October 13, 2015

Let us consider some math.

Imagine, just for fun, that just enough voters migrate from voting PC in 2011, to voting for the runner-up candidate in each PC district, to cause the defeat of that PC incumbent.

The magic figure is 50% + 1 of the PC candidate's winning margin. If the Tory won 4000 to 3000, 501 voters need to change their minds to change the district outcome.

With this notion in mind, here are the first thirteen PC districts which would flip, giving the name of the incumbent, and the number of votes which would need to change hands:

1. Burin–Placentia West, Clyde Jackman: 21
2. Bonavista North, Eli Cross: 103
3. St. John's West, Dan Crummell: 138
4. Lake Melville, Keith Russell: 267
5. Labrador West, Nick McGrath: 332
6. Mount Pearl South, Paul Lane: 351*
7. St. George's–Stephenville East, Joan Burke: 354
8. Baie Verte–Springdale, Kevin Pollard: 364
9. Conception Bay East–Bell Island, David Brazil: 385
10. Grand Falls-Windsor–Green Bay South, Ray Hunter: 484
11. St. John's South, Tom Osborne: 487
12. Gander, Kevin O'Brien: 490
13. Bonavista South, Glen Little: 509

Let us pause for a moment, and consider that at this point, having notionally defeated incumbent Glen Little, the Progressive Conservatives no longer command an outright majority in the House of Assembly.

Shall we continue?

14. Placentia–St. Mary's, Felix Collins: 521
15. Grand Falls-Windsor–Buchans, Susan Sullivan: 709
16. Kilbride, John Dinn: 711
17. Lewisporte, Wade Verge: 732
18. Humber West, Vaughn Granter: 752
19. Cape St. Francis, Kevin Parsons: 755
20. Port de Grave, Glenn Littlejohn: 813
21. Bellevue, Calvin Peach: 825

At this point, having picked off Calvin Peach, the Conservatives are no longer the largest party.

And finally:

22. Port au Port, Tony Cornect: 828
23. Virginia Waters, Kathy Dunderdale: 832

With these two conversions, the PCs become the third-place party.

Onerous task, you might think, knocking off 13, let alone 21, forget 23 incumbent Tory members.

But remember this:

To reduce the Progressive Conservatives to a minority government, would mean flipping 8,549 2011 votes.

To relegate them to the opposition benches outright, would mean flipping 20,174 votes.

Those may sound like big numbers. But they represent, respectively, 2.2% and 5.3% of the total number of eligible provincial electors.

The target is in sight. Fire away.



* Entry corrected from original post