Changing landscape (II)

Today's Environics provincial vote-intent poll, reported by The Telegram, would notionally yield the following province-wide results, based on a uniform swing model.

The NDP would vault from third place to a slim minority government of 18 seats, with the balance of power held by the also-vaulting Liberals, with 12. Opposition holds are indicated here in saturated colours, with pickups from the governing party indicated in paler shades.


The governing Tories would be reduced to 16 seats, half of which would have a notional margin of less than 10%. Of particular note, they would be wiped out in the bookends of the province, Labrador and the City of St. John's. Tories in the suburban municipalities around St. John's would fare little better.

Two other seats, both in central Newfoundland, would be "too close to call" — defined here as having contradictory outcomes in the two different models which this corner uses to turn popular vote into projected seats.