Downward is upward

The PC MHA for Terra Nova is ever so pleased with the latest CRA poll

Our polling #s didn't go down overnight and they won't go up overnight but I am pleased to see an upward trend. Very positive result! #CRA
— Sandy Collins (@SandyRCollins) March 6, 2014

An uptick in the PC's popular support, within the margin of error of CRA's methodology, and one point less of support than the Abacus poll taken in the immediate aftermath of former Premier Dunderdale's resignation, might be the silver lining that the Tories are looking for. But the trend — the real trend — is not all that rosey.

Here is the four-poll rolling average of published popular opinion surveys over the past four years (click to enlarge):

Maybe the slight uptick in PC fortunes in the past half-year or so means something, and something that will last.

Or maybe it's just the third dead-cat bounce that the party's fortunes have seen since Dear Leader first noticed that his support was starting to soften in 2010.

The lay of the land – February 2014

CRA is out today with the first poll conducted after the dust has settled on Kathy Dunderdale’s resignation. Here is what the notional-projection electoral map would look like in a general election where the CRA vote-intent figures reflected actual popular support.

Dark colours indicate holds. Light red indicates notional Liberal pickups, while light blue indicates narrow PC holds. Grey indicates districts where the forecast models are in disagreement about the notional outcome. (Click to enlarge.)

The Liberals would take 28 seats – up from 25 in the other most recent poll by Abacus – including St. John’s West. Another nine seats would be tossups in which the Liberal candidate would be one of the contenders.

The incumbent PCs would retain at least eight seats, and would be contenders in eight of the previously-mentioned tossups. If all of the cookies crumbled their way, the PCs would have a remote chance of retaining up to 16 seats and official opposition status.

The NDP would notionally hold on to three seats... but one of those is St. John’s North, where things have changed. Note the important caveat that the forecast models do not take into account changes in party affiliation of the incumbent (St. John's North, St. John's South, Mount Pearl, Straits and White Bay North), nor a seat which has changed hands through a by-election (Carbonear–Harbour Grace). These districts are marked with an asterisk.

As with all poll projections, the overall seat-count result tends to be more accurate than the district-by-district count when the models are tested post-election. The errors in individual district forecasts tend to cancel one another out.

Interestingly, the notional “tossup” seats, those in which the projection models are in disagreement, are heavily concentrated in and around St. John’s. These include the newly-vacated Virginia Waters, where a recent IVR poll showed a close contest between the Liberals and PCs as the by-election campaign looms.

Poll projections in the latter half of 2013 also suggested a notionally close or “tossup” race in Carbonear–Harbour Grace, which in a real-world by-election test was carried by the Liberal candidate.

About that corner being turned

Here’s the notional district-by-district map* based on today’s CRA vote-intent figures. For the current opposition parties, dark colours indicate holds and pale colours are pickups. For the incumbent outgoing PCs, dark blue is a hold, while paler blue is a hold by less than a notional 10% margin of victory. Light grey indicates a district where the two projection models are in disagreement about the notional winner. The projection models do not take into account changes in affiliation of incumbent MHAs, including the impact of the NDP Big Snit and the Osborg migration from the blue to red teams. (Click to enlarge.)

The Liberal caucus would notionally jump to at least 29 members, with another nine districts too close to call — and all of those, potentially in the Liberal column — for a total of up to 38 seats. Between one and seven districts in St. John's and the suburbs are potential Liberal pickups. In fact, most of the “too close to call” districts are on the northeast Avalon. In Labrador, and off the Avalon, the Liberal party would be expected to sweep nearly every seat. The only notional PC hold, Humber East, is held by incumbent Tom Marshall, who has already made it clear that this is his last term in office.

Without bearing in mind the impact of the Big Snit, the NDP could retain a caucus of five members, including Snit members. The decline in the NDP support figures, while large compared to their recent high polling numbers, is not nearly as large when compared to their 2011 actual result. A notinal loss in The Straits–White Bay North would be offset by a gain in Burin–Placentia West. (Where is that court case, anyhow?)

The more important figure bearing on the NDP fortune is the ongoing suffering of the incumbent outgoing PCs, who have retained barely half their 2011 popular support. The PCs would notionally hold from six to ten seats, depending on how the “too close” races split. And one of those notionally “too close” districts, Carbonear–Harbour Grace, just went Liberal in a real-world by-election test, with an outright majority of the vote and a margin of victory of just over eight percent.

* To be taken with a grain of salt – the overall seat totals in swing models are more accurate than district-by-district projects, as the errors in the latter tend to cancel one another out.

Third party, redux, redux

In the 2011 provincial general election, there were 268 regular voting-day polling divisions, in ten different electoral districts, which were contained wholly within the city of St. John’s. (A handful of polls which straddled the border with a neighbouring suburban municipality are disregarded here.)

In those 268 polls, Stjohnsians cast a collective 37,750 valid ballots.

Of those 37,750 votes, the Tories took 48%, the NDP 45%, and the Liberals 7%. The uncomfortably tight margin, in what is traditionally the Tory chateau-fort, led to the defeat of several incumbent PC MHAs, the conversion of three districts from the PC to the NDP column, close races in a few other metro-area districts, and no shortage of morning-after hand-wringing inside Tory circles.

Fast-forward not quite two years to the present day.

In the context of the current municipal elections, VOCM and Abacus Data have put out a poll of St. John’s residents, examining the public mood, the issues, and the top-line horse-race numbers. The poll was carried out over several days in late August. VOCM has helpfully published its reports on its website, with the horse-race numbers, released earlier today, available here.

The VOCM-Abacus Data poll is cross-tabulated on a number of interesting demographic and other factors, including, happily enough, current provincial voter intention.

For argument’s and this blog posting’s sake, let’s take the Abacus provincial political numbers at face value.

Of the VOCM-Abacus sample, the largest share of Stjohnsites, 33%, say they are undecided in their provincial voter preference. This is a bit higher than, but roughly in line with, the recent province-wide undecided vote as reported by CRA in its quarterly polls.*

Of decided voters, 42% support the provincial NDP, 33% the Liberals, and 23% the Progressive Conservatives. **

As compared to the 2011 actual results in the city, the NDP support is, within the margin of error, unchanged. St. John’s is the new chateau-fort of the Dippers.

The provincial Liberals, having been shut out of the city, and even its suburbs, in three consecutive general elections, now enjoy nearly quintuple the support they saw in the last general election. Their gain is entirely at the expense of the Progressive Conservatives.

And of the Tories, once the undisputed rulers of the St. John’s roost and nine of the ten electoral districts which, in whole or in part, are made up of Townie voters?

Their popular support in the capital city, their redoubt in even the worst of electoral cycles, has been halved in less than 24 months. The PC Party, per the CRA and Abacus polls released today, are not only the third party province-wide, they are the third party in the capital city that they once owned.

The implications of these numbers are astounding: In a notional election where the popular vote was reflected in the Abacus numbers, the incumbent PCs would be entirely shut out of the city of St. John’s. That has never happened in provincial electoral history.

The Liberals would make a modest beach-head of one or two seats in Town for the first time since 1999 – and perhaps three, depending on the impact of the Osborne Decision.

The NDP would gain, or hold, the rest.



* Percentages are calculated here using Abacus' own weighted data, but the unweighted values yield the same outcome to within a very small variance of 2% or less.
** A handful (2%) said they would vote for “Other”. Tom Osborne, former PC and Independent MHA, announced that he was joining the Liberal caucus half-way through the Abacus fieldwork.

[Reformatted and lightly edited since initial posting.]

Uncontrolled flight into terrain

The long-term trendline of the voter-intent figures in Newfoundland and Labrador, per Corporate Research Associates' quarterly (and occasional extraordinary) poll reports.

So, yeah, when does floor-crossing season start again?

Blue funk

When Corporate Research Associates were last heard from in March, the notional result of their vote-intent figures would have been a seriously hobbled PC minority government.

Three months later, and the picture has continued to evolve along the recent trend-lines… only more so. On today’s CRA numbers, using reliable swing models to project a province-wide district-by-district result, either of the opposition parties would be poised to form a minority government of between 19 and 21 seats, with a slight statistical edge to the NDP.

The incumbent PCs would be humiliated into a distant third-place showing of seven to ten seats – Virginia Waters not being among them.

The humiliation would be tempered only by the possibility that, unless the NDP and Liberals formed a working coalition government to begin the hard work of dedannification, the PCs might be called upon to hold the balance of power in a minority legislature.

The February CRA figures, reported in early March, would have notionally resulted in 15 to 17 Tory seats changing hands, mostly to the NDP, and mostly in Labrador and the metro St. John’s area.

The May figures, reported today, would add another 10 to 13 districts to the notional PC bleed, and, with their impressive one-quarter surge, most of the new losses would be to the Liberals in coastal Newfoundland and the Trans-Canada Highway shire towns. Darin King, Susan Sullivan, Ray Hunter, Vaughn Granter, Wade Verge, Tony Cornect, Glenn Littlejohn, Derrick Dalley, Charlene Johnson and Ross Wiseman would be among the new notional casualties of a general election where the popular vote was identical to today’s poll release. Terry French, Keith Hutchings and Paul Davis would also be expected to be in tight races, too close to call.

Interestingly, the incumbent Tories are bleeding support not only to both the opposition parties, but, in a rapidly-developing worst-case scenario for the PCs, are bleeding to the different parties in geographically distinct areas of the province. The NDP is best placed to take advantage of the PC implosion in the northeast Avalon, portions of eastern Newfoundland, and urban Labrador. The Liberals are position to pick the Tory carcass in much of rural Newfoundland. Only a handful of districts, including The Straits—White Bay North (here too close to call), would see head-to-head or three-way races in which both the Liberals and NDP are in notional competition.

Worse for the incumbents, at 27% – barely over a quarter of the decided vote – not only would the PC party be crushed at the polls, most of their rump caucus would notionally squeak in with a margin of victory of less than 10%.

Here’s the notional district-by-district map.* For the opposition parties, dark colours indicate holds and pale colours are pickups. For the incumbent PCs, dark blue is a hold, while paler blue is a hold by less than a notional 10% margin of victory. Light grey indicates a district where the projection models are in disagreement about the notional winner.

* To be taken with a grain of salt – the overall seat totals in swing models are more accurate than district-by-district projects, as the errors in the latter tend to cancel one another out.

They don't govern by polls

We are showing 80 per cent in the polls, the highest approval rating that any government has seen and any Premier has seen since 1949. Certainly that reflects on the leadership and it certainly reflects on the great programs that this particular government has brought in. So, we have everything to cheerlead.

Kevin O’Brien, March 23, 2009

Vulnerability - when you speak about being vulnerable, I remind members of this House and the member opposite particularly, that if I were the leader of a party who was only at 10 per cent in the polls, I, myself, might feel extremely vulnerable. What amazes me, Mr. Speaker, what truly amazes me - because I believe that the Leader of the Opposition is doing a half decent job. She has held herself well in this House and she has spoken eloquently in public on many occasions, and what is really surprising me is that her numbers in polls, since 2007, have not yet been able to surpass the former defeated Leader of the Opposition. Her predecessor, Mr. Reid, had reached some 12 per cent at one point in the polls and she has never been able to reach that level. That surprises me, I say, Mr. Speaker. I am truly surprised because I would have thought that the people of Newfoundland and Labrador would recognize that the current Leader of the Opposition is probably doing a much better job than the former Leader of the Opposition, but clearly, the people of Newfoundland and Labrador disagree with me because they do not think that she is doing such a great job.

Ross Wiseman, December 1, 2009

Since we formed government in 2003, Mr. Chair, just look at what the people of Newfoundland and Labrador have been saying. They have said it in an election in 2003; they have said it in an election in 2007; they have said it in by-elections since that time, and they say it in public opinion polls. When asked: Who do you want to be the leader of the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador? Who do they say? Our current Premier. When you ask them: What party do you want representing you in the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador? What is it they say? They say the Progressive Conservative Party.

Mr. Chair, the people of Newfoundland and Labrador, the members of this House just should not take my word for that, just look at what elections have said, just look at what opinion polls have said. They have clearly endorsed the policy decisions of this government. They have clearly endorsed the sound leadership being provided by our Premier. They clearly endorsed the fiscal platform of this government, because I say, Mr. Chair, it is sound, prudent fiscal management.

Ross Wiseman, March 23, 2010

A Premier, rather than seeing a difficulty in every opportunity, we have a leader who sees an opportunity in every difficulty. In his address to the Province in January 2004, this is what he said, "Though the obstacles are great, I know that the opportunities are even greater." Now you wonder why we are so strong in the polls; there is the answer.

Kevin Pollard, March 25, 2010

We have weathered the storm well and we have one of the strongest economies in North America as a result of decisions that this government has made, and I have no doubt that the growth will continue, Mr. Speaker. So it is no surprise that recent polls show significant support and satisfaction with this government. Why wouldn't people be confident and pleased?

Steve Kent, April 29, 2010

Mr. Speaker, the strong results of this by-election speak volumes to the great job this government is doing in leading and governing Newfoundland and Labrador, and to the confidence that residents have in the leadership of Premier Williams.
This confidence has also been evident in in-depth research polls, such as those conducted by Corporate Research Associates, and we heard these during the campaign. Their latest poll suggested that 93 per cent of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are satisfied with the job this government is doing today.

Paul Davis, May 4, 2010

I would say that if anyone knows about nonsense it should be that person over there, and there is no excuse for the way she gets on. We can see why she is at 6 per cent in the polls. I can only hope that she is around for the next election, so good luck to the Liberals when you elect your leader.

Jerome Kennedy, May 5, 2010

Certainly, next year will show as well that we will have leadership, regardless – and, regardless of an election year, we will invest wisely. That is exactly what we do: we invest wisely, we get a bang for our dollar, we get maximum value for our dollar, and that is what it is all about, before we spend. That is what this government is known for. That is why we run in the polls in regard to what we see, in regard to the popularity of the Premier, the popularity of this party as the governing party of Newfoundland and Labrador. That is exactly what we do.

Kevin O’Brien, May 17, 2010

We do not govern by polls, but it is always nice when you hear that people are endorsing the work that is being done by the government on their behalf.

Kathy Dunderdale, November 21, 2012

Consultation, Mr. Speaker; we talked about consultation. I have to raise this because it is so funny. The member says there has been no consultation on Muskrat Falls relative to how people feel about this project. By the way, I understand through all the polls that more than 70 per cent of the people in the Province support the project.

Darin King, November 28, 2012

I am hoping her positivity is going to spread like the flu over on that side because I think we need more people on board with this. We look at the polls and I hear almost a gasp of air come out of the Opposition's lungs when we see polls come out that say Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are overwhelmingly in support of this project, when we see the studies come out one after another saying this is the least-cost option, when we see studies coming out saying this is the most environmentally sound option we can do.

Sandy Collins, December 3, 2012

What do the people of this Province think? Mr. Speaker, if we just examine the latest polls we can feel confident that the people of this Province are behind us in moving this project forward. On a daily basis, they keep telling us: Do it, it needs to be done, move it forward. You have done all your homework, you have done a great job on it, we are convinced, let's make it work. Mr. Speaker, we do not govern by polls. We want to know what the people really think.

David Brazil, December 3, 2012

If you're happy and you know it (II)

Another day, another poll. This time, it’s one of Angus Reid’s periodic look-sees at how the Premiers are faring.


It probably won’t get the Ministry of Twitter treatment.

It’s an interesting little exercise to take the Angus Reid figures on Approve/Disapprove of the premier’s performance, and mash them up with CRA’s satisfaction-with-government score and Environics’ right-track/wrong-track measure.

Bearing in mind the different questions and pollster methodologies, here is the long-term trend of net satisfied/approve/right-track figures. That is, the percentage of respondents who are happy with the government/premier of the day, minus those who are not. (If you are the subject of the poll, you like to be well into the positive territory.)

CRA satisfaction-with-government figures are in saturated colours; Angus Reid Approve/Disapprove and Environics “track” results are in pale ones. (Click to enlarge)

And while the Premier’s personal performance seems to be weighing more heavily than CRA’s satisfaction-with-government question, the trend line for all polls is by now unmistakable. The incumbent PC government and Premier are now arriving into the same dangerous public-opinion territory that the Grimes government was in between 2001 and 2003.

[N.B.: Chart methodology differs slightly from the July iteration of the same them, in that this chart shows the net score among decided respondents only. Undecided/don’t know responses are excluded from the calculation. Also, note that the horizontal axis is variable in time-scale.]

Medical miracle

Excellent news! Our Dear Back is doing so much better in August than it was in July.

Political science

From No. 21's Member's Statement on the 16th:

MR. HUTCHINGS: Mr. Speaker, I rise in the hon. House today to recognize and congratulate Shawn Kavanagh of Calvert, a student at Memorial University. Shawn is currently in his fourth year of an honours degree in political science investigating the effect that public opinion polling has on public policy, with a minor in history. He has also started his honour’s thesis in political science.

That would be a right interesting piece of research, especially in 21st-century Dannystan.

Polls were for dogs (X)

Real Leadership is not governing by polls but it is listening and responding to all Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.

- The Word of Our Dan, 2000

MR. WISEMAN: In a most recent poll - I will find it here now in a second, Mr. Speaker. Most recent poll said that - they are all alike, aren’t they? I have some data here going back to 2006, I can pick any time, any time since 2006 - in fact I do not have it before me, but my memory serves me that prior to 2006, as a matter of fact since we have been elected in 2003 any time that the people of Newfoundland and Labrador have been asked about their level of satisfaction with our government it has always been eighty-seven, seventy-eight, ninety, eighty-four, eighty-two, eighty-three, consistently, Mr. Speaker, consistently. When someone says who do they want to be - when the people of Newfoundland and Labrador have been asked: Who do you want to be the Premier of the Province? Who do you prefer to have as the Premier, the current Premier or one of the leaders of the opposing parties? Do you know what they said? In 80-odd per cent of the time, every single time since 2003, they have said the current Premier, Premier Williams is the person that they want as the Premier of Newfoundland and Labrador, I say, Mr. Speaker.

Polls were for dogs (IX)

Real Leadership is not governing by polls but it is listening and responding to all Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.

- The Word of Our Dan, 2000

MR. KENT: Mr. Speaker, our Province was well equipped to deal with this recession. We have weathered the storm well and we have one of the strongest economies in North America as a result of decisions that this government has made, and I have no doubt that the growth will continue, Mr. Speaker. So it is no surprise that recent polls show significant support and satisfaction with this government.

Polls were for dogs (VIII)

Real Leadership is not governing by polls but it is listening and responding to all Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.

- The Word of Our Dan, 2000

MR. HARDING: - 700 votes roughly to the two Opposition parties combined. I think that was one of the main factors. That is one of the main reasons as well, Mr. Chair, why our party was showing in the last poll that was taken the satisfactory rate for our government is around 93 per cent.

[...]

MR. POLLARD: A Premier, rather than seeing a difficulty in every opportunity, we have a leader who sees an opportunity in every difficulty. In his address to the Province in January 2004, this is what he said, "Though the obstacles are great, I know that the opportunities are even greater." Now you wonder why we are so strong in the polls; there is the answer.

SOME HON. MEMBERS: Hear, hear!

MR. POLLARD: Mr. Chair, no mistake about it. It is all about leadership. Every school, every town, every organization, every community, every government, every agency, every hockey team needs a strong, bold, determined leader – and we have that in Premier Williams.

Polls were for dogs (VII)

Real Leadership is not governing by polls but it is listening and responding to all Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.

- The Word of Our Dan, 2000

MR. WISEMAN: Mr. Chair, I know my time is running out. I just wanted to - before I wrap up I want to take the opportunity to congratulate the newly elected Member for Topsail. Elected with a resounding majority, I say, Mr. Chair. A vote of confidence in him as an individual and what he brings to that particular post that he has and what he will deliver to his constituents, but I say, Mr. Chair, he is a part of a team. He is a part of a team that has been embraced by Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. If you consider what has been happening in the last five or six years since we formed government in 2003. Since we formed government in 2003, Mr. Chair, just look at what the people of Newfoundland and Labrador have been saying. They have said it in an election in 2003; they have said it in an election in 2007; they have said it in by-elections since that time, and they say it in public opinion polls. When asked: Who do you want to be the leader of the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador? Who do they say? Our current Premier. When you ask them: What party do you want representing you in the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador? What is it they say? They say the Progressive Conservative Party.

[...]

Mr. Chair, the people of Newfoundland and Labrador, the members of this House just should not take my word for that, just look at what elections have said, just look at what opinion polls have said. They have clearly endorsed the policy decisions of this government. They have clearly endorsed the sound leadership being provided by our Premier. They clearly endorsed the fiscal platform of this government, because I say, Mr. Chair, it is sound, prudent fiscal management. We have been focused on that since 2003, and we will continue to be focused on good fiscal policy that ensures that we develop the resources of Newfoundland and Labrador so that Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are the principle benefactors of that.

Polls were for dogs (VI)

Real Leadership is not governing by polls but it is listening and responding to all Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.

- The Word of Our Dan, 2000

MR. LODER: Globally, the economic downturn has produced many challenges, and Newfoundland and Labrador has certainly not been immune to its impact. As a result of this government’s prudent fiscal management, however, we have gotten through it relatively well compared to some other provinces. This sound approach is very much appreciated and endorsed by Newfoundlanders and Labradorians, as demonstrated by the people’s overwhelming approval rating of this government and our Premier in independent public opinion polls, and we can proudly boast that Newfoundland and Labrador has the most popular Premier in this country today.

Polls were for dogs (V)

Real Leadership is not governing by polls but it is listening and responding to all Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.

- The Word of Our Dan, 2000

MR. SKINNER: Where did those policies come from? They came from the strategies that the member opposite talks about. Where did those strategies come from? They came from talks with the people in the Province. They came from Shawn Skinner, the Member for St. John’s Centre, going out and speaking to small business people in his district and speaking to community based groups and speaking to homeowners and speaking to young men and women, students, and moms and dads, in my district, making sure that the grassroots were being listened to and heard and bringing that back to the table of caucus and bringing that back to the table of Cabinet. I am not the only one doing that. I would suggest every member in this House is doing it – not just the members on government side, but every member in the House is doing this. It shows because the indicators show we are doing well, and it shows because those polls that nobody likes to talk about when they are not favourable to themselves, but those polls that people put out, those independent, arbitrary outside agencies – they are not government polls – say that we are a popular government, and we are popular because of the policies we have. I would like to think it is because we are nice people too, and I am sure some people think we are, but it is our performance that is getting those poll numbers, Mr. Speaker. It is not the individuals, although in some cases we have some impact on that. We certainly have some role in that, no doubt, but it is the performance of government. If people were not happy with the performance of government, you would not see the kinds of poll numbers that you are seeing for this government. So people are happy with how we are doing because we are listening to them, we are taking their advice, we are listening to the grassroots, putting it into the strategies that we have, and those strategies are impacting the policies of this government.

Polls were for dogs (IV)

Real Leadership is not governing by polls but it is listening and responding to all Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.

- The Word of Our Dan, 2000

MR. HICKEY: It is indeed an honour to stand in the hon. House here today and to have a few minutes to speak regarding Budget 2010. It is also an honour, Mr. Speaker, to stand in my place representing the people of the great District of Lake Melville that includes the great Towns of North West River, Sheshatshiu, Happy Valley-Goose Bay, Mud Lake and Churchill Falls.

Mr. Speaker, we have come a long ways, this government, since 2003. We came into power at a time in which the people of this Province wanted change. I say, Mr. Speaker, according to the polls, I believe that that people of the Province are pleased with the work that our good Premier is doing, the Cabinet and, indeed, members of our caucus throughout the Province of Newfoundland and Labrador.

Polls were for dogs (III)

Real Leadership is not governing by polls but it is listening and responding to all Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.

- The Word of Our Dan, 2000

MR. DAVIS: As well, Mr. Speaker, the strong results of this by-election speak volumes to the great job this government is doing in leading and governing Newfoundland and Labrador, and to the confidence that residents have in the leadership of Premier Williams.

This confidence has also been evident in in-depth research polls, such as those conducted by Corporate Research Associates, and we heard these during the campaign. Their latest poll suggested that 93 per cent of Newfoundlanders and Labradorians are satisfied with the job this government is doing today.

Polls were for dogs (II)

Real Leadership is not governing by polls but it is listening and responding to all Newfoundlanders and Labradorians.

- The Word of Our Dan, 2000

MR. KENNEDY: Yes, Mr. Speaker, I would say that if anyone knows about nonsense it should be that person over there, and there is no excuse for the way she gets on. We can see why she is at 6 per cent in the polls. I can only hope that she is around for the next election, so good luck to the Liberals when you elect your leader.

Polls were for dogs

On December 5, 2000, then private citizen Danny Williams launched what would become the single bid for the leadership of the opposition Progressive Conservative Party.

Among other things, he told his faithful followers:

Real Leadership is not governing by polls but it is listening and responding to all Newfoundlanders and Labradorians. Real Leadership is making sure that your priorities will be my priorities and I'll make you one promise we are going to have some fun while we are at it.

Just ten years ago. It seems like a lifetime.

Today in the Bow-Wow Parliament, the same man spewed the same talking point that his band of kool-aid drinkers spew, day in, day out, on the internets and in the talk-radio gutter; indeed, that his caucus of zombies spew, day in, day out, in the legislative chamber itself (and in the talk-radio gutter):

PREMIER WILLIAMS: Mr. Speaker, 93 per cent is a lot of confidence. That is the kind of confidence I think people have in this government as a result of our performance so far.

From not governing by polls, to being utterly consumed by them.

It's enough to make a body wonder: is he still having fun?