The Danny Williams Effect
An interesting bit of pseudo-statistics from the Globe and Mail:
On the back of a phenomenon industry watchers are calling “the Danny Williams effect” – after the Newfoundland and Labrador Premier who hammered out the oil deal – home sales in St. John's surged 68 per cent from October to November, data from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show.Mkay.
But if the recent monthly home-sale "surge" is part of the Danny Williams Effect, does it mean that other statistical trends in St. John's, or in the entire province, are also attributable to that Effect?
What about the population decline of more than 12,000 since the last quarter of 2003?
Or the declining size of the labour force?
Accelerating absolute out-migration?
Accelerating net out-migration?
Declining housing construction in the province overall...
...and in St. John's in particular?
Is it only a certain, selected, month-over-month statistic that is the result of the Danny Williams Effect — but not the important statistical indicators, quarter after quarter, year after year, that might not reflect quite so favourable on the Big Guy and his time in power?
If Danny Williams is responsible for sunshine, why not for rain?
Conversely, if Danny Williams isn't responsible for rain, why attribute sunshine to his authorship?
Accelerating net out-migration?
Declining housing construction in the province overall...
...and in St. John's in particular?
Is it only a certain, selected, month-over-month statistic that is the result of the Danny Williams Effect — but not the important statistical indicators, quarter after quarter, year after year, that might not reflect quite so favourable on the Big Guy and his time in power?If Danny Williams is responsible for sunshine, why not for rain?
Conversely, if Danny Williams isn't responsible for rain, why attribute sunshine to his authorship?
posted by WJM @ 8:13 PM
4 Comments:
http://www.statcan.ca/Daily/English/071219/d071219b.htm
Maybe we've turned a corner.
Maybe We (I think you're supposed to capitalize it) have.
But if so, it's a bend in the downward curve that We have seen in many of Our economic indicators since January 2004 (and before).
If Danny takes the credit for the corner being turned, if indeed it has, then he must also take the blame for the previous course, no? He's either responsible for the direction of the economy, or he's not, but he can't be both, depending on whether it's politically expedient for the Glorious Leader narrative or not.
The "previous course" was begun long before Danny took office - you say so yourself in your last comment. I'd say it wouldn't make any sense to put all blame in his hands whereas the Liberals can't claim to have governed when things were doing so well.
Either way, I'd say that a couple billion barrels of oil and the high value of minerals/metals has more to do with the upturn than Danny Williams.
The "previous course" was begun long before Danny took office - you say so yourself in your last comment.
Yip. The outmigration trend has persisted for decades, with minor blips of net in-migration... more on that, later.
However, the trend for the second half of the 1990s and early 2000s, up until the end of 2003, was turning the other way. Starting in 2004, that reversed, and outmigration actually picked up steam. If things have turned a corner, it's only because the trend of the Danny Williams era (so far) has reversed itself. Maybe.
I'd say it wouldn't make any sense to put all blame in his hands whereas the Liberals can't claim to have governed when things were doing so well.
You would blame Liberals, but not Danny?
Either way, I'd say that a couple billion barrels of oil and the high value of minerals/metals has more to do with the upturn than Danny Williams.
Yes, as the wags say, he didn't put the oil or the nickel in the ground.
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