Today's CRA release, run through a couple of swing models, would yield a feeble PC minority government.
With a province-wide popular vote of NDP 39, PC 38, and Lib 22, the Tories would be expected to bleed at least 15 seats to the current opposition parties.
One of those districts would be Virginia Waters. The PCs would be expected to lose all of their remaining St. John's city seats, as well as most of those in the surrounding suburban communities.
Overall seat totals would be PC 20-22, NDP 17-18, and Liberals holding the balance of power at nine or ten. For two districts — Gander and Bellevue — the statistical models are in slight disagreement, and so are shaded in pale grey. Even if both those seats are notionally allocated to the PC column, it isn't enough for an outright majority in the Legislature.
For the opposition parties, dark colours indicate holds and pale colours are pickups. For the incumbent PCs, dark blue is a hold, while paler blue is a hold by less than a notional 10% margin of victory.
Labels: pretty maps