Great Economist

It's bad enough when the local chambers of commerce, local industry associations, or fly-in/fly-out journalists get sucked into believing in the "Williams Effect".

It's quite anther when Great Economists do so. The headline:

Harper says province did well during recession

Yet another person who should know better rejects reality and substitutes their own.

Contrast the HappyTalk with a bit of, y'know, facts, from real economists. As the Royal Bank reported just weeks ago:

Since a more vigorous bounce-back in the economy was previously expected to be visible at this stage in Alberta, we have revised our real GDP forecast down for 2009 to -3.4% from -2.8% in the September Provincial Outlook. This would rank as the second sharpest contraction among provinces after Newfoundland & Labrador.

[Emphasis added]

The data tables appended to the RBC report are also instructive: the year-over-year change in employment (the number of persons employed, not the employment rate) in Newfoundland and Labrador in 2009 was -2.5% — the worst score of any of the ten provinces.

The forecast growth in employment for 2010 is 0.6% — again, the most pessimistic forecast for any of the ten provinces.