronts, including engineering and the environmental assessment process, analysis of market access options and market destinations, and a financing strategy. The project is targeting sanction in 2009, with in-service of Gull Island in 2015.

The Word of Our Dan. (Glory be.)

You lose, you gain

2011-10-12T00:51:00.004-03:00

This map shows the change in turnout in 47 districts between the general elections of 2007 and 2011. (Bonavista South can't be compared, since it was filled by acclamation in 2007.)

This is not the change in turnout as calculated V/E where V is the number of votes cast and E is the number of electors. As noted before, the value for E is questionable.

Instead, turnout change is calculated here as V(07)/V(11), the change in the total number of people who voted in 2011 as compared to 2007, rendered as a percentage (plus or minus). While this allows for the Permanent Voters' List Is A Work Of Fiction problem, it introduces a different problem of its own, in that some of the change in turnout measured this way is accountable due to simple demographics: some districts have gained population in the past four years, others have lost.

Still, it's striking that the biggest gains in raw turnout were seen in the St. John's area districts where the NDP saw pickups or large gains in support, while the worst declines were in the two larger centres in Labrador.

Two other districts with large increases in turnout need to be starred, as the Liberal candidacy problem in 2007 seems to have depressed the baseline in Grand Falls-Windsor–Buchans and Placentia—St. Mary's.

Somewhat counter-intuitively, voter turnout declined in the rural seats which changed hands. At least at the federal level, turnover is often associated with higher turnout. (But see caveat above regarding demographic changes.)

Horseshoes

2011-10-11T23:06:00.004-03:00

This map shows a tale of two provinces.

The dark colours show which opposition won each of the now opposition-held districts. The pale colours indicate which of the opposition parties came second to a PC incumbent or newly-elected MHA:
The two contrasting patterns — NDP dominating St. John's, the Avalon, and eastern Newfoundland, with pockets of support elsewhere in regional county towns; the Liberals strongest in western Newfoundland and fisheries-oriented coastal Labrador and Newfoundland districts — help explain why the pollsters and spreadsheeters didn't pick up on what was trending anecdotally.

It also suggests how they missed the second and third headlines of the evening, namely, the rot that has set into the PC citadel of St. John's, and the failure of the Liberal party to die on cue.

Next time, guys: regional oversamples, OK?

NL Votes 2011 — and 2015

2011-10-11T22:09:00.003-03:00

Here are the provision results of tonight's Newfoundland and Labrador election, cleverly mapped by party which carried each district, and further colour-coded by the strength of the candidate's victory. The results are divided into vote shares of less than 40%, 40-50%, 50-60%, and greater than 60%. The number of seats carried by each vote share is also indicated in the legend.

The paler colours give some hint as to where the back-roomers will be thinking about target-hold and target-pickup strategies for October 2015.

The base map, brazenly borrowed from Wikipedia, omits Lake Melville for some reason, but is otherwise a nice one to work with.

No excuses

2011-10-11T11:27:00.003-03:00

A letter from Colonial Secretary Glenelg, to Newfoundland Governor Prescott, in response to an 1835 petition from residents and merchants in Ivucktoke and Sandwich Bays, Labrador. Originally published as one of the exhibits in the Labrador Boundary case joint appendix of exhibits, it has been digitized by MUN library.

Despite the optimistic note, it would in fact be 111 years before the unelected Commission of Government first granted Labradorians the right to vote and be represented, in the 1946 National Convention election. Labrador did not vote in its first legislative election until after Confederation in 1949.

So you — go vote.

No. 550.

LORD GLENELG TO GOVERNOR PRESCOTT.

Duplicate
No. 81. Downing Street,

29th June, 1836.

SIR,
I have to acknowledge the receipt of your despatch of the 24th May No. 31, enclosing two Petitions addressed to you by persons settled on the Coast of Labrador, deprecating the passing of a Bill which had been introduced into the House of Assembly of Newfoundland for regulating the Salmon Fishery of the Colony. As that Bill was not eventually presented to you for your assent, it is unnecessary for me to allude further to it, but I proceed to notice the other topic in these Petitions, to which you have invited my particular attention.

The Petitioners protest against the right of the Legislature of Newfoundland, in which they are not represented, to make Laws binding on them, and record their belief that they are still under the authority of the King in Council expressing at the same time their wish to remain so. In this view of their situation the Petitioners are evidently in error. By the Statutes 49, Geo. III., C. 27 & 6 Geo. IV., C. 59, as well as by the Royal Commissions to Sir Thomas Cochrane and to yourself, the Coast of Labrador to the Eastward of a line drawn due North & South from the Harbor of Ance Sablon to the 52° North Latitude is annexed to the Colony of Newfoundland. The authority therefore of the Legislature of Newfoundland to pass Laws for the Government of the Settlers at Labrador cannot be disputed; but at the same time the claim of those settlers to be represented in the Colonial Legislature demands, & ought to receive a deliberate consideration.

You will accordingly inform the Petitioners, while pointing out to them the error into which they have fallen, that you will be ready to recommend to the favourable notice of the Council and Assembly of Newfoundland any Petition which they may address to those Bodies, putting forward their Claim to be represented in the Colonial Legislature.

I have the honour to be, Sir,
Your most obedient, humble servant,

GLENELG.

Captain Prescott

Virtual Over-air Campaign Megaphone

2011-10-11T00:12:00.003-03:00

Headline on this VOCM story now:

Last Day of the Election Campaign

Headline when it was first published on Monday morning:

Last Day of Premier's Campaign

Dunderdinner!

2011-10-10T18:16:00.000-03:00

Imitation is the sincerest form of hilarity. Here are the splash pages on the websites for the Dunderdale (the party seems to have dropped the "2011" portion of the branding after making their candidates deploy it):

and for local Dunderdale~~2011~~ candidate Shawn Skinner in St. John's Centre:

Bonus imitation: Skinner has a campaign theme song, too!

It pays to advertise

2011-10-10T16:16:00.003-03:00

An ad from Torngat Mountains PC candidate Patty Pottle which appears on p. A3 of the latest edition of The Labradorian:

The latest edition of the paper is notionally dated Tuesday, October 11th. It is in distribution today.

Section 226.1 of the Elections Act provides as follows:

226.1 (1) A registered party or candidate, and a person, corporation or trade union acting with its or his or her knowledge and consent shall not, after the issue of a writ for an election and before the day immediately following the polling day, except during the period of 21 days immediately preceding the day before polling day,
(a) advertise on the facilities of a broadcasting undertaking; or

(b) procure for publication, publish or consent to the publication of, except during that period, an advertisement in a newspaper, magazine or other periodical publication,
for the purpose of promoting or opposing a political party or the election of a candidate.

(2) Subsection (1) does not apply
(a) to advertising of public meetings in districts;

(b) to advertising through the use of outdoor advertising facilities;

(c) to announcing political parties' headquarters locations;

(d) to announcing services for electors by political parties respecting enumeration and revision of lists of electors; or

(e) to another matter respecting administrative functions of political parties,
if the advertisements, announcements and other matters are done in accordance with the guidelines of the Chief Electoral Officer.

(3) A person who broadcasts or publishes an advertisement contrary to this section is guilty of an offence.

Comparative government (II)

2011-10-09T16:57:00.003-03:00

A few days ago, this corner posed a question, asking you to identify the provincial governments in this chart, which shows the growth rate of the provincial public sector in various provinces, under various party stripes, over the past thirty years:

Here's the answer key:

Left to right, they are NL PCs (2003-present), NS NDP (2009-present), ON NDP (1990-1995), MB NDP (1981-1988), MB NDP (1999-present), BC NDP (1991-2001), NB PC (1999-2006), QC PQ (1994-2003), ON PC (1995-2003), ON Lib (2003-present) and AB PC (1992-present).

The growth rate of the provincial public service in Newfoundland and Labrador between 2007 and 2011 (13.3%) is unmatched over an identical time period by any of the governments in this sample except for the late years of the Landry PQ government in Quebec (peaking at 16%), the Stelmach PC government in Alberta (14.3%) , and late in the first term of the Gary Doer NDP government in Manitoba (14%).

More specifically — hi, Mark Whiffen, how you doin'? — the Progressive "Conservatives" under Danny Williams, during his second term, inflated the public sector at a rate comparable to, or faster than, every single NDP government that has been in office in any province since Statistics Canada started keeping track.

The only exception is Nova Scotia, where the Dippers haven't been in office long enough to make an apples:apples comparison, but where so far, they have also had a better record of getting provincial expenditures under control.

So, can anyone figure out why it is that anyone who is a fiscal conservative would ever support the Conservative-in-name-only Dunderdale2011s?

John Noseworthy? Mark Whiffen?

Anyone?

Numbers

2011-10-08T22:57:00.004-03:00

An excerpt from Saturday's letter to the Telegram by Richard Cashin, Ed Hearn, and Dennis Browne, one of a flurry of lengthy Muskrat Falls-related letters which, sadly, do not make it to the paper's public web site:

All this comes at a time in which our population growth is declining and aging. The burden of Muskrat Falls will be heavy on our taxpayers as well as our ratepayers. Here are some population figures.
     1989.......................576,000
     1992.......................580,000
     2000.......................527,000
     2004.......................517,000
     2015.......................520,000
     2019.......................514,000
     2025.......................513,000

It's not entirely clear where ~~Cashin~~ the authors got those "figures", but they are already more optimistic than the population projections which Nalcor submitted to the Public Utilities Board, which are.

     2011.......................513,000
     2015.......................515,000
     2019.......................510,000
     2025.......................507,000

As this corner has previously noted even these figures are already over-optimistic and out of date: the latest Statistics Canada estimate pegs the population of the entire province at under 511,000. The truly relevant population — that of the Island Interconnected service area — is even smaller, excluding, as it does, 25- to 30,000 in Labrador, plus several thousand more living in isolated diesel communities in Newfoundland.

[Edited to credit all the authors of the letter.]

Uncommon look and feel

2011-10-07T21:25:00.004-03:00

A most interesting pattern emerges in canvassing the local community papers (and the Western Star) for PC candidates' campaign advertising.

First off, there are about 10 PC candidates who seem to have eschewed newspaper advertising altogether, unless they have ads planted in editions that have just gone to press for distribution on Sunday or Monday.

Second, most of them use two graphical elements from the provincial party campaign's bag of goodies, the "NewEnergy" logo, and the bizarre attempt to rebrand the party as "DUNDERDALE2011".

Chosen entirely at random, here's a fairly typical example from Wally Young:

Yours truly has found eighteen PC candidates who have placed ads in the last week which dutifully include the "DUNDERDALE2011" branding.

But on the other hand... then there's these guys.

Dr Darin King to you:

Tracey Perry (who does use "NewEnergy"):

Felix Collins (ditto):

Kevin Pollard and friends:

And our favourite Kevin... who not only eschews the new DUNDERDALE2011 brand, but the old "PC Party" brand as well:

So... sup with that?

(Also, where have all the moustaches gone?)

Stop asking questions

2011-10-07T20:30:00.003-03:00

A bit of a strange, passively-voiced conclusion to a CBC election commentary by Doug Letto:

How many of us have asked these questions:

- What would happen if oil production was interrupted because of technical problems or an environmental catastrophe?

- What if oil prices plummeted?

- What "other revenue sources" could we reasonably and quickly marshal to take the place of offshore royalties?

There has not been much talk of any of those scenarios in this election. Only a determination to exercise prudence and care in spending the income generated by oil. Perhaps, in the midst of plenty, this is a debate politicians can't stomach right now.

But it’s a talk that needs to happen once the campaign buses have been parked and the placards put away.

It's actually a talk that needed to have happened starting in 2006.

That was just after Danny Williams cashed the "we got it!" cheque, resulting from a campaign in which no one — literally, no one — in the local press called Williams out on the inherent contradiction in supposedly wanting to be a "have province" and collect equalization at the same time.

And that was the precise moment when, having lost precious CRA popularity points during the 2004-2005 battles with the public-sector employees, Williams resolved to fix the poll problem, permanently, by hiring more of them, and paying them more money.

The monstrous ramp-up in public spending was not invisible. It was plain as day for anyone who bothered to look.

A few of us looked. None of us who did own transmitter towers, or purchase ink by the hectolitre.

Perhaps the politicians can't stomach this talk during a fart-and-you-miss-it election campaign. They can't stomach it outside the writ period, either.

But the past eight years of passivity and silence, on big issues and little ones, from what used to be an active political press gallery, is nothing short of astounding.

Something doesn't add up. Literally.

2011-10-06T12:25:00.000-03:00

In the 2006 federal election, there were collectively 17,727 federal electors on the federal list in the city of Corner Brook.

In 2008, that number slipped to 17,283.

In 2011, it decline further, to 16,607 — a 6% drop in five years.

In the 2007 provincial election, the combined voter population of Humber East and West districts — which largely, but not entirely, coincide with the City of Corner Brook — was 14,788.

In the 2011 provincial election, Elections NL puts the voter population of the two districts at 17,204. That's an increase of 16% in four years.

Maybe there's been a truly massive influx of population to the suburbs like Massey Drive, Steady Brook, and Humber Village. In that case, you'd expect Humber East, where those smaller municipalities are located, to have risen in provincial voter population more than Humber West.

But, no, Humber West's provincial voter population "rose" at a higher rate than Humber East between the 2007 and 2011 general elections. And it did so, even though the 2011 general election voters list lost almost 500 voters from the 2011 Humber West by-election voters list just a few months ago.

The only other possible mathematical explanation is a truly massive loss of population in the smll part of the City of Corner Brook that lies in Bay of Islands district, or a truly massive increase in population in the even smaller portion of Humber West that lies outside of Corner Brook.

What the heck is going on with the voters list in Corner Brook?

Related, from February 2011:
The phantom (elector) menace?
Mismatch

Unprofitable at any price?

2011-10-06T11:31:00.003-03:00

A fascinating little report Tuesday on Radio-Canada's eastern Quebec regional news site:

La Romaine n'est pas rentable, maintient Jean-Thomas Bernard

...

Hydro-Québec avance que le coût de l'électricité lié au projet se situe autour de 6,4 ¢ le kilowattheure. M. Bernard se demande comment Hydro-Québec peut en arriver à ce chiffre.

« Lors de la première annonce sur le projet, Hydro-Québec estimait un coût de l'ordre de 10 ¢ le kWh. Et là, elle arrive avec ce nouveau chiffre de 6,4. Pendant ce temps, le seul changement réel, ça a été la baisse du taux d'intérêt », affirme-t-il.

Selon son calcul, la baisse des taux sur les emprunts d'Hydro-Québec permet une réduction d'un demi-cent sur le coût du kWh, pas davantage.

D'après lui, le coût réel du projet avoisinerait davantage les 8,6 ¢ du kWh.

« Même avec un coût de 6,4 ¢ le kWh, c'est supérieur au prix [de vente] de 5,8 ¢ qu'on a convenu avec le Vermont pour 500 mégawatts au cours de la dernière année. L'argument principal de la Société est que le prix de l'électricité va augmenter. Mais on ne sait pas quel sera le prix dans 20-25 ans. Tout au plus, on sait que pour 5-10 prochaines années, le prix de l'électricité sera dominé par le prix du gaz et que ce prix a fléchi énormément et n'est pas sur le point de se redresser », avance-t-il.

Rough translation:

La Romaine is not profitable, maintains Jean-Thomas Bernard

...

Hydro-Québec argues that the cost of electricity associated with the project is around 6.4 cents per kilowatt hour. Bernard wonders how Hydro-Québec arrives at this figure.

"When the project was first announce, Hydro-Québec estimated a cost of about 10 cents per kWh. And here they come with this new figure of 6.4. Meanwhile, the only real change, it was lower interest rates," he said.

According to his calculation, the lower rates on loans from Hydro-Québec allows a reduction of half a percent on the cost per kWh, and no more.

According to him, the real cost of the project would approach around 8.6 cents per kWh.

"Even with a cost of 6.4 cents per kWh, it's higher than the [sale] price of 5.8 cents they reached with the Vermont for 500 megawatts over the past year. The company's main argument is that the price of electricity will increase. But we do not know what the price will be in 20-25 years. At most, we know that for 5-10 years, the price of electricity will be dominated by gas prices and the price dropped a lot and is not about to pick up," he said.

Some food for thought for anyone thinking of becoming a blue-eyed sheikh by selling "robust" Muskrat Falls power to New England.

Another despatch from the memory hole

2011-10-06T00:01:00.000-03:00

Four years ago today, Progressive Conservative Party leader Danny Williams promised to introduce whistleblower legislation in the first post-election session of the House of Assembly.

Danny Williams lied.

But what does it mean?

2011-10-05T23:59:00.005-03:00

According to statistics published Wednesday by Elections Newfoundland and Labrador, 4% of the voters list, almost on the nose, voted in advance polls. (This does not include other early voters who voted through special ballots or in the local returning office.)

Twenty districts had advance-voting rates higher than 4%. Most of these were in the greater St. John's area:

Grand Falls-Windsor–Buchans      8.00%
Signal Hill–Quidi Vidi           7.67%
Cartwright–L’Anse au Clair       6.52%
St. John’s West                  6.46%
St. John’s East                  6.39%
Carbonear–Harbour Grace          5.61%
St. John’s South                 5.50%
St. John’s Centre                5.44%
Port de Grave                    5.30%
Virginia Waters                  4.94%
Mount Pearl South                4.88%
St. John’s North                 4.67%
Humber Valley                    4.61%
Mount Pearl North                4.60%
Conception Bay East–Bell Island  4.58%
Humber East                      4.37%
Gander                           4.32%
Conception Bay South             4.32%
Cape St. Francis                 4.30%
Burin–Placentia West             4.20%

Bringing up the rear were Torngat Mountains (1.36%), Bay of Islands (1.9%), Burgeo–La Poile (1.91%), Trinity–Bay de Verde (2.08%), St. Barbe (2.14%) and Fortune Bay—Cape La Hune (2.15%). The remote coastal districts in northern Labrador and the south coast of Newfoundland were the target of Elections Newfoundland and Labrador special ballot efforts, which may have diverted early voters from the "Advance" line to the "Special Ballots" one.

In the current election, six of the ten highest advance-vote districts were in metro St. John's. In 2007, only three were. The top ten, interestingly enough, were almost all seats heavily targetted by Danny Williams-Government for pickup or hold, starting with Signal Hill–Quidi Vidi (7.7%), then on through Carbonear–Harbour Grace, Grand Falls–Windsor–Buchans, Port de Grave, Exploits (Liberal in 2003, picked up by the PCs in a by-election), Lake Melville (a narrow margin in 2003), Humber Valley (a Liberal by-election pickup in 2007), St. John’s East, Torngat Mountains (a narrow PC pickup in 2007), and St. John’s West.

Most of the rural target seats this year, for any of the parties, and for pickup or hold, have below-average advance turnout rates: Lake Melville, Baie Verte–Springdale, Grand Falls–Windsor–Green Bay South, The Straits–White Bay North, Bonavista North, St. George’s–Stephenville East, The Isles of Notre Dame, Labrador West, Bellevue, Fortune Bay–Cape La Hune, St. Barbe, Burgeo–La Poile, Bay of Islands, Torngat Mountains.)

This may mean that the Tories and NDP are pumping GOTV resources into St. John's, and that the Tories are doing so at the expense of the formerly strenuous GOTV efforts in potential rural battleground districts in the Williams-era general and by-elections.

Alternatively, in rural areas, GOTV efforts may have focused instead on the special ballot mechanism rather than advance voting.

Or... it may all mean nothing at all. We shall see soon enough.

Comparative government (I)

2011-10-05T11:12:00.001-03:00

This is a fun game you can play at home, school, or office!

Each of the sub-charts on this graph represents a provincial government of one particular partisan stripe or another. The pretty coloured blobs show the relative change in the size of the provincial public service over time, starting with the quarter in that government first came into office.

("Provincial public service" is defined here as the sum of all provincial civil servants, teachers and other school board employees, and employeees of the public health-care system, provincial public post-secondary education institutions, and provincial crown corporations. Data for all charts is from Statscan Table 183-0002.)

Since the values for each government are indexed to the conditions when they took office, each government's chart starts at 100% (the thick black line). From there, over time, some governments have cut, dropping the value to less than 100% of the initial value, while others grew the public sector, resulting in values rising above 100%. For instance, one government ended up growing the public sector by 20%, while another cut it by 15% before expanding again.

There is at least one government from each of nine provinces (though one province is not portrayed at all). There are several Progressive Conservative and NDP governments, at least one Liberal government, and one Parti Québécois government portrayed. All of the data is from January 1982 at the earliest. The most recent data is from the first quarter of 2011. There is at least one government still in power portrayed.

The colours of each chartlet do not necessarily reflect the partisan affiliation of the government whose data is shown. If the colour does so, it is entirely by coincidence. The left-to-right order does not necessarily reflect any geographical or chronological sequence, though each chartlet is internally chronological from left to right.

Just to make things really interesting, the time scale at the bottom, and the explanatory legend, have been redacted, ATIP-style. Do you dare attempt this most fiendish of statistical challenges?

Click to enlarge:

"Have" municipalities

2011-10-05T00:51:00.003-03:00

There is all kinds of Fascinating to be found in Wade Locke's report on Municipal Fiscal Sustainability, released on Tuesday by the commissioners of the report, Municipalities Newfoundland and Labrador. The full report is available on MNL's website.

By way of nibbling into the Fascinating, take this, a mathematical riff off one of Locke's supporting tables. In the original table, Locke lists a large cross-section of municipalities (though not quite all) according to the population of the municipality, and by how much the residents collectively paid in provincial income taxes in 2006 (the most recent census year.)

To this data, yours truly has added the unincorporated community of Churchill Falls, plus other localities in Labrador not included in Locke's original sample. His (and my's) source data is available at Community Accounts. The communities are then sorted in descending order by the ratio between the community's share of provincial income tax, and its share of the provincial population.

Out of 236 communities (Locke's 227 sample plus the other Labrador communities added after the fact), there were 27 where the city, town, or community contributed a larger share of provincial income tax, than would be expected if the distribution of provincial income tax was perfectly uniform across the province.

At the very top of the scale — somewhat inexplicably; possible explanations are welcome as comments — is Trinity, Trinity Bay, which contributed 0.16% of PIT with 0.04% of the provincial population. Next up are Wabush and Labrador City, both pulling about double their demographic weight in PIT.

Here's the full list of the 27 "have" municipalities or localities, showing the total dollar amount of provincial income taxes paid in 2006, their share of total PIT paid province-wide, and the ratio of share of PIT paid to share of 2006 provincial population:

COMMUNITY                             PIT paid        %     ratio
================================================================
Trinity, Trinity Bay                   $1,406,000    0.16%  4.32
Wabush                                  6,029,000    0.70   2.01
Labrador City                          24,690,000    2.85   2.00
Logy Bay‐Middle Cove‐Outer Cove       5,534,000    0.64   1.77
Churchill Falls                         1,925,000    0.22   1.68
Happy Valley‐Goose Bay                19,790,000    2.29   1.52
Long Harbour‐Mount Arlington Heights     543,070    0.06   1.51
Paradise                               32,408,000    3.75   1.50
Portugal Cove‐St. Philip's            15,988,000    1.85   1.42
Torbay                                 15,001,721    1.73   1.39
Steady Brook                            1,036,029    0.12   1.39
Massey Drive                            2,786,560    0.32   1.39
St. John's                            234,652,000   27.12   1.36
Gander                                 22,536,000    2.60   1.33
Sunnyside, Trinity Bay                  1,031,000    0.12   1.28
Trepassey                               1,638,000    0.19   1.26
Mount Pearl                            52,372,000    6.05   1.23
Pasadena                                6,490,000    0.75   1.19
Miles Cove                                273,000    0.03   1.18
Conception Bay South                   43,129,000    4.98   1.15
Flatrock                                2,341,000    0.27   1.15
Come‐By‐Chance                          759,000    0.09   1.14
Arnold's Cove                           2,016,000    0.23   1.14
Clarenville                            10,178,728    1.18   1.13
Harbour Main‐Chapel Cove‐Lakeview     2,066,000    0.24   1.11
St. Anthony                             4,577,710    0.53   1.08
Goose Cove East                           434,651    0.05   1.08

A man of few words

2011-10-04T01:23:00.001-03:00

In a dozen or so tiny newsrooms across Newfoundland and Labrador, a small gaggle of overworked and underpaid editors, reporters, and contributors hammer out community newspapers, week after week.

Their dedicated work provides a valuable public service in communities under-served by larger publications and news outlets, and provide rural regions with a valuable mirror onto themselves. The importance of their role comes into sharp focus during election campaigns, whether for federal, provincial, municipal, or Aboriginal governments.

One long-standing tradition observed by many community papers is to fire off a series of questions to all the local candidates, and give them equal opportunity to respond, in print, in order to better inform the electorate about the issues, their views, and even their personalities.

The Northern Pen, serving the Northern Peninsula and southern Labrador, has done this again with the candidates for the three local districts in the current provincial election campaign.

Herewith (please don't sue!) is the question-and-response with Cartwright—L'anse au Clair PC candidate Glen Acreman, as it appeared in Monday's edition of the paper, in its entirety.

Fair and balanced

2011-10-03T19:34:00.003-03:00

Ummm... did CBC PEI hire the Ontario Tories to program their e-night graphics?

(Some of) Alberta votes (II)

2011-10-02T02:10:00.004-03:00

Per the same colour scheme as for the first-round results, here are the second-round results of the Alberta PC leadership vote, beautifully colour-coded and mapped according to which candidate carried which district's regular poll, and whether that candidate won a majority (dark) or plurality (pale) of the vote.

~~At this hour, there are still five districts left to report, one in Calgary, the rest in rural or small-town areas. Update to follow.~~

Final second-ballot results:

The Amazing Atrophying Democracy (III)

2011-10-02T00:00:00.005-03:00

Another depressing milestone has passed in the long, slow decline of whatever passed for democracy in Newfoundland and Labrador.

With Saturday's release of the final list of candidates for the upcoming provincial election, the 2011 election has the fewest number of people running as independent or minor-party candidates since 1982. There are just three independents, and no minor parties running at all.

This chart shows the historical trend, with the number of indepedent or minor-party candidates shown in grey, with the exception of several minor parties which are highlighted by colour:

The minor party episodes include the 1956 attempt by the CFF (forerunner to the NDP) to break into provincial politics; the 1959 Newfoundland Democratic Party; the 1970s and 2000s (New) Labrador Party*; the 1975 Smallwood "Liberal Reform" schismatic party; and 1999's Newfoundland and Labrador Party.

This next chart shows the cross-jurisdictional comparison in the current (or latest) provincial and territorial* elections, and the 2011 federal election. To adjust for the differing sizes of the various elected chambers, the figures are shown as the number of candidates per available legislative seat. So, for example, in the current Newfoundland and Labrador election there is an average of less than 1/10th of a minor candidate running per district.

"Minor parties" for the purpose of this comparison excludes the Liberals and (Progressive) Conservatives, and the NDP in every province except PEI, where the NDP could not put up a full slate of candidates.

It also excludes the Quebec-specific Parti Québécois and ADQ, as well as the Saskatchewan Party and Yukon Party, which are the rebranded successors to those jurisdictions' former Progressive Conservatives. Also shown, for comparative purposes, is Québec Solidaire, the closest Quebec equivalent to an NDP, as well as the Green Party in all provinces and federally.

Current elections are marked with an asterisk. As the nomination deadline has not yet passed for Saskatchewan's current election, 2007 data is shown.

What does it say when the democratic margins are healthier in Yukon, a territory with roughly the population of Mount Pearl or Conception Bay South, than in a province? There are more independent candidates currently vying for one of the 17 seats in the Yukon legislature — including, improbably, Elvis Aaron Presley in Pelly-Nisutlin — than there are in the 48 districts in Newfoundland and Labrador.

* The New Labrador Party came before the Labrador Party; the "New" governs "Labrador", not "Party".

** The electoral systems in Nunavut and the NWT are not organized on party lines; all candidates are unaffiliated for territorial electoral purposes.

Five years later

2011-10-01T16:20:00.004-03:00

The Western Star editorialist laments:

The Harper government has since said it will guarantee the financing for the project, but there is much more the feds could have — and still can do — to get multibillion-dollar project off the ground and make it more profitable.

For starters, if Ottawa had signed on to invest in the Lower Churchill, it could have included both phases of the project that had to be trimmed down because of the cost factor.

It’s not like this province is asking for a handout.

There is money to be made from clean hydro power and Ottawa could have made some cash for the federal treasury if politicians like Prentice had pushed for that to happen.

One wonders, in an information vacuum given the online inaccessibility of the paper's archives from the relevant period, what the Western Star thought, in its humble editorial opinion, about this:

In keeping with the provincial government’s agenda of developing resources for the maximum benefit of the people and continuing on the road to self-reliance, Premier Danny Williams announced today the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador and Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro (NLH) will take the lead on the potential development of the Lower Churchill hydroelectric resource. The decision was made following the assessment of the proposals short-listed from the Expressions of Interest and Proposals (EOI process).

"Just over a year ago, we embarked on a process to identify the best approach to develop the Lower Churchill hydro resource that would ensure maximum benefits and returns to the people of Newfoundland and Labrador," said Premier Williams. "Our team has thoroughly assessed and evaluated all of the proposals that were received through our EOI process, and today we are pleased to announce that the province in partnership with Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro will lead the development of the Lower Churchill. It became clear that a Newfoundland and Labrador-led development presented the best option to realize our objectives to develop this tremendous, clean source of renewable energy."

On the day of that release, in May 2006, and possibly even in a now-expunged version of it, Chairman Dan actually used the phrase "go it alone" — a phrase which he used on numerous occasions afterwards on a go-forward basis [GIVE IT UP! - ed.]

Where has the Western Star been during all that time?

Population politics

2011-09-30T00:11:00.000-03:00

Meanwhile, in Nova Scotia, the opposition provincial Progressive Conservatives are playing the same blame game once practiced by another notionally Progressive Conservative leader and party on the other side of the Cabot Strait. Once again, it's time to Blame the Government for the Demographics:

HALIFAX, NS – Progressive Conservative leader Jamie Baillie says the high cost, job killing polices of the NDP are to blame for the alarming amount of young people leaving Nova Scotia.

The latest Statistics Canada figures show approximately 60 per cent of Nova Scotians leaving for other provinces are in their 20s. Baillie says the province is on a path to a crisis situation with an aging population and a shrinking workforce.

“We’re losing our young people to provinces that see the importance of attracting business, investment and good jobs,” said Baillie. “On the other hand, the policies of our NDP government are raising costs, killing jobs and forcing our kids to leave to find work in alarming numbers.”

While immigration essentially balanced out the overall population number, Baillie says the loss of younger Nova Scotians adds to the province’s demographic woes. Nova Scotia has the highest proportion of people aged 65 and over in Canada and the lowest proportion of people under the age of 15.

“The NDP government’s high cost policies are suppressing job creation in Nova Scotia, leaving younger people with few opportunities,” added Baillie. “The real cost of the NDP’s mismanagement is families watching their children leave to start their lives elsewhere.”

Outmigration from Nova Scotia to other provinces reached 19,151 people in 2010/11 according to Statistics Canada preliminary data. That’s the highest number since 1989/90.

Now, let's accept — solely for argument's sake — that provincial government policies are what drives interprovincial migration patterns.

It was certainly the argument used by the Danny Williams Party from 2001 to 2010, blaming the then-governing Liberals for out-migration; then, when in government, pushing the notion, to the gullible, of some supposed "Williams Effect" to account for in-migration and other positive statistical indicators.

Curiously, according to this theory, the Liberal government did not get credit when out-migration slowed and converted to net in-migration; nor was the "Williams Effect" to blame when out-migration accelerated during the mid-2000s, nor when out-migration resumed in earnest once the worst of the 2008-2009 recession was over.

But, let us accept at face value the implied argument of the Progressive Conservatives on both sides of the Cabot Strait, that government policies drive interprovincial migration.

This naturally raises the question: what were things like when the PCs were in power in Nova Scotia?

Well, then.

This chart shows the quarterly out-migration from Nova Scotia going back just over thirty years, to 1980, cleverly colour-coded according to which political party formed the provincial government of the day:

Note the strong historical pattern for out-migration to peak in the third quarter of the year. This chart smooths out that seasonality; the figure for any given quarter here is the total outmigration for the previous year. (Note that the chronological attribution of party-in-power breaks down a little during transitional election years):

And remember, out-migration is only half the picture. There is also interprovincial in-migration to consider, which from time to time results in net interprovincial migration into Nova Scotia. (Along with international migration, births, and deaths, all of these components go into the top-line population figure for any given province.) This chart shows net interprovincial migration in Nova Scotia, again colour-coded by government of the day, with periods of net in-migration in dark colours, and net-outmigration in pale colours:

So, all in all, interprovincial migration in Nova Scotia under the New Democrats is, well, on the lower end of its long-standing historical range, but still not quite as bad as it was at its worst, in 2006, when Rodney MacDonald was the province's Progressive Conservative Premier.

So: are provincial population trends a product of provincial politics?

Jamie Baillie and company may want to consider their answer to that question very carefully.

Data source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table 051-0017.

Can St. John's take the hit?

2011-09-29T01:30:00.004-03:00

Just where does the provincial government spend its money?

It's not easy to say. There is some guidance to be gained, perhaps, by analyzing the budget documents and government press releases. However, there is no single easy breakdown as to what gets spent where.

At least not publicly.

There has been at least some suggestion, however, that Dundergov has produced some attempt at quantification for internal consumption. As a government record, this will naturally be released under the Access to Information Act, promptly and without obfuscation, to anyone who applies for it.

Thus you have, for instance, the NewEnergy Party's platform claiming:

most of our infrastructure investments (in fact, 71% of Innovation, Trade and Rural Development investments) over the past eight years have been in rural areas

And NewEnergy Party representative Tom Marshall claiming before the St. John's Bored of Trade on Thursday:

One presumes Mr. Marshall is also able to quantify where provincial income tax, sales tax, mining royalties, federal transfer payments, and other sources of revenue end up being spent, given the remarkable ease with which he was able to say, with such certainty, where the oil money was distributed geographically.

With respect to at least one head of government spending, there is some indication as to where the money goes.

As of the twelve months ending in March 2011, the direct provincial civil service has increased in size by almost 22%, as compared to 2004, the Tories' first full year in office. The civil service payroll has increased by 59% during the same period.

There is no readily- and publicly-available data source that tells you where, geographically, you will find provincial civil servants. Perhaps it's also in Mr. Marshall's big book of handy statistics. However, scraping the provincial government employee directory, and sorting all listed civil servant telephone numbers by three-digit exchange, you find the following rough breakdown:

At least by this telephone-book method, two-thirds of the provincial civil service is housed in the St. John's dialling area. The next nine localities with the largest provincial civil-service presence account for most of the rest. All other communities have less than the 1% share the Deer Lake has, totalling 9.3% of all listed provgov employees. This is the civil service whose payroll is now $200-million a year more than it was in 2004.

(By way of contrast, the often-maligned "National Capital Region", for federal employment statistical purposes, has about 32% of the federal civil service as of September 2010.)

And remember, these figures are just for the direct provincial civil service. They do not include other aspects of the public sector, including the health system ($300-million increase since 2004), post-secondary education system ($130-million), or provincial crown corporations ($45-million).

Incidentally, that last class, crown corps, have collectively had their payrolls increase by over 60% during the same period. In that time, their total number of employees has increased by just 5%.

What's up with that?

The name game

2011-09-27T20:37:00.003-03:00

The Tellytorialist complains, properly so, on Monday:

Cheers: to labelling. Or branding. Or something. You have to like the title given to the new Conservative omnibus crime legislation by its authors. They went with the lovely title “The Safe Streets and Communities Act.” Sounds like a new, improved detergent. Other possibilities? For the next change to the country’s environmental legislation, how about “The Happy Trees and Flowers Act”? Simple wildlife legislation is so dull, so how about the “Cute Bunny and Bambi Act”? And just in case George Orwell’s “1984” has fallen down your memory hole, it’s worth considering that, in the novel, the Ministry of Truth was in charge of propaganda, the Ministry of Plenty was in charge of rationing, the Ministry of Peace was in charge of war, and, most of all, the Ministry of Love was in charge of law and order. So when the feds introduce the “Internet Oversight, Security and Privacy Act,” (or some equally pleasant-sounding variant) better watch what you say. Anywhere.

This isn't new.

Starting around the middle of second session of the 40th Parliament — that would be the fall 2009 semester — government bills started to get the "branding" treatement, including the bizarre use of something called an "Alternative Title" that must have driven the highly-competent and professional drafters at the Department of Justice completely and utterly bat.

So it was that Parliament was called on to consider C-32, the Cracking Down on Tobacco Marketing Aimed at Youth Act. C-36, the Serious Time for the Most Serious Crime Act. C-47, the Technical Assistance for Law Enforcement in the 21st Century Act. C-60, the Keeping Canadians Safe (Protecting Borders) Act.

The title of almost every single government bill in the last session of the last pre-election Parliament went through the same politicization process: Keeping Canadians Safe (International Transfer of Offenders) Act; Jobs and Economic Growth Act; Balanced Refugee Reform Act; Fairness at the Pumps Act; Ending House Arrest for Property and Other Serious Crimes by Serious and Violent Offenders Act; Combating Terrorism Act; Increasing Voter Participation Act; An Action Plan for the National Capital Commission (sans "Act"); Standing up for Victims of White Collar Crime Act; Protecting Children from Online Sexual Exploitation Act; Eliminating Pardons for Serious Crimes Act; Fighting Internet and Wireless Spam Act; Safeguarding Canadians’ Personal Information Act; Eliminating Entitlements for Prisoners Act; Copyright Modernization Act; Creating Canada’s New National Museum of Immigration at Pier 21 Act; Cracking Down on Crooked Consultants Act; Strengthening the Value of Canadian Citizenship Act; Ensuring the Effective Review of RCMP Civilian Complaints Act; Ending Early Release for Criminals and Increasing Offender Accountability Act; Celebrating Canada’s Seniors Act; Strengthening Military Justice in the Defence of Canada Act; Strengthening Aviation Security Act; Sustaining Canada's Economic Recovery Act; Protecting Canadians by Ending Sentence Discounts for Multiple Murders Act; Preventing Human Smugglers from Abusing Canada's Immigration System Act; Improving Access to Investigative Tools for Serious Crimes Act; Investigative Powers for the 21st Century Act; Investigating and Preventing Criminal Electronic Communications Act; Fair and Efficient Criminal Trials Act; Protecting Children from Sexual Predators Act; Enhanced New Veterans Charter Act; Preventing the Trafficking, Abuse and Exploitation of Vulnerable Immigrants Act; Improving Trade Within Canada Act; Protecting Victims From Sex Offenders Act; Ensuring Safe Vehicles Imported from Mexico for Canadians Act; Serious Time for the Most Serious Crime Act (reintroduced); Tackling Auto Theft and Property Crime Act; Penalties for Organized Drug Crime Act.

There aren't enough gerunds in the Library of Parliament.

Where did this abominable practice come from?

From Ontario. From Mike Harris' version of Ontario, in fact, whither the practice was imported from Congress and state legislatures south of the border. In fairness, both the government and the opposition parties in Ontario enthusiastically embraced the cheese, whence the Freezing of Compensation for Members of the Assembly Act; Fewer School Boards Act; Taxpayers Savings Municipal Amendment Act (Ottawa-Carleton Region); Crackdown on Illegal Waste Dumping Act; Tax Cuts for People and for Small Business Act; Prevention of Unionization Act (Ontario Works); Zero Tolerance for Substance Abuse Act; Lower Property Taxes in Sudbury Act; Fairness is a Two-Way Street Act (Construction Labour Mobility); Safe Schools Act; Save Our Architectural Heritage Act; and the hysterically funny Good for the Goose is Good for the Gander Act and Balanced Budgets for Brighter Futures Act.

No word yet on whether the Harris Conservatives' Fewer Politicans Act will be answered, federally, with the More Politicians Act, when the House of Commons is enlarged.

This is a vile, tacky, appalling practice, that should offend the sensibilities of anyone who has a modicum of respect for tradition and decorum, one that should be stamped out, but one which, sadly, probably never will be.

How to spot a plant (VI)

2011-09-23T13:18:00.003-03:00

A fasctinating comment on this CBC web story:

"After reading all 3 party platforms, I will have to vote PC in this election," CBFA said.

At 3:30 p.m., on the day before the third party to release its platform actually released its platform.

Three things

2011-09-22T14:30:00.006-03:00

Let us consider three Things, in the abstract at first:

Each of the Things is represented by a different colour. The year-over-year increase in the cost of each Thing is shown for Years 1 through 5, as compared to what the Thing cost in a baseline Year 0. You can clearly see that the Blue Thing has had by far and away the biggest increase, pushing $2-billion by Year 5. The Yellow Thing, which is in actual fact a subset of the Blue Thing, has increased by nearly $800-million by Year 5. The Green Thing, by contrast, is about $56-million more expensive in Year 5 than it was in the baseline Year 0. Expensiver, to be sure, but an order of magnitude or more smaller than the other Things.

Got that?

Good.

* * *

Now let's put some names to those numbers, and remove them from the world of abstraction.

The first set of columns, in blue, shows the increase in provincial government program spending as compared to a baseline of fiscal year 2006-07. This was the year in which Danny Williams, rattled by the hit his popularity took during the three months in 2004 in which he actually tried to rein in spending, abandoned all pretext of being a conservative, hooked fire hoses up to the public treasury, and started spraying money around. Until the day he abruptly left office, he never stopped. The unrevised figures for fiscal year 2011-12 show program spending that's nearly two billion-with-a-b dollars higher than it was five years ago.

The second set of columns, in yellow, show the increase in the provincial public-sector payroll; i.e., the total salaries of provincial civil servants, employees of the public health and education systems, and of provincial crown corporations. (2011 figures are preliminary estimates.) Not only has the provincial government been on a hiring spree during the Williams years, it's been on a pay-raise spree, too. The net effect is a provincial public sector that is approaching a billion dollars more expensive now than it was in 2006.

The third set of columns, in green, show the impact of the provincial Liberal party's pledge to index public employee pensions, starting with a 2.5% increase in Year 1, and a cost-of-living increase, to a maximum of 2%, in each year after that. This chart assumes that the maximum 2% is reached every year, and, importantly, that not a single public-sector pensioner — how to put this delicately? — becomes permanently pension-inelegible due to unavoidable biological reasons during that time.

Whatever the merits, or lack of merits, in the pension-indexing platform plank, it is hypocrisy of the highest order on the part of the punditocracy, and, especially, of anyone in the Progressive Conservative Party, to suddenly claim to have found Fiscal-Responsibility Jesus in these past 48 hours.

Where have these people been for the past eight years?

[Data sources: Newfoundland and Labrador budget estimates, Statement IV, passim; Statistics Canada CANSIM Table 183-0002; basic arithmetic.]

Answer key

2011-09-22T07:16:00.000-03:00

The questions:

This is a screen-cap of the ~~Progressive Conservative~~ ~~Dunderdale2011~~ NewEnergy Party website entry page as of late on Day 1 of the 146-hour campaign.

Can you spot the element what's not there?

Bonus points: can you spot the one visual element carried over from the ~~Progressive Conservative~~ ~~Dunderdale2011~~ NewEnergy Party campaign in 2007?

The answers:

Missing in action: almost any reference to the PC Party. The initials "PC" only appear once, on the "Our Team" button. The logo is relegated to the footer of the page, in washed-out blue camouflage colours.

The one visual element inherited from 2007? The calm blue ocean.

Next up

2011-09-21T06:04:00.000-03:00

During the 2007 provincial election campaign, the now-defunct PC Party leader's tour team would wait until very late at night, or even into the wee hours of the morning, before posting the agenda for the next day's public leader's tour events.

In 2011, the ~~Dunderdale2011~~ NewEnergy Party seems to have decided to do away with such public notices altogether:

Nice work if you can get it (III)

2011-09-21T00:18:00.000-03:00

This chart compares the number of annual sitting days of the amateur legislature of Newfoundland and Labrador, notionally a province, with the number of sitting days of the sittingest territorial legislature in any given year, and with the number of meetings of St. John's city council, a municipal government:

In all but one year since 2001 inclusive, the sittingest territorial legislature has out-sat the House of Assembly. (That legislature is generally that of Yukon, although each of the other two territorial legislatures has been the sittingest at least once during that time.) In provincial election years 2003 and 2007, all three territorial legislatures out-sat the House of Assembly; as recently as 2009, two of three territorial legislatures did.

In five of the past eleven years, including 2011 to date, St. John's City Council has met as often, or more, than the House of Assembly which created it.

"An impartial and effective public service"

2011-09-20T17:25:00.002-03:00

A fascinating snippet from a CBC report on the he-said-they-said campaign pension promise issue:

Meanwhile, the Department of Finance told CBC News that the Liberals' plan would add $1.2 billion in additional liabilities to the pension plan.

The fascinating bit?

Who the they are.

Why on earth is the Department of Finance — the Department — commenting on anyone's electoral platform in the middle of a provincial election campaign?

Luke Joyce can be reached for (further?) comment at 709-729-6830 or 725-4165.

Nice work if you can get it (II)

2011-09-20T12:05:00.003-03:00

This cleverly colour-coded chart shows the number of sitting days of the House of Assembly, by calendar year, going back to 1987. Columns are coloured according to the governing party which controlled the legislative agenda for most of the year. Pale colours indicate election years, during which there is naturally less time for House business to begin with. (The 2011 figures are for year to date.)

Disregarding election years, during the Clyde Wells era the House sat an average of 88 days a year. Under Tobin, that plummetted to 53, declining further to 51 under Grimes, and 49 under Williams.

Something to bear in mind, when incumbent MHAs, or fresh-faced candidates, come to your door, auditioning for what has become, in essence, Newfoundland and Labrador's most lucrative part-time seasonal job.

Visual quiz

2011-09-20T00:30:00.002-03:00

This is a screen-cap of the ~~Progressive Conservative~~ ~~Dunderdale2011~~ NewEnergy Party website entry page as of late on Day 1 of the 146-hour campaign.

Can you spot the element what's not there?

Bonus points: can you spot the one visual element carried over from the ~~Progressive Conservative~~ ~~Dunderdale2011~~ NewEnergy Party campaign in 2007?

Nice work if you can get it

2011-09-19T07:44:00.000-03:00

This is the agenda for this afternoon's meeting of St. John's City Council.

The City of St. John's has a population of about 100,000, a budget in 2011 of just under $225-million, and a municipal work force of 1200 to 1400, depending on the time of year.

This will be City Council's thirty-third meeting of 2011.

That is the same number, co-incidentally, of sittings that the House of Assembly has had this year.

The House of Assembly is the legislature for a province of just over 500,000 people, whose government has budgeted nearly $8-billion in expenditures this fiscal year; a government with over 11,600 people directly on the payroll, with another 21,000 working in the health-care system, nearly 11,000 in the public post-secondary educational institutions, more than 9500 in the public education system, and over 2000 who work for provincial crown corporations.

Thirty-three.

In three of the past six years, St. John's City Council has had as many meetings, or more, than the House of Assembly has had sittings.

So far in 2011, there has been at least one territory — the NWT — whose legislature has out-sot the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly. It has been a decade since this provincial legislature out-sat all three territories; every year since 2001, at least one territorial legislature sat more.

It has been 16 years since the elected House of Assembly held more sittings than the appointed Senate.

Only once in the past decade has the Newfoundland and Labrador House of Assembly ranked higher than eighth, out of all thirteen provinces and territories, in terms of number of sitting days of its legislature.

With a ridiculously abbreviated provincial election campaign about to start, here's a good question you may want to ask any incumbent who shows up at the door looking for your vote:

Good sir/madam, if you don't seem to like the job very much, if you don't want to provide oversight of government, if you don't want to spend time working on sound legislation, hearing from witnesses in committee, and all the other things that healthy legislatures in healthy democracies like PEI and Nunavut do, why on earth should I hire you again this time as my MHA?

(Some of) Alberta votes

2011-09-18T15:16:00.003-03:00

The results of the first round of the Alberta PC leadership election, beautifully mapped and colour-coded by candidate, and by whether the candidate got a majority (dark colours) or plurality (pale colours) of the vote in any given district.

A donation has been made on your behalf

2011-09-15T06:04:00.002-03:00

An interesting story appeared on p. A3 of the Carbonear Compass on Tuesday, reprinted in the Telegram and Western Star on Wednesday, in which Terry Roberts reports, in part:

Carbonear Mayor Sam Slade is defending the town’s practice of donating to the Progressive Conservative party, saying “we know how they work on our behalf.”

Slade also points out the town would support other political parties if there was a request.

“If it was a Liberal function tomorrow, and we were asked to purchase tickets, we would do the same,” Slade says.

According to the 2010 report on donations to political parties in this province, the Town of Carbonear made two separate donations to the PC party — one for $100 and a second for $150.

[...]

Past reports indicate the Town of Carbonear made a $400 donation to the party in 2009, while the Town of Harbour Grace made a $160 donation in 2009.

Only one other municipality — the Town of Badger, at $ 400 — made a donation to a political party in 2010. It, too, was to the PC party.

[...]

When asked if it was a wise and appropriate use of taxpayers’ money, Slade replied by saying the donation was a council decision.

“The town should support this. This is how council felt about it,” Slade explained.

Deputy Mayor Ches Ash said the donations were related to a June 2010 fundraising dinner hosted by the Carbonear-Harbour Grace PC district association. Ash said council unanimously approved the spending of $ 500 to purchase a table at a June 7, 2010 meeting.

He said the town approved a similar expenditure this year.

Ash said the decision to purchase the tickets was made at a public meeting, with the funds coming from the town’s promotions and marketing budget.

“We saw that as a legitimate expense within that budget. In doing that, council makes every effort to spend our money in a responsible way … and we didn’t see that as being unreasonable,” Ash said.

Here's the minute of the 2010 donation:

And the minute of the one which shows up in the 2009 disclosure:

The third donation, referred to in Roberts' report as having been approved earlier this year, does not yet seem to show up in the town council's minutes.

Private for Whiff83

2011-09-14T22:09:00.006-03:00

This chart shows three items from MUN budgets over the past 1.5 decades: the amount MUN collected in student fees, the amount MUN received from provincial government budget votes, and the amount MUN spent on its academic programs.

And here, to put things into perspective, are the MUN student fees paid, expressed as a percentage of the university's academic budget:
If recent trends continue through 2011, MUN students will have paid just under 20 cents of every academic expenditure dollar. Students already pay less than 20% of MUN's entire budget, when non-academic expenditures and all revenues are factored in.

[Data source: MUN Financial Reports.]

Voting with their wallets (I)

2011-09-14T00:01:00.000-03:00

This graph shows how the NS and NL provincial political donations discussed in yesterday's post are distributed according to the size of individual donations.
In Nova Scotia, between 2005 and 2010, nearly 60% (by number, not dollar value) of all personal contributions over $99.99 to central party coffers* came in the form of contributions of $100 to $199.99.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, that share was less than 40%.

Political parties in NL depended more than there NS counterparts on contributions in the $200+ and subsequent brackets. The $400+ and $500+ brackets were particularly higher in NL than in NS, accounting for 8.6% and 7.7% of all contributions in Dannystan, vs. 4.7% and 2.0% in Nova Scotia.

So not only does the party financing system in Newfoundland and Labrador depend heavily on St. John's area donors, to a degree that Nova Scotia does not depend on metro Halifax, the NL party system depends much more on well-heeled donors who can contribute multiple hundred dollar-bills at a go, rather than the NS party financing system, which skews more towards the smaller donor.

Note carefully that these figures only take into account contributions $100 and over, in order to adjust for differences in both the disclosure reporting requirements, and actual reporting practices, in the two provinces. However, the total number of contributions under $100 is shown in pale colours in the above graph, expressed as a percentage of the contributions over $100, in order to provide an apples:apples comparison. Given the vagaries of reporting practice, the <$100 figures should be taken with a hefty grain of salt.

* Corporate, union, and other contributions, and inter-party transfers, excluded. This data also only includes contributions to provincially registered parties, not election candidates or Nova Scotia electoral district associations.

The amazing atrophying democracy (II)

2011-09-13T00:15:00.000-03:00

Despite the best efforts of Elections Nova Scotia to obfuscate the data, this corner has been able to crunch a few numbers which put the atrophying of party democracy in Newfoundland and Labrador into a comparative context.

The following charts were generated by extracting data from Elections Newfoundland and Labrador and Elections Nova Scotia's legally-mandated disclosures of party and election campaign financing. The data under consideration here include personal donations, from in-province donors, to registered parties, from 2005 to 2010. (Nova Scotia figures are not available on line for earlier years.)

That is to say, corporate, union, and strange miscellaneous donations to parties are not included. In addition, only contributions to central party coffers are included; contributions to election and by-election candidates, and, in Nova Scotia, to district associations, are excluded. Donations from out-of-province contributors are also excluded. Finally, in order to ensure and apples-to-apples comparison, Nova Scotia contributions under $100 (about 5.6% of the total) have also been excluded, to ensure that the data set is comparable to the Elections NL disclosure, which is only required for donations of $100 or more.

Note that these figures may also be further slightly distorted due to

(A) Different reporting conventions in the two provinces: In NS any given contributor's multiple donations are usually aggregated for the entire year, while in NL there are some donors who give multiple reportable contributions throughout the year, and who are reported separately for each contribution.

(B) The fact that there were two provincial general elections in NS during the study period (2006 and 2009) vs. just one in NL (2007). Elections tend to shake loose the cash.

With these caveats in mind, let's look first at the average size of personal contributions to party finances. At first blush, the two provinces are roughly comparable in this respect. In Newfoundland and Labrador, the average party contribution was about $311, while in Nova Scotia it was $250. In both provinces, the average contribution tended to be smaller from rural donors than from donors in the province's largest metropolitan areas (St. John's or Halifax, including their suburbs, respectively.)
However, the overall similarity in donation size masks a stark and important contrast between the two provinces. This chart shows the total rate of donations, expressed as the number of donations per 1,000 of population (as estimated in 2010) per year:
As previously noted, political contributions in NL are heavily skewed by source towards the St. John's urban area. There were about 1.8 party finance contributions, per person, per year from the St. John's metropolitan area. In the rest of the province, the figure is an anemic 0.4 contributions per 1,000 per year. In a town of 2,000 people (say, Wabush), you might statistically expect just under one person to have contributed to the NL party financing system in any given year.

Urban or rural, financial participation in party politics pales in comparison to Nova Scotia, where the number of political contributions averages 3.3 per 1,000 per year. Furthermore, there is very little skewing of this figure towards the provincial capital (3.6, vs. 3.1 in the rest of the province.)

The same trends appear in the total monetary value of party contributions, again expressed in population terms (dollars per person per year):
In NL, the entire population donated an average of $0.28 — 28 cents — per person per year to the registered provincial political parties. For metro St. John's, the figure is $0.59, which means, conversely, that in the rest of the province the average contribution was a meagre $0.10 per person per year.

By sharp, sharp contrast, in NS the average contribution per person per year in rural areas alone was $0.68, higher than the figure for St. John's, and just over $1.00 for metro Halifax. Nova Scotia as a whole scored $0.82 per person per year, so while there was still a marked difference between rural and urban participation in the party system, it was nothing like the near non-existence of political parties in rural Newfoundland and Labrador.

Finally, this chart shows the two metro areas' relative shares of their provincial populations, the total number of party finance conributions, and their total dollar vallue. (Remember, contrary to very popular myth, St. John's does not have nearly as large a share of the provincial population as it thinks it does.) Again, the relatively egalitarian situation in Nova Scotia contrasts vividly with the northeast-Avalon-dominated participation in political parties across the water:

In Newfoundland and Labrador, politics is a spectator sport, not an audience participation event, especially in rural areas.

These numbers make it abundantly clear that it will be very difficult for the political parties in Newfoundland and Labrador to accept making the major, and positive, legislative change which came into effect in 2010 in Nova Scotia, namely, the prohibition of all corporate, union, and organizational donations to the political and electoral process, and all contributions from outside the province.

Care to elaborate?

2011-09-12T00:33:00.004-03:00

Elections Newfoundland and Labrador provides a singularly unhelpful single-word answer to a Frequently Asked Question:

Stop the madness

2011-09-11T00:02:00.002-03:00

OK, it's bad enough that some idiot, many years ago, had to go and invent "island portion of the province", where "Newfoundland" was a perfectly good name that had been in use for hundreds of years.

But this? Really, folks?

The Hebron project, located approximately 350 kilometres offshore the island portion of Newfoundland and Labrador, is a joint venture among the province’s energy corporation, Nalcor, on behalf of the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador, Chevron Canada, ExxonMobil Canada, Petro-Canada and StatoilHydro Canada.

Petermania (XVII): Blocked!

2011-09-08T19:54:00.002-03:00

Stunning Terra imagery from Wednesday, showing the main remnant Petermann Ice Island, plus other daughter bergs, in White Bay and off the Baie Verte Peninsula.

Source image: NASA/GSFC, Rapid Response

labradore

About that "infrastructure strategy"

Pease in a pod (XIV)

Better late than never?

Show your work

What is the Premier trying to hide?

What a hypocrisy this government is

The people need to know

Arrogance and disrespect

Finally, a legislative agenda

Boo hoo

Hello, chickens, welcome to the roost

Flies (II)

Royal Newfoundland Constabutory (III)

Flies

Metaflipflop

Money can't buy you sense

Sound familiar?

Attawapiskat

Delete delete delete

One more thing

Terminator

All across the province

Timelines

Getting things done

Vancouver votes

The forecast (III)

A political short story

Odd map out

Rolling in dough

Salesmen

All just a little bitta history repeating (VII)

Moonlighting

This just in!

(Some of) Alberta votes (III)

Turnabout

Reduction ad absurdam (II)

Reduction ad absurdam

Mapping the way to 2012

Happy Thanksgeaster (II)

Yes, let's talk about leadership

Might be flies on some of them guys

Happy Thanksgeaster

A tale of two cities

Vexatiously Omitting Contextual Matter

Trending topic

Voting with their wallets (II)

37-33

On the importance of debate (III)

Barbarians at the gates

Politician, heal thyself

On the importance of debate (II)

Democracy Watch watch (III)

Sourest. Grapes. Ever.

On the importance of debate (I)

Torngat turnout

These things take time

On incumbency

If only the target would stop moving

You lose, you gain

Horseshoes

NL Votes 2011 — and 2015

No excuses

Virtual Over-air Campaign Megaphone

Dunderdinner!

It pays to advertise

Comparative government (II)

Numbers

Uncommon look and feel

Stop asking questions

Something doesn't add up. Literally.

Unprofitable at any price?

Another despatch from the memory hole

But what does it mean?

Comparative government (I)

"Have" municipalities

A man of few words

Fair and balanced

(Some of) Alberta votes (II)

The Amazing Atrophying Democracy (III)