"We can't allow things that are inaccurate to stand." — The Word of Our Dan, February 19, 2008.

Monday, December 08, 2008

Unliveblogging the Quebec election

Well, that was less exciting than the last time.

9:00 — Tale of the tape: The ADQ won 44% of the vote in the 41 ridings they won last spring. Tonight, they are at 27% in those same ridings. The PQ is leading in 19 of the 41, the PLQ in 16. Mario Dumont is clinging to 6.

9:02 — PLQ is ahead in the Maggies.

9:04 — The adéquiste is running third in 24 of the 41 ADQ-won ridings from 2007.

9:14 — Amir Khadr is holding to a narrow lead for Québec solidaire in Mercier, which is one riding over from Mulcair's federal NDP riding. Françoise David is trailing narrowly for QS in neighbouring Gouin. They are also on the board in Outremont, Laurier-Dorion, Sainte-Marie—Saint-Jacques, Hochelaga-Maissonneuve, and Rosemont.

9:14 — Chevarie is clinging to a narrow PLQ lead over the PQ down in the islands.

9:17 — How many guys are there named Jean-Yves Roy in politics down in the Matapedia-Matane area, anyway?

9:20 — Hey, CBC: the Lower North Shore polls always come in early. Lorraine Richard is racking up an absolute majority of the vote for the PQ in Duplessis, just like in the old days. Another election, and she'll be in Denis Perron country.

9:21 — Hmm... the electoral map at this hour, provincially, looks an awful lot like it did at this hour, federally, in November 2000.

9:30 — See:

9:36 — Well, crud; does this mean a spherical three-D vote model for the 2012 election?

9:39 — With a biggish number of polls still left to go in Dubuc, the PQ margin of lead is two votes.
9:44 — No huge surprise, but Maka Kotto's blue parachute has landed him safely in Bourget.

9:48 — The PQ owns Saguenay—Lac-Saint-Jean again.

9:56 — In ridings that the ADQ won in 2007, the ADQ is down 17%, the PLQ up 10%, and the PQ up 7%. In ridings that the PQ won, the ADQ is down 14%, and the other parties are each up about 6%.

10:00 — PLQ pickups from the PQ: Les Iles, Gaspé, Rouyn-Noranda-Témiscamingue, Abitibi-Est. The eastern and western extremities of the province are redder than they have been in years.

10:03 — Bill Clennett is on the board in Hull for Québec solidaire. Without googling, who is Bill Clennett?

10:07 — Charest takes 58% in Sherbrooke to the PQ's 29%; slightly more comfortable than the 37%-33% margin last year.

10:11 — The ADQ's least worst showing is down in the Maggies, down from 5% to 1.5%, for a loss of "only" 3.5%. Next time... next time.

10:12 — Y'know, Charest is only a couple of by-elections away from losing that hard-earned second, non-consecutive, majority.

10:23 — The final tale of the tape: the Liberal vote share is up in 121 ridings, the PQ in 117, the ADQ in none.


OK, maybe not:

11:04 — Dubuc ends up in the PLQ column by about two points.

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At 9:37 AM, December 09, 2008 , Blogger Mark said...

Bill Clennett - Canada's first "Flag Day" celebrity!


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