Reading the Entrails (2008) (I)
Baie Verte—Springdale 55.5%
Cape St. Francis 70.7%
Baie Verte—Springdale 43.4%
Cape St. Francis 43.2%
Number of votes:
2007 Lib PC NDP
Baie Verte—Springdale 798 3388 301
Cape St. Francis 739 4983 680
Baie Verte—Springdale 1245 1979 316
Cape St. Francis 317 2865 972
Baie Verte—Springdale 447 -1409 15
Cape St. Francis -422 -2118 292
Vote share (%)
2007 Lib PC NDPNotes:
Baie Verte—Springdale 17.8% 75.5% 6.7%
Cape St. Francis 11.5% 77.8% 10.6%
Baie Verte—Springdale 35.2% 55.9% 8.9%
Cape St. Francis 7.6% 69.0% 23.4%
Baie Verte—Springdale 17.4% -19.6% 2.2%
Cape St. Francis -3.9% -8.9% 12.8%
- The turnout decline between the general and by-election for the two districts was worse than for the average of the other provincial by-elections in the past decade.
- The Amazing Vanishing Tory Voter makes another appearance. Or non-appearance. Whatever. 3500 fewer people voted PC in the two districts than just ten months ago. The NDP vote was up, numerically, in both districts; the Liberal vote was mixed.
- The governing Tories are, on these numbers, roughly back to where they were in the big-but-not-landslide 2003 election. The combined opposition, if the same vote swing were seen across the province in a general election, would see the NDP regain Labrador West, and the Liberals re-take former strongholds in Labrador, on the Northern Peninsula, and on the South and Northeast coasts.
- The NDP has yet to prove to be Danny's "real opposition", as he likes to call them, until they start, y'know, opposing him. However, taking nearly a quarter of the vote in an exurban St. John's seat should give a few Tories in the more-reliably Dipper city centre some moments of reflection.