Facts and figures

Paul O'Neill is a very reputable historian, and any city would be better off to have a semi-official history as well-researched and written as his The Oldest City is for St. John's.

Which is why it's painful, but necessary, to correct him when he writes, in a strange aside to his letter in today's Telegram on the "oldest city" debate:

Perhaps they are thinking of Canada before 1949 when, the votes of 2,000 Newfoundlanders caused the map of Canada to be changed. From my studies conducted on two continents over a period of more than 50 years, I have no doubt whatever there were permanent livyers in what is now called St. John's by the end of the 1500s.

In actual fact, the result in the second 1948 referendum was 78,323 for Confederation to 71,334 for Responsible Government, a margin of 6,989. It would therefore have taken 3,495 votes to have changed column for the result to have changed to a 50%+1 "win" for Responsible Government.

Of course, O'Neill mentions only the votes of "Newfoundlanders". Considering Newfoundland alone, the margin of victory for Confederation was less, 5,074 votes. It would have taken just 2,537 votes to have swung the other way for the result to have changed, if Labrador, too, hadn't had the franchise for only the second time in history.

Labrador contributed 2,681 votes to the Confederate side in July 1948, and 1,915 net Confederation votes to the overall Confederation margin of victory. Labrador ballots contributed almost a full percentage point to the 4.6% margin between the Confederates and the Antis that led to Confederation in 1949.