"We can't allow things that are inaccurate to stand." — The Word of Our Dan, February 19, 2008.

Thursday, January 31, 2013

Squeeze play

The MQO poll reported today, projected across the province using uniform swing models, would result in a very narrow, hobbled, and unstable PC minority government of 18 or 19 seats.

Incumbent Premier Kathy Dunderdale's would not be among them: on the numbers reported today the NDP would dominate metrotown, including a sweep of the city of St. John's itself.

The NDP would surge to second place, with 17 seats, while a Liberal caucus of a dozen or more would hold the balance of power. Both opposition parties would gain their new seats by cannibalizing the festering carcass of the Tory electoral map from 2011. Very helpfully for them, neither of the two opposition parties would pick up seats from the other.

This map shows the notional province-wide projection, using traditional party colours. For the Liberals and NDP, dark shades indicate "holds", while paler shades indicate pickups from the governing PCs. For the Tories, pale blue indicates notional wins by a margin of less than 10% over the closest opposition challenger.

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