From the Memory Hole, XI

The ever-astute Bill Thomas notes on the twitters:

Bill ‏@BillThomas_NL

Funny I can't seem to find a copy of either of these reports anywhere. They used to be on MF web @edhollett http://www.releases.gov.nl.ca/releases/2012/nr/1101n01.htm … #nlpoli

2:28 PM - 28 Jun 2016

At some point in recent history, The Most Open And Accountable Government Ever (TMOAAGE), a Nalcor subsidiary, saw to it to bit-bucket the entire contents of the former powerinourhands.ca rah-rah website, including the two reports referred to in the tweeted link. These were an in-house one by the Department of Natural Resources entitled "Labrador mining and power: how much and where from?", and a report by Our Dear Economist, commissioned for the same department, entitled "Economic Impact Analysis of Iron Ore Mining Industry in Labrador 2011-31".

Here's what you get when you follow a fossilized link to that formerly-active content:

Obviously, TMOAAGE, the government which produced the information-improving Bill 29, and gave Steve Kent the job of opening all of the government, must have removed these files from the internets by mistake.

So here they are, in case you missed them the first time around.

Economic Analysis

Labrador Mining

Private to John Riche

Cumulative number of times Wade Locke's name has been invoked in the House of Assembly, by caucus.

Rolling in dough

Our Dear Economist has crunched the numbers on Hebron, as Barb Sweet reports for The Telegram:

Although $20 billion is the expected spinoff, variables including the price of oil and the value of the Canadian dollar against the U.S., put the Hebron project’s potential taxes and royalties to the province at a range of $11 billion to $34 billion over its lifespan, depending on the worst and best case scenarios.

Between 2004 and 2010, the "Conservative" government of Danny Williams increased provincial program expenditures by a nudge under $2.7-billion.

Without taking into account inflation, the Hebron payoff can be re-expressed thusly:

Although 7.4 years worth of Williams Government program spending increases is the expected spinoff, variables including the price of oil and the value of the Canadian dollar against the U.S., put the Hebron project’s potential taxes and royalties to the province at a range of 4.1 to 12.6 years worth of Williams Government program spending increases over its lifespan, depending on the worst and best case scenarios.

Trendspotting

Our Dear Economist spots yet another trend:

St. John's Running Low on Office Space: Economist

Economist Wade Locke says St. John's is running out of office space. Locke delivered an economic perspective on the province to the Newfoundland and Labrador Construction Association at their convention in St. John's last week. Locke says in terms of housing prices they will continue to climb and housing starts will also continue to go up, calling it an exciting time for the construction industry. However, when it comes to office space for business in the city, he says it should cause some concerns. Locke says he's no going to enter the debate on the purposed Fortis Property, but says something has to be done or it could cause problems for future business.

Perhaps the office-space shortage is being caused by all the front-end engineering and environmental work for that aluminum smelter...

Nothing but bluebirds

More from the recent-memory hole. From a Terry Roberts report in the Telegram of November 22, 2008, quoting MUN economist Wade:

Locke stressed, however, that it's not all doom and gloom.

In historical terms, commodity prices are still strong, he explained, and there are positive signs everywhere.

He singled out the confidence shown by the Iron Ore Company of Canada in Labrador West, where a major expansion is planned.

"That should tell you everything you need to know. That company believes the future is bright for them and they're increasing their capacity now to take advantage of an improving situation in the future," he said.

The power of positive thinking

The perennial optimist is feeling economistic:

Economist Calls for Prosperity Plan
June 10, 2009

Memorial University economist, Dr. Wade Locke, says he'd like to see the province put a prosperity plan in place. Locke says the province has fared well during the economic recession and upcoming projects will bring the province to a new level of prosperity.

It would — scratch that, it will — be interesting to see which parts of the province have “fared well” during the economic recession. Economic recessions, after all, are known for being happy times.

As the treasonous BondPapers notes, year over year, the percentage change in the employment figure is staggering.

Adjusted for seasonality, the “employment force” — the overall number of people working, whether full-time or part-time — has contracted by over 5% in the past year. To put that into historical perspective, this graph shows the same data as in the BondPapers posting… only projected back in time for as long as StatsCan has comparable data on the subject, back to 1977:

The year-over-year decline of 5.3% observed in Newfoundland and Labrador from May to May is on par with the declines observed during the bruising North American and international recessions of 1981 and 1991, and with the more localized mid-1990s job losses that may be related to the end of major onshore Hibernia work and the end of the NCARP/TAGS program.

This second graph “zooms in” on more recent trends. It is the same data as in the above graph, only for this decade only. Periods in which the employment picture was better than the same month one year before are shown as green peaks. Periods in which it is worse are red valleys.

This corner, for one, would hate to see what these figures would look like, had the province not fared so well during the current recession.

Economist predicts stuff

November 7, 2008: Economist predicts megaproject for Labrador

Locke wouldn't rule out plans for a possible aluminum smelter. Premier Danny Williams flew to Brazil a year ago this month to press Inco's parent company into considering building an aluminum smelter in Labrador. An aluminum smelter would need huge amounts of cheap power to be competitive.

Meanwhile, non-economist predicts that economist will continue to predict stuff.