"We can't allow things that are inaccurate to stand." — The Word of Our Dan, February 19, 2008.

Monday, September 10, 2012

If you're happy and you know it (II)

Another day, another poll. This time, it’s one of Angus Reid’s periodic look-sees at how the Premiers are faring.

It probably won’t get the Ministry of Twitter treatment.

It’s an interesting little exercise to take the Angus Reid figures on Approve/Disapprove of the premier’s performance, and mash them up with CRA’s satisfaction-with-government score and Environics’ right-track/wrong-track measure.

Bearing in mind the different questions and pollster methodologies, here is the long-term trend of net satisfied/approve/right-track figures. That is, the percentage of respondents who are happy with the government/premier of the day, minus those who are not. (If you are the subject of the poll, you like to be well into the positive territory.)

CRA satisfaction-with-government figures are in saturated colours; Angus Reid Approve/Disapprove and Environics “track” results are in pale ones. (Click to enlarge)

And while the Premier’s personal performance seems to be weighing more heavily than CRA’s satisfaction-with-government question, the trend line for all polls is by now unmistakable. The incumbent PC government and Premier are now arriving into the same dangerous public-opinion territory that the Grimes government was in between 2001 and 2003.

[N.B.: Chart methodology differs slightly from the July iteration of the same them, in that this chart shows the net score among decided respondents only. Undecided/don’t know responses are excluded from the calculation. Also, note that the horizontal axis is variable in time-scale.]

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