Valid points

Some Tiny Tories had an interesting exchange with CBC legislative reporter David Cochrane as last night's by-election results rolled in:

Here are some more valid points:

Not only did Liberal Crocker get more votes in Trinity–Bay de Verde than Tory Johnson did in 2011, he had one of the highest raw vote-tallies of any Liberal since this historically "swing" district was created in the redistribution of 1975:

 

In percentage terms, Crocker had the largest vote-share of any Liberal candidate in the district ever; it was larger than two of Johnson's three personal majorities; and was second only to her blowout in the 2007 Tory landslide.

 



Pretty valid points.

Numbers game

So there was a by-election on November 5th in Conception Bay South, and after all the unofficial counting was done, Elections Newfoundland and Labrador pegged the preliminary result as 2102 to 2026 for Liberal Rex Hillier.

On Saturday, the Elections agency released the official count (which is not, as some people think, a recount), which modified the result to 2102-2034. The winner remained unchanged.

VOCM dutifully reported the dramatic narrowing of the numbers on Saturday...

 

...and again on Sunday:

Which is all kind of odd, given that the revised, official numbers were the same ones that were being entwootened out by partisans and media types on by-election night itself:

These were the unofficial figures as tallied up from those brought back to the two main candidates' headquarters by scrutineers or "runners" from each of the camps. In fact, the Liberal HQ maintained an up-to-the-minute Google Doc which, after the last poll reported, looked like this:

 



All of which is to say that, between Wednesday and Saturday, the only people who had the incorrect vote-total in the Conception Bay South by-election, were the people who are actually in charge of administering by-elections.

Nothing to see here, folks, move along.

Through the electoral looking-glass

On October 7 — a week ago — Elections Dannystan, in conformity, presumably, with one of Danny Williams' more creative brain-farts, announced that Special Ballots were now open in the by-election to fill the vacancy in Trinity–Bay de Verde.

Elections Dannystan even posted a button on its website:

Today, a by-election writ was issued.

To fill the vacancy in Conception Bay South.

Accordingly, Elections Dannystan added another button to its website:

That is to say: For a week now, Elections Dannystan has been promoting early voting in a by-election which does not yet exist, but did not promote early voting in a by-election which now, as of today, does exist.

This.

Is.

NUTS.

Effect v. Cause

Cory Hurley reports for today's Western Star:

Paul Davis, Steve Kent or John Ottenheimer will assume the role as leader after the Sept. 13 election at the party convention.

Depending on what the leader, and future premier asks of him, Marshall will then step down as premier.  

"It's on the weekend, so it could be right then ... a day after ... a week after," Marshall said. "I'm not sure. It will be whatever the next leader wants or asks."  

As with [sic] his seat in the House," Marshall said he will resign when the new premier chooses to call a byelection.

Um....

As the Progressive Conservatives have shown repeatedly over the past decade, election law is not their strong suit. Marshall has it exactly backwards: Premier Kent/Ottenheimer/Davis can't call a by-election in Humber East unless and until Marshall vacates his seat. You can't call a by-election for a district which still has a sitting member.

Seriously.

Schmurnout

Both BondPapers and The Telegram fret the low turnout in the late by-election in Humber West.

Maybe. Maybe not. As measured against the number of people who voted in the previous general election in the same district, turnout in Humber West was 78% — ninth among the fifteen by-elections since 2003; fifteenth among the twenty-one during which Danny Williams was leader or leader-apparent of his party. Not great, but not quite in the basement, either.

But why measure against the previous general election turnout?

Well, because it's certainly a long-shot better than measuring against the total number of electors on the list, when that latter figure is clearly a work of creative fiction.

The phantom (elector) menace?

A curious little anomoly in the by-election related statistics led this corner to produce the following pretty pretty graph.

It shows the percentage change in the total number of voters on the electors list in each provincial by-election since January 1, 2000, as compared to the number of electors on the list in the same district in the preceding general election. Green bars indicate growth, red is decline:


Why on earth were the lists almost always smaller in by-elections, prior to the last general election? Why have they almost always been larger in each by-election since? Given that the strange little trend applies to most suburban St. John's districts as well as to rural areas that are experiencing population decline, what can account for this picture? And why is the "growth" in electors so large as of late? Theories, or even wild and uninformed speculation, is more than welcome.

By way of comparison, here is the equivalent graph for all federal by-elections during the same period, with the exception of the three most recent ones. (Final tallies of electors in those three have not yet been published by Elections Canada.) The vertical scale is the same in this graph as in the previous one. Federal by-elections in Newfoundland and Labrador are marked with an asterix.



Only two federal by-elections during this period have had voters lists that varied in size by more than 5% from the previous general election.

Only five provincial by-elections have had voters lists that so varied by less than 5%.

Programming note (II)

A reminder that Humber West by-election twooting should commence here at this link in short order.

The Hum on the Humber

A long-overdue check-in with the provincial by-election that has been largely flying under the radar since it was called a couple of hours ago.

NTV: PC Candidate Skips Humber West Debate

CBC Corner Brook: Radio profiles of Liberal candidate Mark Watton, NDP Rosie Meyers, and some other guy.

CBC Here and Now: Fish Cove's native son reports.

CornerBrookerOnline: Local YouTube journalism at its best. Too bad we out here in teh internet didn't get to see Watton's boots too.

Topsail

According to the latest CRA poll, with fieldwork done in February, 80% of respondents would have voted for The Party in a real election.

80%.

That's 10% higher than The Party actually polled in the last real election.

On Tuesday night in Topsail district, and in a real (by-)election, The Party polled 6% lower than it actually polled in the last real election in that same district. Yes, you've seen this movie before. Repeatedly.

The preliminary numerical turnout was 3349 — a 40% reduction over the 5576 who voted in 2007.

For those keeping track, that is the third-most-anemic by-election turnout, measured against the previous general election, in provincial electoral history. (Only Kilbride 2007 and St. John's West 1997 were more anemic.)

Tea leaves (II)

As noted last night, the vote swing in the Terra Nova by-election on Thursday was 21% towards the Happy for the Liberals, and 19% towards the Sad for The Party

That’s a net change of 40% in the margin between the two main parties, which would reduce Danny’s The Party to a bare majority of the vote (51%) to the nefarious Librils’ 43% - not a very pleasant place for a chap who much prefers annihilating and humiliating his opponents to merely defeating them.

That swing would be enough, projected across the province as a whole, to defeat Tory incumbents outright in Isles of Notre Dame, Humber Valley, Bay of Islands, Torngat Mountains, Bellevue, Lake Melville, St. Barbe, Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune, Labrador West, and Bonavista North; keep Straits and White Bay North in the Liberal column after the recent by-election; and make election night uncomfortably close for other incumbent Tories in Exploits, Grand Falls-Windsor/Green Bay South, St. George’s-Stephenville East, Carbonear-Harbour Grace, Gander, and Trinity-Bay de Verde and Burin-Placentia West.

PS: Dear next Electoral Boundaries Commission... "and" spelled out, OR ampersands, OR dashes, but pick one, stick with it, and absolutely no slashes, OK?

Popularity in theory and practice

The theory: According to CRA, Danny’s The Party’s popularity stand at 77% in November, the same as it was in August. That’s seven points higher than The Party got in the 2007 general election.

Meanwhile, the provincial Librils stand at 16% in November, statistically unchanged from 15% in August, and down six (or seven) points from the 2007 Gritterdammerung of 22%.

The practice: In the September by-election in the Straits and White Bay North, which occurred between CRA polling periods, the Liberal vote share was up 15% over the 2007 general election result, while The Party’s vote share was down by 19%.

In the November by-election in Terra Nova, just days after CRA finished its fieldwork, The Party’s vote share is down 19%, while the nefarious Libril vote is up 21% — all but identical, for statistical purposes, with the September by-election variation.

We won’t have Trevor Taylor to kick around any more

Triv is out of cabinet, and come Friday, October 9*, will be out of the Bow-Wow Parliament altogether.

As per amendments brought in by Danny Williams-Government, who dramatically shortened the maximum duration of a vacancy in the House from three months to, well, two months, the by-election in Straits and White Bay North must be called on or before December 8, 2009.

Another “piece” of DW-G’s electoral reform was the shortening of the by-election campaign period. The minimum of 21 “clear days” is still in place, but Bill 40 in 2004 also instituted a maximum of 30 “clear days”. “Clear days” means the number of days between, but not including, the calling and holding of the by-election.

If the by-election were called today, it could be held on any date between October 23rd and 31st inclusive, although the only traditional Tuesday polling date available would be the 27th.

If Hizonner in Council waits as long as possible to call the by-election (December 8), and goes for the maximum campaign (30 “clear days”), the by-election could be held, at the latest, on January 8, 2010. If the by-election is not to impinge on the Christmas period, it will have to be called much sooner rather than much later, and sooner still if the new MHA is to take his or her seat in time for the abbreviated fall sitting.

The fall series, of late, has been starting in late November, and ending in early December.

And then there’s that one, final wrinkle in the package of electoral reforms brought in by DW-G. In 2007, the Elections Act was amended by changing the provisions around special ballots. As per s. 86 (4), an elector can apply for a special ballot “not more than four weeks” before the election or by-election is even called. Good burghers of the Petit Nord, contact Elections Dannystan and vote today!

PS: the electoral district of Straits and White Bay North includes a lovely rural community called Flowers Cove.

* The dates in this posting have been re-calculated on the basis of Triv's end date as MHA: October 9th, not the 2nd as originally reported.