Reading the entrails, I

It is possible, easy, in fact, to read too much into by-elections. There's a limited amount and geographical spread of data available (even if Danny Williams has now presided over more by-elections in one term than any post-Confederation first minister). Comparing multiple by-elections, which are held on different dates, risks being even a mug's mug's game. However, a number of things jump out about the recent, not-quite-finished, set.

First, Humber Valley, if the count as of tonight holds up, will be the first Liberal by-election win since Roland Butler in Port-de-Grave in 2001.

Second, the five consecutive Tory by-election wins from Humber West to Placentia and St. Mary's inclusive, is without precedent in post-Confederation provincial politics. The Tories have also won eight of the past ten, tying their own record which they acquired with Placentia and St. Mary's last year.

Third, long-term by-election trend don't always say much about general election party fortunes. Moores and Peckford governed for almost 18 years between them, but were smoked 10 to 6 in by-elections during the 1970s and 1980s.

Finally, much has been made of by-election turnout. It's difficult to meaningfully measure turnout trends over time. District populations fluctuate. Seasonal and even day-to-day weather changes can influence the turnout. Turnout figures since the advent of the Orwellian-named "permanent voters list" are almost meaningless; low turnout may be the product of an inflated denominator (a voters list riddled with the dead, relocated, and outmigrated) as much as a deflated numerator (absolutely low turnout).

The best measure, therefore the ratio of the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election, to the total number cast in the same district in the previous general election.

And that's where things get scary.

In Newfoundland and Labrador, where politics is a popular spectator sport, by-elections have historically broken the by-election stereotype of low turnout. Of the 44 contested by-elections since Confederation, three-quarters have had turnouts at least 80% that of the previous general election. Nearly a third have had turnouts higher than the general election; five by-elections in the early part of this decade saw that level of interest. (Click to enlarge chart; colours represent the party winning the by-election according to the traditional colour scheme.)

The 70% ratio seen in last fall's Signal Hill-Quidi Vidi contest was at the low end of the historic range. But it was part of a more significant longer-term trend; from the heights of 100% plus in The Straits, Humber West, and Bonavista North just five and six years ago, there have now been eight consecutive sub-100% by-elections, including all-time low Kilbride, and third-last place finish Ferryland.

The low, and lowering, turnout ratios, especially in rural districts, may reflect, in part, the reality of outmigration and population decline. What, though, to make of supposedly booming St. John's and its environs?

And what if, as many are starting to suspect, this is all a symptom of something more serious? Do we even know the diagnosis, let alone the cure?