"We can't allow things that are inaccurate to stand." — The Word of Our Dan, February 19, 2008.

Wednesday, December 04, 2013

About that corner being turned

Here’s the notional district-by-district map* based on today’s CRA vote-intent figures. For the current opposition parties, dark colours indicate holds and pale colours are pickups. For the incumbent outgoing PCs, dark blue is a hold, while paler blue is a hold by less than a notional 10% margin of victory. Light grey indicates a district where the two projection models are in disagreement about the notional winner. The projection models do not take into account changes in affiliation of incumbent MHAs, including the impact of the NDP Big Snit and the Osborg migration from the blue to red teams. (Click to enlarge.)

The Liberal caucus would notionally jump to at least 29 members, with another nine districts too close to call — and all of those, potentially in the Liberal column — for a total of up to 38 seats. Between one and seven districts in St. John's and the suburbs are potential Liberal pickups. In fact, most of the “too close to call” districts are on the northeast Avalon. In Labrador, and off the Avalon, the Liberal party would be expected to sweep nearly every seat. The only notional PC hold, Humber East, is held by incumbent Tom Marshall, who has already made it clear that this is his last term in office.

Without bearing in mind the impact of the Big Snit, the NDP could retain a caucus of five members, including Snit members. The decline in the NDP support figures, while large compared to their recent high polling numbers, is not nearly as large when compared to their 2011 actual result. A notinal loss in The Straits–White Bay North would be offset by a gain in Burin–Placentia West. (Where is that court case, anyhow?)

The more important figure bearing on the NDP fortune is the ongoing suffering of the incumbent outgoing PCs, who have retained barely half their 2011 popular support. The PCs would notionally hold from six to ten seats, depending on how the “too close” races split. And one of those notionally “too close” districts, Carbonear–Harbour Grace, just went Liberal in a real-world by-election test, with an outright majority of the vote and a margin of victory of just over eight percent.

* To be taken with a grain of salt – the overall seat totals in swing models are more accurate than district-by-district projects, as the errors in the latter tend to cancel one another out.

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