Demo/graphics (I)(b)

The chart below shows the annual estimates of natural population change for the St. John's CMA and the Census Divisions of eastern Newfoundland. (The same caveat as before concerning CD 1 (Avalon) applies here.)


The Bonavista Bay and Peninsula region has seen an annual, and generally growing, surplus of deaths over births every year since 1997/1998. The Burin Peninsula saw natural population decline in 1999, with some recovery, followed by an even greater decline.

In St. John's and the rest of the Avalon, natural population decline is being staved off, so far, but barely. The twenty-year trendline could well see the rural Avalon, and even the urban areas, exhibiting natural population decline within the next three to five years — especially given the growing figures on the deaths column of natural population change.