"We can't allow things that are inaccurate to stand." — The Word of Our Dan, February 19, 2008.

Thursday, August 22, 2013

The slope

Herewith, a graph of Newfoundland and Labrador provincial vote-intent figures over the past three years, cobbled together from a number of sources, including publicly reported CRA, MQO, Telelink, and Environics polls.

The graph shows each party's share of decided voters. The thick lines are the rolling three-poll averages, with the raw data as faint background lines. The colour scheme reflects the traditional party identifying colours.

The horizontal lines on the right half of the chart show the level of support that each of the three parties received in the October 2011 general election.

The governing Progressive Conservatives have steadily lost about 5% of their popular support per quarter, or more than 1% a month, since the start of 2011. They have lost well over half of the supporters who showed up to vote for them less than two years ago.

Other than a very brief post-election honeymoon, and a slight coming-up for air in late 2012, there is virtually no sign that the free-fall is coming to an end.

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