Vivisecting the Living Document (III)

Back during the 2007 provincial election campaign, then-Liberal leader Gerry Reid included in his platform something he called the "Building Labrador Fund", which would be specifically devoted towards a massive infrastructure and public works program in Labrador.

Premier and PC Party leader Danny Williams poo-poo'd the idea, saying Gerry Reid would "bankrupt the province!" Much attaboy-Danny ensued, especially after Reid consciously wore the criticism as a badge:

"He said we were going to bankrupt the province. Well, then, let's bankrupt it, if that's the case," Reid told a rally.

The Building Labrador Fund, according to the then-Liberal platform, called for expenditures in Labrador of $1-billion over a period of ten years.

Danny Williams-Government, on the other hand, is now in year four of its pompously-styled Northern Strategic Plan for Labrador, which, according to officially-sanctioned bumpf, is valued at $250-million over five years.

That is to say, the difference between Gerry Reid's "bankrupting the province", and Danny Williams' whatever it is Danny Williams is doing, is $50-million per year once you annualize the putative Building Labrador Fund and the shell-game Northern Strategic Plan for Labrador over their respective terms.

In other words, the difference between Gerry Reid's "bankruptcy" plan on the one hand, and Danny Williams' "repackage stuff government does or would do anyway" plan on the other, is a knife-edge margin of just 0.67% of the province's entire budgeted gross expenditure for the 2010-11 fiscal year.

Momentum (X)

And finally in this round, a cross-Canada comparison of the per-capita provincial public-sector payroll in each province, according to preliminary 2009 data. The figure for Canada is the aggregated figure for the provincial public sector in the ten provinces.

Momentum (IX)

And here's the same data as the previous chart, the provincial public-sector payroll measured per-capita, but this time indexed to inflation:

Momentum (VIII)

The provincial public-sector payroll expressed as an amount per head of population:

Momentum (VII)

And here's the same data as the previous chart, only this time indexed to inflation to provide a better apples:apples comparison:

Momentum (VI)

This cleverly colour-coded chart shows the evolution of the total provincial public-sector payroll, which in 2009 was pushing $2.5 billion.

Again, "provincial public sector" is the sum of the direct provincial civil service, as well as the health boards, school boards, and public-sector post-secondary institutions.

Momentum (V)

CORRIGENDUM: Now with correct captions!

The first batch of posts in this series looked that the size of the provincial public sector over time.

The following three graphs show a snapshot in time, comparing all provinces to one another, and to the all-Canada average, based on provisional figures for 2009.

Note that the all-Canada average is not the average of provinces, but rather the figure for the entire provincial public sector in the ten provinces combined. (Territories are excluded.)

Here are the comparative figures for provincial public-sector employees per-capita:

As a percentage of the labour force:
And as a percentage of the employed labour force:
Data sources are the same as those given in earlier postings in the series.

Momentum (IV)

And here is the public-sector labour force expressed as a share of the entire provincial employed labour force. Again, Newfoundland and Labrador's status as the top-ranking province in this measure is of long standing, but even against this historical backdrop there has been a sharp uptick in recent years, with new historical highs.

If current trends in public- and private-sector employment continue, by mid-decade one in every four working persons in the province will work in some capacity for the provincial government or other provincial public-sector entity.

* Previous caveat about 2009 data applies.

Momentum (III)

Here is the size of the provincial public sector expressed as a share of the entire provincial labour force. For almost the entire period for which statistics are available, Newfoundland and Labrador's measurement has ranked at or near the top, among all provinces. In the three most recent years, it has ticked upwards to set new all-time highs. By 2009, nearly one in five persons in the labour force — active or otherwise — was employed in the provincial public sector.
* Same caveat applies regarding 2009 data.

Momentum (II)

Nearly one in every ten people in the province – including children, retirees, the elderly, the unemployed, and the infirm — works in the provincial public sector. This per-capita measurement is the highest of any of the ten provinces, a rank which the province attained in 2007 and has kept every year since.

* The caveat to the original post applies here; 2009 data is preliminary. For the purposes of interprovincial comparison, it is equally preliminary for all provinces. The population used as the basis for calculation in each year is the first-quarter population estimate.

Momentum (I)

The ostensible finance Minister, whoever that is this year, recently elucidated his government's guiding fiscal principle. As reported by the CBC:

"This is not a time to slam on the brakes," Marshall said, describing the budget as a strategy to steer the province through to more financially secure times.

"It's about momentum; it's about keeping the momentum going," he told reporters before unveiling the budget in the house of assembly.

And by the Quebec Daily Newspaper:

"We must maintain the momentum here at home and continue to invest to provide jobs and opportunities for the people of our province."

The m-word crept into the Thrown-Together Speech, into the budget speech itself, and into at least four of the attendant Budgetosity 2010 press releases.

And sure, just like many of the funding announcements, even the "momentum" theme is recycled.

But there is a kernal of truth in the drive by the finance minister, whoever that is, to fetishize momentum. Herewith, some incontrovertible statistical proof of something economicky that actually has momentum behind it.

This graph — cleverly colour-coded, of course — shows the size of the provincial public sector over the past three decades. It is drawn from the same source as an earlier, well-publicized examination of another level of government's public-sector spending; one which curiously has not shown nearly the same degree of interest in the valuable data contained in other series in the same table. (Funny, that.)

For the purposes of this, and subsequent charts, "provincial public sector" is taken to be the sum of employment in the provincial general government (i.e., the civil service); provincial health and social service institutions; (public) universities, colleges, trade and vocational institutions; and school boards.

* Caveat: the figures for 2009 in this, and subsequent charts are preliminary.

Sycophant of the Month: March 2010

Total number of ProvGov press releases issued in March: 189 (+67 from February).

Total number with the phrase "Williams Government" (or "Williams Administration"): 28 (+17 from February).

Sycophancy index: 14.8% (+5.8% from February).


From a Williams-Government perspective, March came in like a lamb, but went out like a lion. In the entire first week, only Jerome! Kennedy and Tom Hedderson got anywhere near the goal.

Things picked up a little in the second week, with Hedderson scoring twice for the lead, Kennedy keeping things interesting with one, and Denine, Skinner, and Sullivan each placing singles.

The third week, with the Great One back from spring training in Florida, was heated between our front-runners. Hedderson landed his fourth, but Jerome! got as aggressive with him as he did with those free-loading doctors, tying things up before Hedderson came back with another to reclaim the lead and close the week.

Jerome! roared back to tie it at the start of week four, then Clyde Jackman knocked in his career first; a proud achievement that was, sadly for him, just a punctuation mark in the back-and-forth, as Hedderson finished another low-scoring week by re-taking the lead.

Then – Budgetosity 2010.

The Eponymous One Himself tipped in his first since November to kick things off. Hedderson then cemented a lead, followed by Dr. Darin King, and Skinner! with his second. But Jerome! still had fight in him.

Joan Burke’s name went up on the big board, her first in over a year, followed by another from King, and then Dunderdale’s only one of the month; remarkable also for being the first scored under the “Williams Administration” rule since December 2008.

Marshall, surprisingly, also only got one for the month, but what a one: dropping Our Dear Name not once, not twice, not thrice, not fourice, but fivice times, a new record.

He was followed by a tired but feisty Kennedy, leaving everything he had out there, to tie it back up with Hedderson.

Sullivan showed the stuff she is made of by landing two more, and along with John Hickey closed out Budgetosity 2010, and the month: with a total score of 28, the WilliamsGovernmentiest month ever!

Budgetosity Week 2010 was the third-WilliamsGovernmentiest month on record, and as noted, Marshall scored the WilliamsGovernmentiest point in human history.

Finally, as a side note for real stats junkies, Tom Hedderson scored the highest flunky:minister ratio on record, wherein it took seven such flunkies – worth their weight in gold, naturally – to draft “quotes” and field questions on behalf of just one Minister.

And if all that isn’t exciting enough: it’s a tie! Jerome! and Hedderson have seven each, January champ Sullivan three, King and Skinner two, and Jackman, Himself, Denine, Burke, Hickey, Dunderale and Marshall singles.

So it’s on to the tie-breaker, which doesn’t actually break the tie: both Jerome! and Hedderson assisted Hickey on his only point of the month, but that was their only assists of the month.

(And it gets better still! The last time we had a monthly tie, in January 2009, guess who was atop the podium then?)

What a game! What a month!

Your March Sycophants of the Month: Jerome! Kennedy and Tom Hedderson! Congratulations!