"We can't allow things that are inaccurate to stand." — The Word of Our Dan, February 19, 2008.

Friday, November 27, 2009

Tea leaves (II)

As noted last night, the vote swing in the Terra Nova by-election on Thursday was 21% towards the Happy for the Liberals, and 19% towards the Sad for The Party

That’s a net change of 40% in the margin between the two main parties, which would reduce Danny’s The Party to a bare majority of the vote (51%) to the nefarious Librils’ 43% - not a very pleasant place for a chap who much prefers annihilating and humiliating his opponents to merely defeating them.

That swing would be enough, projected across the province as a whole, to defeat Tory incumbents outright in Isles of Notre Dame, Humber Valley, Bay of Islands, Torngat Mountains, Bellevue, Lake Melville, St. Barbe, Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune, Labrador West, and Bonavista North; keep Straits and White Bay North in the Liberal column after the recent by-election; and make election night uncomfortably close for other incumbent Tories in Exploits, Grand Falls-Windsor/Green Bay South, St. George’s-Stephenville East, Carbonear-Harbour Grace, Gander, and Trinity-Bay de Verde and Burin-Placentia West.

PS: Dear next Electoral Boundaries Commission... "and" spelled out, OR ampersands, OR dashes, but pick one, stick with it, and absolutely no slashes, OK?



At 7:36 AM, November 27, 2009 , Blogger Edward G. Hollett said...

If things were that tight at the start of an election, you could be talking a very tough fight and theoretically look at a major shift. your projections would only be the start of it.

There have been past elections in this province where significant movement took place largely out of view of most of the pundits.


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