"We can't allow things that are inaccurate to stand." — The Word of Our Dan, February 19, 2008.

Thursday, March 15, 2007

Si la tendence se maintien...

Yes, it's an insta-poll.

Yes, the sample size was eensie-weensie.

Yes, the election is two weeks away.

But what the heck. Throw caveats and caution to the wind, and play along:

You plug CROP's overnight post-debate poll figures (PLQ and PQ 27, ADQ 29) into everyone's favourite Quebec election forecastomatron.

And it spits out a PQ minority government.

With the PLQ as the third party.

And Jean Charest no longer its leader.

The ADQ sweeps the Chaudière-Appalaches; comes close to doing so in the Bas-Saint-Laurent, Capitale, and Mauricie; makes major inroads into the Saguenay, Abitibi, the Townships, the Richelieu Valley, and even La Couronne.

The PLQ doesn't pick up a single seat. Not surprising. No one in the media seems to have noticed yet, that his recent suppose "bounce" in the polls notwithstanding, Jean Charest has not polled at or above what he got in the election in 2003 since... well, since 2003.

The PQ picks up a bunch from the PLQ, mainly in the off-island 'burbs, but only after losing a bunch more to the ADQ in rural areas.

Seat count: PQ 45, ADQ 41, PLQ 40.

And Sherbrooke is not in the PLQ's column.

"Margin of error", "two weeks is a lifetime", "three-way splits", "strong local candidate", yes, yes, yes, yes.

But still. It's fun. Too bad there's not a look-on-Bernard-Derome's face forecaster.


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