Math

Yet more strange inconsistency emerges from today’s infrastructure announcement.

As noted earlier, according to VOCM the Trans-Labrador Highway munnypot of “up to $51.5-million” — which is not the same thing as $51.5-million, and which is split with the Argentia access road project — will be used to widen 200 kms of the TLH, and hard-top 40 kms.

However, over on the Ministry of Truth (Federal), David Cochrane reports:

The big one for Labrador is the Trans-Labrador Highway, this is the stretch of road between Lab City, Churchill Falls, and Happy Valley-Goose Bay, it’s $100-million to hard top that, put a hard surface on it, the province has said its money is there today, the feds came up with their money. So that’s 100-plus million dollars that’s gonna be done on that. Just to give you a sense, people on the island hear about the Trans-Labrador Highway and this stretch of road in particular, this is like paving from St. John’s to Deer Lake. That’s how long this stretch of road is.

Fascinating, for several reasons.

First, the TLH project is “100-plus million dollars”. The federal share, as announced today is “up to $51.5 million, representing a maximum of 50 per cent of total eligible costs of these initiatives.” Again, this bears repeating over and over and over again for those too dense or devious to appreciate the distinction, “up to $51.5-million” is not the same thing as $51.5-million itself. (Similarly, recall that “as early as” is not the same thing as “by”.)

Given that the “up to $51-million” is split with Argentia, the necessary implications are (take your pick):

The federal share will be less than the 50% commitment that Danny’s fertile imagination thinks he has from Harper; or

The federal share will be the maximum 50% of eligible costs, but the project’s eligible costs will total less than $103-million, even if ever penny of the federal contribution is spent on the TLH, with nothing for Argentia.

One of the two must, arithmetically, be true.

Second, the project described by Cochrane is for the re-surfacing of the section of TLH from Labrador City to Happy Valley-Goose Bay, which is also known as Phase I of the TLH.
There are two other Phases, numbered, appropriately enough, II and III. Phase II is the segment built from Red Bay to Cartwright in the late 1990s and early 2000s. Phase III, which is still uncompleted, will link Phases I and II.

How does the “hard-topping” of Phase I of III, constituting less than half the length of the Trans-Labrador Highway, constitute its “completion”?

Third, VOCM reports the hard-topping of 40 kilometres of TLH. Cochrane reports the hard-topping of the entire stretch from Happy Valley-Goose Bay to Labrador City, which is 533 kilometres. Were the two radio reporters at the same press conference?

Fourth, as Cochrane says, the segment of TLH to be paved “is like paving from St. John’s to Deer Lake”. Well, not quite: at 533 kilometres, it’s more like paving from St. John’s to Springdale, but it’s close enough. But even if the project didn’t include, as VOCM reports, the widening of 200 kilometres of existing road, and even if every penny of the up to $51.5-million, cost-shared up to 50% with the provincial government, totaling up to $103-million, was spent on hard-topping that section of the TLH, could you really do so for less than $200,000 per kilometre?

Finally, Fabian Manning, MP, and Felix Collins, MHA, who represent the Argentia area in their respective chambers, were at today’s announcement.


None of the Tory MHAs for Labrador were.


Do the math.