"We can't allow things that are inaccurate to stand." — The Word of Our Dan, February 19, 2008.

Friday, October 03, 2008

Debit where debit is due?

Tom Marshall is school-girl giddy with glee over the latest Statscan population report:
Newfoundland and Labrador’s population has increased by 1,436 from July 1, 2007 to July 1, 2008, representing the province’s first annual population increase in 16 years, said the Honourable Tom Marshall, Minister of Finance and President of Treasury Board.

According to Statistics Canada’s Demography Estimates, released on September 29, Newfoundland and Labrador’s population grew by 0.3 per cent to 507,895, as a result of positive net-migration of 1,713 people.

"This is exciting news for our province and is reflective of the renewed confidence that exists among Newfoundlanders and Labradorians here and abroad," said Minister Marshall. "New resource projects, such as the recently announced Hebron project, along with others on the horizon – the Lower Churchill, the VALE-Inco facility in Long Harbour, Hibernia South, White Rose expansion, expansion of the Iron Ore Company of Canada mining operations and the potential expansion of the Come-by-Chance oil refinery – will create even more employment opportunities in our province. Given the province’s strong economy and bright future, we are optimistic that we will see continued population growth in the years to come."
Mkay. Take at face value his assertion that developments started before his government came to power (Voisey's Bay, Hibernia, White Rose); before Confederation (Labrador West's iron ore industry; held up by his government (Long Harbour, offshore expansion); or entirely hypothetical ("potential expansion", "on the horizon", "Lower Churchill") are drawing them back.
Bringing them home. Every mother's son. Etc.

In short, Marshall believes his own bumpf, and ODP's airport thronged with hundreds of imaginary arrivals, and truly thinks that his government's statism and jingoism are really responsible for the late spate of net-inmigration.

In other words, Marshall believes that Danny Williams is responsible, through the phenomenon that the gullible call the "Williams Effect" (ooh - band name!) for provincial population trends.

At least when they are favourable to the Williams Government narrative.

But surely to goodness, if demographics are so driven by provincial government policy, then the first term of Danny Williams-Government, during which net-outmigration was accellerating, must also be the product of, how you say, the Antiwilliams Effect... right?

If Danny Williams-Government must be credited with net in-migration, then he also has to be debited for the nearly four years of net out-migration that happened, how you say, on his watch.
Because, as this graph of quarterly net inteprovincial migration shows, that is exactly what happened to the province's demographics. Where were Tom Marshall and his crack team of statisticians and press-release writers then?


At 2:23 AM, October 03, 2008 , Blogger VKN said...

Hey, WJM. What's with the Danny bashing? Your assertion that the outmigration of his first four years in office should accrue to him is weak. He'd just gotten into office for God's sake! Give the man a chance to make up for all the damage done (giveaways, wastage, etc.) by the previous governments. I think the fact that the outmigration has turned around "on his watch" may very well be a credit to him. If the outmigration was still ongoing, you might (might!) have a point. Do you think he can flick a switch and make everything alright? Chill! Give the man some credit. As far as I'm concerned, he's the best we've ever had!

At 10:36 PM, October 04, 2008 , Blogger WJM said...

No, it isn't, Rick. Bye, Rick!

At 10:37 PM, October 04, 2008 , Blogger WJM said...

Thanks for proving my point, "moneybags".

Now, go and figure out what your real name and email address are, OK?


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