Tea leaves (II)
As noted last night, the vote swing in the Terra Nova by-election on Thursday was 21% towards the Happy for the Liberals, and 19% towards the Sad for The Party
That’s a net change of 40% in the margin between the two main parties, which would reduce Danny’s The Party to a bare majority of the vote (51%) to the nefarious Librils’ 43% - not a very pleasant place for a chap who much prefers annihilating and humiliating his opponents to merely defeating them.
That swing would be enough, projected across the province as a whole, to defeat Tory incumbents outright in Isles of Notre Dame, Humber Valley, Bay of Islands, Torngat Mountains, Bellevue, Lake Melville, St. Barbe, Fortune Bay-Cape La Hune, Labrador West, and Bonavista North; keep Straits and White Bay North in the Liberal column after the recent by-election; and make election night uncomfortably close for other incumbent Tories in Exploits, Grand Falls-Windsor/Green Bay South, St. George’s-Stephenville East, Carbonear-Harbour Grace, Gander, and Trinity-Bay de Verde and Burin-Placentia West.
PS: Dear next Electoral Boundaries Commission... "and" spelled out, OR ampersands, OR dashes, but pick one, stick with it, and absolutely no slashes, OK?
Labels: by-election fever