Innumeracy redux

From the Globe and Mail:

Poll hints at a Liberal edge in Quebec City
HEATHER SCOFFIELD

QUEBEC CITY — Quebec Liberal Leader Jean Charest kicked off the second week of his election campaign on Wednesday with a twinkle in his eye, as a new poll suggested his arch-rivals in the Parti Québécois were losing momentum.

Both Mr. Charest and PQ Leader André Boisclair were in the provincial capital, fighting over a key battleground where the third party, the Action Démocratique du Québéc, stands to make gains at the expense of the other two parties.

A survey of the Quebec City region by polling firm CROP put the Liberals in the lead with 32 per cent of the vote, followed by 30 per cent for the ADQ and 25 per cent for the PQ. The poll was paid for by Le Soleil of Quebec City.

While the poll is regional and has a large margin of error (plus or minus four percentage points), it suggests that the PQ is in trouble in this seat-rich area, while the ADQ is gaining enough momentum that even the leading Liberals need to watch their backs.

"Even the leading Liberals need to watch their backs"?

The PLQ took 46% of the vote province-wide in 2003, a score which they have only polled at or above twice since that election. The last time they did so was in September, 2003. For the last twelve months, they have averaged a polling score 15 points below their actual 2003 vote; of late, that recul has shrunk to eight or nine points, but even factoring in the federalist "ballot box bonus" that invariably confounds the best-designed and best-sampled Quebec provincial vote-intent polls, the Charest Liberals are still well back of being assured of forming government... let alone a majority one.

The PLQ should have been watching its back since a long time ago.