"We can't allow things that are inaccurate to stand." — The Word of Our Dan, February 19, 2008.

Wednesday, August 03, 2011

The forecast (I)

Some interesting numbers are to be found in a document entitled Exhibit 1 Addendum: NLH 2010 PLF for the Island Interconnected System, which Nalcor has filed with the Public Utilities Board.

Let's turn some of those numbers into pretty charts. Yes, let's.

First, here is Nalcor's working assumption for population (in thousands, axes do not cross at zero):
Now, note that while this is one of the primary forecast assumptions in connection with the Island Interconnected system's planning load forecast — "Island" here referring to the one called Newfoundland — the population figures are more in line with those of the province as a whole. That is, including Labrador. Labrador, where the Muskrat Falls power would be generated, but not actually used.

By 2021, Nalcor's working assumption is that something (Island? province?) will have a population that has declined to 508,000. It would probably be indelicate to point out that 2021 came early this year, according to the latest Statistics Canada intercensal population estimate.

Second, here's Nalcor's figures for estimated number of domestic hydro customers on its own, and Light and Power Byes' grids (in thousands, axes do not cross at zero):
Population goes down. Number of domestic customers goes up. More on that anon.

Here are Nalcor's assumptions about the total domestic electrical demand (in Gwh):
And this is Nalcor's assumption as to how much of that domestic demand will be consumed in residential (and other domestic) heating (as a percent, axes do not cross at zero):

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At 2:09 PM, August 03, 2011 , Blogger rod said...

These charts must reflect the STD rate increase mentioned in the bondpapers.


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