"We can't allow things that are inaccurate to stand." — The Word of Our Dan, February 19, 2008.

Friday, July 11, 2008

Demo/graphics (II)(b)

Back in December, the Globe and — spit — Mail gave credence to the nonsencial notion of something called the "Danny Williams effect".

As noted previously, if the "Danny Williams effect" has anything to do with housing starts or migration patterns, when those patterns reflect well on Danny Williams, then surely the same effect must also be at work when the trends aren't quite so positive.

And, on the interprovincial outmigration figure, how do those trends reflect on the Danny Williams Effect? Well, even with the recent uptick of net interprovincial in-migration... not very well.

As noted before, out-migration, both gross and net, had been accelerating during the first four years of the Williams era, after having slowed down, and briefly reversed, earlier in the decade. In the second half of 2007, net in-migration again appeared, and has been sustained now for three quarters.

Until the detailed figures are released, it's difficult to say with certainty which regions of the province account for the recent uptick. However, data is available which demonstrate the regional impact of the downtick. This map shows the four-year total estimated net outmigration — the number of people moving into the province minus the number leaving, by Census Division and the St. John's CMA (insert same old caveat here), from July 2003 to June 2007. The widths of the arrows are roughly proportionate to the figures:

Once more, it is worth bearing in mind that the absolute out-migration numbers do not take into account the differing relative impact of the population loss. All things being equal, St. John's, with over a third of the population, should account for the largest chunk of the outmigration. So this map shows the same 2003-2007 data as above, only this time as a percentage of the 2006 census population. Again, the arrows are proportional:

Other than the Corner Brook-Humber Valley region, and the rural and urban Avalon, the entire province, from 2003 to 2007, was losing population to other provinces at a rate of roughly one percent per annum. That includes Labrador, home of Voisey's Bay and the incipient iron ore mining resurgence.

And that's without considering the impacts of population movements within the province, or of natural population decline.

Are these trends also part of the "Danny Williams effect"?

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