Negotiating tactics

The outcome of the Mother of All Meetings is being covered, with remarkable uniform reporting, across the various outlets this weekend.

The Ministry of Truth reports:

Harper Wraps Up Trip
December 2, 2007

Following his face-to-face meeting with the Prime Minster, Williams said what remains is a balance of 10 billion dollars. He says if the government was able to receive similar compensation, then the province has gotten that monetary benefit.

Jamie Baker at The Telegram:

The premier said he put forward a few options that might resolve the dispute during the meeting, but didn’t elaborate on exactly what those options might be...

But before drawing his next breath he quickly added there was an “artificial timeline” with the possibility of a federal election.

A loan guarantee for the Lower Churchill project, Williams said, would not replace the promise made.

But he said it could be considered as part of any federal package.

Gloria Galloway at the Globe and Mail:

"I put forward options to the Prime Minister as to how we could possibly go forward on this and I've left that with him," Mr. Williams said...

"If the government of Newfoundland and Labrador was able to receive similar compensation in some form or another, whether it's through that formula or something else, then we as a people have gotten back monetary benefit," he explained.

For instance, he said, a loan guarantee for the Lower Churchill Hydro project, worth between $6-billion and $9-billion, "wouldn't come close to meeting the shortfall," but it could be part of the package. And, he added, if the federal government decided to channel some of its green infrastructure money to that project, that could also be considered redress.

Charles Mandel over at the National Post:

Newfoundland Premier Danny Williams says his talks with Prime Minister Stephen Harper yesterday to resolve their feud over equalization and offshore revenues were cordial, but the two men parted agreeing to disagree...

They met yesterday afternoon at a St. John's hotel where Mr. Williams proposed a series of projects to Mr. Harper to help solve what he calls a potential "$10-billion problem."

That's what the media got out of the Premier's unilateral unimic scrum.

What he, himself — sorry, He, Himself — said, was:

What I said before and I said going in, this is about principles, but it's also about money as well. At the end of the day, the promise and the principle converts to cash for the bottom line for the people of Newfoundland and Labrador. That's about what the deal is about. So in dealing with the federal government before on the issue, it came down to a negotiation of what the bottom line was for the province. So we're trying to find options to get compensation. I mean, basically pretty well open the meeting with the Prime Minister saying, look, we got approximately a $10- billion problem here. How are we going to resolve it?

...

We are in to a interregnum where we're trying to find or at least this government is certainly trying to find a solution to get around this and find a comparable way to compensate the government of Newfoundland and Labrador and more importantly the people of Newfoundland and Labrador on the promise and the commitment and the value of the commitment that was made to the people of this province and that's what we're exploring. And we've talked, you know, about considering that in the near future.

...

I don't want to put words in his mouth [for once! - ed.], but no, he didn't offer any solutions. We came in [how many of "We" were in the room? - ed.] and said there are several issues that are important to the people of Newfoundland and Labrador that have a value, and, you know, the monetary problem that we have is approximately a $10-billion problem, so we're asking you to take some of these things into consideration.

...

If you take 2006 when it was there 14 years and you divide that in to $10 billion, you get about $700 million a year. That's the magnitude of the commitment. If the government of Newfoundland and Labrador was able to receive similar compensation in some form or another whether through that formula or something else, then we as a people have gotten that monetary benefit.

And He Himself specifically says that financing for the so-called Lower Churchill could be part of that "monetary benefit", that "similar compensation":

A loan guarantee is just that, and it's only a guarantee if we default. That's a good project, that's an annuity, that's a license to print money.* That's why we're going to do it alone and that's why we want to have a big piece of the action. Forgive me, we're going to do it in partnership with others. So a loan guarantee is not a big deal. It will enable us to pick up money a little bit cheaper. We'll get a little lower on our interest rate. That's what the benefit is, but that's not $9 billion in cash and don't think for one minute it is. I know you know the difference. That's not a big deal. That could be part of a package...

Great negotiating, there, Great Negotiator™.

You are willing to let your mortal enemy off the hook for the one big promise... just as long as he keeps the smaller ones he made at the same time? The equalization promise, like the Lower Churchill financing one, stem from the same source: Harper's January 2006 letter to Williams.

Are the other, pre-existing, big-ticket promises — TLH funding, infrastructure funding, waste management — now an acceptable substitute for the equalization thingy? Can Harper claim the Gander weather office partial re-opening as credit against said equalization thingy?

Has Danny Williams, in effect, conceded that he is willing to "say yes to less"?



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* If the so-called Lower Churchill project is, as Danny Williams says, "a license to print money", then why is it absolutely imperative to him that he externalize the risk to the greatest extent possible? Why wouldn't Great Businessman™ really and truly "go it alone"?