"We can't allow things that are inaccurate to stand." — The Word of Our Dan, February 19, 2008.

Sunday, December 07, 2008

63towin (VII)

The evolution of the National Assembly seat projections since the last election, as given by running the polls graphed below through two differents votes-into-seats models. Each data point represents the average of the two projections for each party in each poll. For graphic purposes, the mid-point of the polling period is used as the date of the poll. The solid line is a four-poll moving average of seat projections. The vertical scale is in cohorts of nine; 63, an even multiple of nine, is a bare majority:

And again, the same data since the start of the campaign:

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