Reading the Entrails (2008) (I)

Voter Turnout

2007 
Baie Verte—Springdale   55.5%
Cape St. Francis        70.7%

2008 
Baie Verte—Springdale   43.4%
Cape St. Francis        43.2%

Number of votes:

2007                    Lib     PC      NDP
Baie Verte—Springdale   798     3388    301
Cape St. Francis        739     4983    680

2008   
Baie Verte—Springdale  1245     1979    316
Cape St. Francis        317     2865    972

Change   
Baie Verte—Springdale   447    -1409     15
Cape St. Francis       -422    -2118    292

Vote share (%)

2007                    Lib     PC      NDP
Baie Verte—Springdale   17.8%   75.5%    6.7%
Cape St. Francis        11.5%   77.8%   10.6%

2008
Baie Verte—Springdale   35.2%   55.9%    8.9%
Cape St. Francis         7.6%   69.0%   23.4%

Change   
Baie Verte—Springdale   17.4%  -19.6%    2.2%
Cape St. Francis        -3.9%   -8.9%   12.8%

Notes:

• The turnout decline between the general and by-election for the two districts was worse than for the average of the other provincial by-elections in the past decade.
• The Amazing Vanishing Tory Voter makes another appearance. Or non-appearance. Whatever. 3500 fewer people voted PC in the two districts than just ten months ago. The NDP vote was up, numerically, in both districts; the Liberal vote was mixed.
• The governing Tories are, on these numbers, roughly back to where they were in the big-but-not-landslide 2003 election. The combined opposition, if the same vote swing were seen across the province in a general election, would see the NDP regain Labrador West, and the Liberals re-take former strongholds in Labrador, on the Northern Peninsula, and on the South and Northeast coasts.
• The NDP has yet to prove to be Danny's "real opposition", as he likes to call them, until they start, y'know, opposing him. However, taking nearly a quarter of the vote in an exurban St. John's seat should give a few Tories in the more-reliably Dipper city centre some moments of reflection.