Quebec 2012: the what-ifs

A few well-crunched (preliminary) numbers on yesterday's Quebec provincial election:


If 445 voters in two districts had voted Liberal instead of PQ, a hung Parliament would have resulted, where the two main parties each get 52 seats.

If 976 voters in three districts had voted Liberal instead of PQ, the Liberals would have formed a one-seat minority government.

If 2761 voters in nine districts had voted PQ instead of the eventual Liberal or CAQ winner, the PQ would have formed a one-seat minority government.

If 5508 voters in nine districts had voted PQ instead of Québec solidaire, the PQ would have formed a one-seat majority government.

If 10,639 voters in thirteen districts had voted Liberal instead of the eventual PQ or CAQ winner, the Liberals would have formed a bare majority government.

If 19,033 voters in 22 districts had voted CAQ instead of the eventual PQ or Liberal winner, there would have been a three-way tie for first place in the seat count (41 each).

If 20,804 voters in 23 districts had voted CAQ instead of the eventual PQ or Liberal winner, the CAQ would have formed a one-seat minority government.

If 64,574 voters in 44 districts had voted CAQ instead of the eventual PQ or Liberal winner, the CAQ would have formed a bare majority government.

64,574 is about 1.4% of all valid votes cast in the election.