Popularity in theory and practice

The theory: According to CRA, Danny’s The Party’s popularity stand at 77% in November, the same as it was in August. That’s seven points higher than The Party got in the 2007 general election.

Meanwhile, the provincial Librils stand at 16% in November, statistically unchanged from 15% in August, and down six (or seven) points from the 2007 Gritterdammerung of 22%.

The practice: In the September by-election in the Straits and White Bay North, which occurred between CRA polling periods, the Liberal vote share was up 15% over the 2007 general election result, while The Party’s vote share was down by 19%.

In the November by-election in Terra Nova, just days after CRA finished its fieldwork, The Party’s vote share is down 19%, while the nefarious Libril vote is up 21% — all but identical, for statistical purposes, with the September by-election variation.