"We can't allow things that are inaccurate to stand." — The Word of Our Dan, February 19, 2008.

Thursday, July 05, 2012

Changing landscape (II)

Today's Environics provincial vote-intent poll, reported by The Telegram, would notionally yield the following province-wide results, based on a uniform swing model.

The NDP would vault from third place to a slim minority government of 18 seats, with the balance of power held by the also-vaulting Liberals, with 12. Opposition holds are indicated here in saturated colours, with pickups from the governing party indicated in paler shades.

The governing Tories would be reduced to 16 seats, half of which would have a notional margin of less than 10%. Of particular note, they would be wiped out in the bookends of the province, Labrador and the City of St. John's. Tories in the suburban municipalities around St. John's would fare little better.

Two other seats, both in central Newfoundland, would be "too close to call" — defined here as having contradictory outcomes in the two different models which this corner uses to turn popular vote into projected seats.


At 9:46 PM, July 06, 2012 , Blogger Adam said...

Which parties would the 2 too close to call districts be between?

At 11:10 PM, July 06, 2012 , Blogger WJM said...

IIRC, Grand Falls-Buchans is Lib/PC, and Lewisporte is PC/NDP. I.e., one model predicts one outcome, and the other model, the other.

At 9:29 AM, July 09, 2012 , Blogger tbaird said...

Does this analysis take into account the regional breakdown provided by environics?

At 2:44 PM, July 09, 2012 , Blogger WJM said...

@tabaird, no, mainly because only the province-wide figures were out when I fired up the projector.

Using sub-provincials is a bit dodgier of a preposition, given higher margins of error, and also, surprisingly, they don't usually make that much of a difference.

(Heck, before the 1993 rise of regional parties, you could get a good ballpark federal projection out of all of Canada without even using regional figures.)

Using the Environics "NE Avalon" and "Rest of NL" figures instead, the individual projection changes in five districts: GFW-Buchans (from tossup to PC), GFW-GBS (Lib to PC), Port de Grave (Lib to PC), St John's West (NDP to tossup), and Trinity North (PC to tossup.)

(Both models call Lewisporte a notional tossup.)

Overall notional result changes to PC 18 (vs 16), NDP 17 (vs 18), Lib 10 (vs 12), and three tossups.


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