The invisible Tories

According to CRA polling over the past year, support for Danny Williams and the PC Party has ranged anywhere from 69% to 73%, roughly 10% to 15% higher than the 58% which his party received in the 2003 general election.

So... where are all these Tories?

In the five by-elections from Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi, through to Humber Valley, the Tories are down 6,652 votes in the five districts combined. True, that reflects lower turnout across the board, but even after factoring out the depressed turnout for all three major parties, the Tories have been hit disproportionately hard: 36% fewer Tory votes were cast in the five by-elections than in the 2003 general, as against 28% fewer Liberal votes, and 17% fewer NDP ones.

Perhaps most revealing, only in Port-au-Port was there any significant boost in Tory fortunes compared to 2003, where the Tory vote share was up 6%, even as the overall number of Tory (and all) votes fell dramatically. In Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi and Kilbride the Tory vote was up by less than a percentage point; in the other two by-elections the Tory vote share was substantially lower than in 2003.

In the five districts overall, the Tory vote was 3.4% less than in 2003. Not a massive loss of vote share, but not the vote gain that should have been expected if Danny and his party are, as we keep hearing, riding so high in the polls. The Liberal vote was 1.3% higher, even after sitting out Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi. Excluding that district, the Liberal vote is up in the remaining four districts by a combined 3.5%; the Tory vote is down 4.5%. And including Placentia-St. Mary's from 2005, when Danny's support was stratospheric, the Tory vote share in the 2005 through 2007 by-elections is 7% less than it was in 2003.

So, where are all the people who say they support Danny Williams when polled?

Or, looking at the other side of the coin, why do people who are polled say they support Danny Williams?

On to Labrador West!