Bringing the past up to date (II)

Day by day and almost minute by minute the past was brought up to date. In this way every prediction made by the Party could be shown by documentary evidence to have been correct, nor was any item of news, or any expression of opinion, which conflicted with the needs of the moment, ever allowed to remain on record. All history was a palimpsest, scraped clean and reinscribed exactly as often as was necessary.

— George Orwell, 1984

In May of last year, Himself made a big show — well, another one — about how Very Bad them Quebecers are:

Unofficial English Translation of the Régie de l’énergie’s Decision Available

The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador today released an unofficial English translation of the Régie de l’énergie’s decision, as well as a summary of the document, on complaints filed by Nalcor Energy against Hydro-Quebec Transénergie. The unofficial English translation is being provided by the Provincial Government as the official decision is available in French only from the Régie de l’énergie.

...

This is an unofficial translation and was completed under the supervision of legal counsel to Nalcor Energy. It does not represent an official translation and the Provincial Government is not responsible for any translation errors. The document, as well as the summary, can be viewed at www.nr.gov.nl.ca/nr/.

Go ahead.

Click on the link.

Try and find the translation, which was a very good one, prepared at no insignificant public expense, by Nalcor.

Use the search bar, helpfully provided at the top right-hand corner of the Natural Resources web page, if you have to.

Funny gal

Premier Dunderdale makes a funny, telling the Telegram, in respect of the provincial government's embassy to Canada:

“The office serves a great purpose when it’s functioning the way that it should,” she told a Telegram editorial board Wednesday. “And it’s important to me that we maintain that.”

...

“You need someone who is on the ground, who’s talking to people, who has relationships with people within departments, who are on the ground, who know what the scuttlebutt is, knows who’s coming, who’s going, who’s talking to who. Someone who is able to facilitate meetings, general intelligence gathering on the ground,” she said.

So important, and so needed is the office, that as of today it has been vacant for 515 days since the last office-holder's departure was made known to the public.

By way of comparison, the Rowe-Fitzgerald interregnum was a mere 447 days. (Rowe himself was on the job for just 198 days).

The Ottawa embassy has been unoccupied by an ambassador for more than 2.5 full years since it was initially staffed in 2004.

Nice Berg (II)

Nice berg

Nice work

OK, now this is interesting.

Statistics Canada's data on public sector employment very helpfully provides figures on total employment, and total earnings, for a number of classes of public-sector employees.

Taking the total wages, and dividing by the total number of employees, gives you a rough picture of the wage cost per employee. This is not to be confused with the average annual wage of the employees, because Statscan only provides figures on total employment, without distinguishing full-time, part-time, and seasonal or temporary employees. Caveat lector.

Still, with that caveat in mind, let's look at public sector earnings per employee in Newfoundland and Labrador, over the past decade, distinguishing the several classes of public sector workers. These are federal and provincial public servants; workers in the public health-care and post-secondary education systems; employees of municipal governments and school boards, and employees of federal and provincial “business enterprises”, which roughly equals crown corporations.

Here's the graph. (n.b., axes do not cross at zero.)

Notice anything?

Anything stick out?

Between the first quarter of 2002 and the end of 2007, the public-sector wages/employee figure for most classes of public-sector workers rose by about 3% to 4% per annum. This is visible in the graph by the roughly similar slopes of most of the lines. The outliers are for PSE, municipal, and provincial “enterprise” employees.

Between the first quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2010, the average increase was again about 3% to 4% for most classes, with somewhat more generous rates of increase for federal and provincial public servants, and somewhat stingier ones in PSE and school boards.

But one class of the public sector work force stands out, quite remarkably, in the post-2007 period.

Statscan doesn't break it down, but extraneous data suggest that most employees in the provincial enterprises work for one of three large crown corporations.

All reasonable attempts to explain this trend are welcome.

[Data source: Statistics Canada table 183-0002. Figures used in the graph are trailing four-quarter sum of quarterly total earnings, divided by the four-quarter trailing average employment (seasonally unadjusted) in persons.]

Exit Hickey

And so John Hickey rides off into the sunset, having, along with Danny Williams, achieved everything he ever wanted on the Lower Churchill file when he embarked on his provincial political career a decade ago.

Well done, true and faithful servant of The People. Well done!

Planning to plan

VOCM reports:

Abundance of Energy Resources in NL: Skinner

The Minister of Natural Resources is calling Newfoundland and Labrador an "energy warehouse." Shawn Skinner made the statement in his address this morning at the NOIA Conference in St. John's. Skinner says we have a lot of energy resources in the province, and we need a plan to handle them.

Yes, indeed.

A plan. A plan for handling energy resources. One might call it an "energy plan". Shawn Skinner should get right on that important job.

Demanding (II)

NTV's Mike Connors helpfully tweet-reports from the Nalco(r) love feast:

On issue of Holyrood, Martin says average usage is not the issue. NL must have capacity to meet peak demand in February.

For the record (again), this is the recent trend in peak demand (in Mw) on the Island Interconnected system:

[Data source: Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro and Nalcor annual reports, passim.]

For the record: for the record

Anonymous said...

For the record, the piece wasfilmedtwo weeks ago, well before Igor.
My nephew was in the class

Thursday, September 30, 2010 8:19:00 AM GMT-02:30

That week had 22 Minutes

By way of an access to information request, a bit of insight into some of the former Premier's activities during the week of September 20, 2010 — the week that a good swathe of eastern Newfoundland, and much of the appartus of the provincial, federal, and local governments, were dealing with the aftermath of Hurricane Igor.

Some editorial notes: where material was redacted by the Access to Information official redactor, the redaction is indicated. The use of the single [REDACTED] bears no necessary relation to the length of the redaction, which may be a single word or a larger block of text.

The headers of quoted emails have, where necessary, been reconstructed assuming the same To- and From-participants (with roles reversed) and the same subject lines as prior or subsequent messages in the chain. Where the original time-stamp was not preserved, the email has been placed chronologically relative to the email it is quoted in, or the email it quotes.

Obvious typos in the originals are indicated. A few key passages have been underlined here for emphasis; underlining is not in the original.

BondPapers noted the curious timing of the taping within days of the event, back on September 29th.

This corner's early inquiries at the school board, asking to confirm, as a matter of fact, the date of the taping, met with a most curious response. "We have been advised by thePremier's office," the respondent helpfully offered in early October, "that any questions regarding his schedule or involvement in the taping of the recent This Hour has 22 Minutes program can be directed to his office."

A few weeks later, Danny Williams accused Marystown Mayor Sam Synard of being a "showboat".

* * *

From: [REDACTED]
Sent: Monday, September 13, 2010 1:58 PM
To: Matthews, Elizabeth
Subject: [REDACTED]

Hi there,
Season 18 of 22 is in production. We premiere next Tuesday. Soooooo... we want to do a show looking at Lower Churchill and Hydro and all that and were wondering if my favorite Premiere [sic] is interested. The angle we are thinking is, I talk to him about the Churchill for a sec, and then I interrupt him to point out I think that the reason Quebec isn't playing ball is, they can't understand him. He's speaking in English when he should be making points in French. So, I try and get him to repeat some translations and french sayings to camera. Then to cap it off, I get him to come with me and site in with the Grade 2 French immersion kids at Bishop Field with me. Just one quick scene. Thoughts? It'd be funny but also a good way to explain the issue very plainly and simply to a Canadian Audience who might not be that knowledgeable about it.
Hope all is well.
[REDACTED]


From: Matthews, Elizabeth
Sent: Monday, September 13, 2010 4:24 PM
To: [REDACTED]

[REDACTED] Looks like we are good to go. can you offer me some idea of timing?


From: [REDACTED]
Sent: Monday, September 13, 2010 5:21 PM
To: Matthews, Elizabeth
Subject: [REDACTED]

awwwwwwwwwwwwww!!! anytime next week after monday


From: Matthews, Elizabeth
To: [REDACTED]
Sent: Tuesday, September 14, 2010
Subject:

How does Tuesday, Sept 21 work for you?


From: [REDACTED]
To: Matthews, Elizabeth
Sent: Tue Sep 14 15:52:22 2010
Subject: Re:

Splendidly!


From: Matthews, Elizabeth
Sent: Tuesday, September 14, 2010
To: [REDACTED]
Subject:

It's a date. How much time you need? [REDACTED]


From: [REDACTED]
Sent: Tuesday, September 14, 2010 4:37 PM
To: Matthews, Elizabeth
Subject: Re:

Itd be 15 minutes to shoot somewhere with him about lower churchill (maybe at confederation building) and the probablt [sic] 20 minutes to be honest at Bishop field [sic] with the grade 2's. [REDACTED]


From: Matthews, Elizabeth
Sent: Tuesday, September 14, 2010
To: [REDACTED]
Subject: Re:

We will happily do both. Your call. We'll alott [sic] 2 hours. Say 10:30 here at the bldg (or Bishops first – whatever works best for the school).
em


From: Matthews, Elizabeth
Sent: Wednesday, September 15, 2010 12:08 PM
To: Ings, Christine; Nolan, Andrea
Subject: 22 Minutes

We are going with Tuesday morning at 10:30. I would a lot [sic] 2 hours total as we [sic] doing a shoot here at the building then we are off to Bishops school.
em


From: [REDACTED]
To: Matthews, Elizabeth
Sent: Wednesday, September 15, 2010 1:12 PM
Subject: Re:

1030 at school first might be good time for them as they could do it after recess


From: [REDACTED]
To: Matthews, Elizabeth
Sent: Wed Sep 15 13:37:04 2010
Subject: Re:

[REDACTED]


From: Matthews, Elizabeth
Sent: Wednesday, September 15, 2010
To: [REDACTED]
Subject: Re:

[REDACTED]
em


From: [REDACTED]
Sent: Wednesday, September 15, 2010 2:16 PM
To: Matthews, Elizabeth
Subject: Re:

[REDACTED]


From: Matthews, Elizabeth
Sent: Wednesday, September 15, 2010
To: [REDACTED]
Subject: Re:

Sounds good. Can you send me a brief outline of the whole thing so I can get him ready? [REDACTED]


From: Matthews, Elizabeth
Sent: Thursday, September 16, 2010
To: [REDACTED]
Subject: Re:

Don't forget me – a quick run down [sic] on how the morning will go is all I need. Tks!


From: [REDACTED]
Sent: Thursday, September 16, 2010 6:04 PM
To: Matthews, Elizabeth
Subject: Re:

Hey
They way the piece will run, it'll be start [sic] with a sit down shot of Danny and I talking about Quebec.
Ill [sic] need him to:
A: quickly in sound clip fashion explain the church, power etc B; what Quebec is doing to mess it up
C: ill [sic] quote him some of his more … Um... Angry Quebec quotes.

Then I explain to him that he shouldn't be aggravating Quebec like that... Because the can't understand him. And that he needs to learn how to take shots at them en francais. I get him to say from french, its terrible so I tell him he needs a tutor at his level. Cut to: he's in the grade 2 french class, answering the teacher with the other kids. Then danny raises hand, made that the kids on the other side of the room have nicer crayons, slap in the face to the people on his side, etc.. I take him out.
Sounds like more than it is, but it won't be that long.


From: Matthews, Elizabeth
Sent: Monday, September 20, 2010 12:14 PM
To: [REDACTED]
Subject: RE:

Batten down the hatches. Looks like we will be doing this smack in the middle of 150 mm of rain compliments of Igor.


From: [REDACTED]
Sent: Tuesday, September 21, 2010 10:11 AM
To: Matthews, Elizabeth
Subject: Re:

Sweet!


From: [REDACTED]
Sent: Tuesday, September 21, 2010 10:32 AM
To: Matthews, Elizabeth
Subject: Re:

[REDACTED]


From: [REDACTED]
Sent: Tuesday, September 21, 2010 10:32 AM
To: Matthews, Elizabeth
Subject: Re:

[REDACTED]


From: Matthews, Elizabeth
Sent: Tuesday, September 21, 2010 11:00 AM
To: [REDACTED]
Subject: RE:

Bad news. We have to bail on tomorrow. We've cleared his schedule as we will be going around the province visiting sites. Destruction is widespread already and the storm hasn't even hit full force yet. Some areas expected to get 300 mm of rain! Let me know if you want a rain check [REDACTED]


From: Matthews, Elizabeth
Sent: Tuesday, September 21, 2010
To: [REDACTED]
Subject: Re:

Good call on today. Schools are closed


From: Matthews, Elizabeth
Sent: Tuesday, September 21, 2010
To: [REDACTED]
Subject: Re:

Here's problem #2. Looks like we might be choppering around the province tomorrow. State of emergency being declared in a few places already. Major damage and flooding. The place is a mess. How do you feel about Thursday? [REDACTED] We still don't know for sure, but I figured I'd plant the seed.


From: Matthews, Elizabeth
Sent: Wednesday, September 22, 2010 10:16 AM
To: [REDACTED]
Subject: Re:

Anytime after 1230 Friday works. You set it up with school and let me know. As of now won't have email until later tonight.


From: [REDACTED]
Sent: Wednesday, September 22, 2010 10:48 AM
To: Matthews, Elizabeth
Subject: Re:

seeya at the school at say, one? thanks!


From: Matthews, Elizabeth
To: [REDACTED]
Sent: Thursday, September 23, 2010
Subject: Re:

[REDACTED] PMO is moving target. Don't know when we will be back tomorrow. I honestly think we're rolling the dice trying to do this tomorrow. All very fluid. They could get out and decide not to come back until late afternoon. And the weekend is out for DW.


From: [REDACTED]
Sent: Thursday, September 23, 2010 2:42 PM
To: Matthews, Elizabeth
Subject: Re:

[REDACTED] The crew already headed there. I'll tell them to sit tight and we'll wait it out. If u can, cool, if not no bad


From: Matthews, Elizabeth
To: [REDACTED]
Sent: Thursday, September 23, 2010 10:17 PM
Subject: Re:

So, looks like we'll be back on the ground at 2. Premier is going to need just enough time to get a suit on then we'll meet you. School first?
em


From: [REDACTED]
Sent: Thursday, September 23, 2010 11:28 PM
To: Matthews, Elizabeth
Subject: Re:
Attachments: 166798979.jpg

[ATTACHMENT REDACTED]

yeah, the kids have to go at 3, so that'd be great. [REDACTED]


From: Matthews, Elizabeth
Sent: Friday, September 24, 2010, 10:35 PM
To: [REDACTED]
Cc: Nolan, Andrea

[REDACTED] – I'm copying Andrea back at the office so she can contact you if we get delayed. I'm not sure how Blackberry coverage will be. Right now we're on time


From: [REDACTED]
Sent: Friday, September 24, 2010, 11:10 AM
To: Matthews, Elizabeth
Subject: Re:

K


From: Matthews, Elizabeth
Sent: Friday, September 24, 2010, 1:16 PM
To: [REDACTED]; Nolan, Andrea
Subject:

Should be back by 2:30. What time does school let out?


From: Nolan, Andrea:
Sent: Friday, September 24, 2010
To: [REDACTED]
Subject:

Bishop's Field Elementary gets out at 2:55pm


From: [REDACTED]
Sent: Friday, September 24, 2010, 1:27 PM
To: Nolan, Andrea
Subject: Re:

We're here now


From: Matthews, Elizabeth
Sent: Friday, September 24, 2010, 2:24 PM
To: Nolan, Andrea; [REDACTED]

We'll go straight to school when we land. He's dressed casual so we'll have to make that work. We're landing in at 230

By way of comparison

The Saguenay Floods of 1996 resulted from major downpours on the 19th and 20th of July. Canadian Forces personnel were engaged in relief operations on the 20th.

Operation RECUPERATION: The Great Ice Storm of 1998 began dropping freezing precipitation on Ontario, Quebec, and New Brunswick on January 5th. The three provinces requested Canadian Forces assistance on January 7th.

The Mel Lastman Blizzards of 1999 culminated with a major snowfall on January 13th. The Toronto mayor requested Canadian Forces assistance on January 14th.

Operation SPLINTER: Hurricane Juan struck Nova Scotia on September 29th, 2003. Halifax Mayor Peter Kelly requested Canadian Forces assistance before the day was out.

Operation CANTON: On December 13, 2010, a winter storm left highways in southwestern Ontario impassable, even to snow-clearing vehicles which themselves became stranded. Emergency Management Ontario requested Canadian Forces assistance the following day.

Convenient timing

Principled Skinner announces a "supplemental review", or, as the Premier might call it, an "audit", of one component of the Muskrat Falls proposal:

As part of the comprehensive evaluation process to move the development of Muskrat Falls and the Labrador Island Link projects to final sanction, the Provincial Government has asked the Board of Commissioners of Public Utilities (PUB) to provide a supplemental review of the process used to determine that Muskrat Falls represents the least-cost option for the supply of power to Island Interconnected Customers compared to the Isolated Island development option.

“The Lower Churchill project is the most significant electrical generation and transmission project undertaken by this province in 50 years, and it is important to engage the PUB in a review of the fundamental question about developing the least-cost option to meet our energy needs,” said the Honourable Shawn Skinner, Minister of Natural Resources. “Our government chose to request this review to provide another perspective on the soundness of the assumptions and principles used in the analysis. This review is one element of fulfilling best practice processes aimed at ensuring this investment decision benefits from rigorous input from multiple sources prior to sanction.”

The PUB will initiate a review on the development of the Muskrat Falls generation facility and the Labrador-Island Link transmission line as the least-cost option to supply power to the Island compared to the Isolated Island development option, and will establish the process for this review including public engagement. The report will be submitted by December 30, 2011, in time for input into the sanction decision, and will be made public as part of the sanction decision process.

The provincial election will be held on October 11th, 2011.

Proud, stubborn, and dunderheaded

The Canadian Forces website has an interesting and informative write-up and photo gallery about Operation LAMA, the domestic disaster-relief operation which took place on the Bonavista and Burin peninsulas in the wake of Hurrican Igor last September:

More than 80 isolated communities were affected in Newfoundland and most heavily hit were the Burin and Bonavista Peninsulas. Food was distributed on behalf of the Government of Canada to 1,200 people who lived in 18 communities that included Plate Cove, Hodderville, Little Catalina, Kings Cove, Stock Cove, Bonavista, Duntara, Grand Le Pierre, Harbour Mille, Open Hall, Tickle Cove, Red Cliff, Little Heart’s Ease, Keels, Brichy Cove, Amherst Cove and Newman’s Cove.

If you live in Plate Cove, Hodderville, Little Catalina, Kings Cove, Stock Cove, Bonavista, Duntara, Grand Le Pierre, Harbour Mille, Open Hall, Tickle Cove, Red Cliff, Little Heart’s Ease, Keels, Brichy Cove, Amherst Cove or Newman’s Cove, or elsewhere in the Igor-affected regions, or, for that matter, anywhere in Newfoundland and Labrador where you have been helpfully insulated from the sheer scale of the incompetence that was seven years of Danny Williams-Government, then you'll be wantin' to read this impressive investigative report by Mallory Clarkson of the Transcontinental weekly newspaper The Packet, along with the related editorial by Barbara Dean-Simmons.

Research help wanted

Via Labrador Morning. York University studying-guy Will Stos is looking for research material or interview subjects who can help him with his study of regional political parties in Canada... including the New Labrador Party.

Alternative history

Erin Kelly post at CornerBrooker:

Another aspect of Smallwood’s legacy was the creation of the Upper Churchill dam, which created lasting enmity between Newfoundland and Quebec. Newfoundland essentially gave away most of the economic benefits of the project in exchange for a power corridor through Quebec. It was also a raw deal for the people of the Innu Nation, who were not even consulted about the damming, though they live next to it and have seen their hunting, fishing, and ancestral burial grounds decimated.

Play "Spot The Glaring Errors". It's fun!

As he was saying before he was so rudely interrupted

As The Labradorian reported on October 24, 2005:

Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro Chief Executive Officer Ed Martin believes transmitting power from the proposed Lower Churchill development through Quebec and not to the island is the best available option.…

“If we can do a deal across Quebec and into Ontario that would probably be our best deal, if we can get the right structure for that deal… We’ll [i.e. Hydro] decide on what power is being sold, what power will be retained for recall in Labrador, will there be an infeed or not…all those decisions on the configurations will have to happen in the next three to four months.”

Ahem.

Again, you mean?

From the Ministry of Truth (Provincial) this morning:

Apparently, Labrador City isn't in NL.

None of their business

VOCM reported on Saturday:

A debate is underway over the size of the province's civil service. The division has grown substantially over the last few years, and while the province's largest public sector union says that current spending levels are sustainable, business people and economists disagree. The St. John's Board of Trade says that the provincial government needs to rein in its spending, and that NAPE has no business saying otherwise

Oh, no, wait. That's not what VOCM reported at all:

A debate is underway over the size of the province's civil service. The division has grown substantially over the last few years, and while business people and economists worry that current spending levels are unsustainable, the province's largest public sector union disagrees. NAPE President Carol Furlong says government is doing as it should, and that the St. John's Board of Trade has no business saying otherwise. Furlong says the Board of Trade opposes increases to the minimum wage and public sector salaries, and that government's decision to expand public services is "simply putting back what was taken out."

Fossils

From VOCM this morning. No, this isn't a story about the PC party keeping incumbents safe from nomination challenges:

Government to Protect Fossils

The province's Tourism Minister says government is working on legislation that will protect the province's fossils. Newfoundland and Labrador has a number of world-famous fossil beds, including Mistaken Point and the Manuels' River that need to be preserved from fossil hunters. Terry French says creating the regulations to protect these valuable resources is a government priority. He says they've been working on the legislation for quite some time, as fossils shouldn't be taken from the province.

It's most interesting to learn tht Terry French has been working on this legislation for some time... especially considering that just such legislation has been on the books for almost a decade:

Kevin Aylward, Minister of Tourism, Culture and Recreation, announced two amendments to the Historic Resources Act.

"I know how vitally important our heritage, both cultural and natural, is to Newfoundland and Labrador and its people," said Minister Aylward. "It helps define who we are. I am extremely pleased to announce that this legislation will add to government's role in preserving and protecting that heritage by clarifying and expanding the role of the Heritage Foundation of Newfoundland and Labrador and protecting the province's fossil resources."

...

The amendments to protect the province's fossil resources are a result of public consultations conducted by the Committee on the Use of Outdoor Resources in July 1999. The Office of the Legislative Council in consultation with the Department of Tourism, Culture and Recreation have outlined amendments to the Historic Resources Act necessary to make it illegal to remove fossils found at sites within the province.

"The Government of Newfoundland and Labrador is committed to preserving the natural heritage of the province. Fossils are an important part of this heritage," stated Minister Aylward. "Fossils belong to all of us and we all should benefit from them, be it for educational or commercial purposes. These amendments will in no way hamper legitimate mineral and oil exploration, nor legitimate mining and quarrying activities. Government has no intention of criminalizing the possession of fossils, but is committed to preventing their sale or their export by individuals or corporations for private commercial gain."

Bill 57 of 2001, which received Royal Assent in December of that year, and came into force in February 2003, effected those announced changes to the Historic Resources Act.

With these amendments, the culture minister was given the positive duty to protect palaeontological resources in the province (s. 4), and the power to deputize officials to implement and enforce the provisions of the Act (s. 33.1)

The provincial cabinet gained the powers to give the protected status of "provincial cultural property" to palaeontological resources (s. 14); to declare a site to be a "significant palaeontological site" (s. 16.1); and to regulate palaeontological excavations, the exploitation, preservation, and handling of palaeontological resources, and the designation of palaeontological sites as "protected" or "significant" (s. 33).

In keeping with the provincial government's reputation for foot-dragging and lollygagging, none of these powers in respect of fossil resources have yet been exercised. The only recent development in the protection of these resources was the enlargement of the Mistaken Point protected area — under the Wilderness and Ecological Reserves Act.

Unless there are fossils in some of the sedimentary layers underlying any of the expropriated AbitibiBowater properties, the provincial government has done little else in the past decade to protect sensitive palaeontological sites, and nothing at all using the powers which have been sitting in the statute books, unused, all that time.

Chumbawilliams

Just in case anyone out there is still, like Wade Locke, coming to grips with the fiscal legacy of seven years of unfettered Williams Effect, let it not be said that you weren't already warned, and that you didn't get that warning straight from the top.

As Danny Williams-Government told Fred Hutton of NTV in his 2008 year-end interview, which aired early in January 2009:

As you pay down the debt it also gives you the ability then to bring it back up. It’s no different than if you paid down your line of credit at the bank or pay off your car loan, it gives you the ability to go borrow a little more, take a little more if you need it. So, that money will be used, for example, that, that surplus that’s actually going on the debt, though, will also be used to fund, you know, the settlements with the unions. I think the public sector settlements are going to cost us in the range of a half-billion dollars a year forever. So, that money will sort of go, go towards the public sector workers, which is, which is good, though, from an economic perspective because now we have this whole new infusion of eight percent and then four, four, and four into the economy and that’ll help drive our own economy, as well.

You read that right.

You pay debt down. Then rack it up again. You're never gonna pay it down. You pay debt down. Then rack it up again. You're never gonna pay it down. You pay debt down. Then rack it up again. You're never gonna pay it down. You pay debt down. Then rack it up again. You're never gonna pay it down.

And that "half-billion dollars a year forever"?

Between now and 2031, the Great Economist laid out a scenario last night that would see the provincial debt balloon to $37-billion — with a b. That's about $72,500 for every person currently living in the province... and, contrary to popular perception, the provincial population has started to decline again.

"Half-billion dollars a year forever", over the twenty years to come between now and 2031, accounts for ten of those thirty-seven billions.

And that's just in the first twenty years of "forever".

By request for hyeall

Tweep "hyeall" was interested in seeing the public sector* work-force as a share of overall employment.

Ask, and ye shall receive. Here are the figures, in stacked-bar graphic form, for the five-ish years up to April 2010. (Updated figures should be available in a few weeks):

Nearly 30% of working people in the province work directly for some level of government or other public entity.

Here is the raw job-count (in thousands), with the same colour scheme:

And here is the job picture with public-sector employment excluded. The "boom", resulting in "record employment", is not coming from organic growth in the private-sector economy:

Careful examination will reveal that the private-sector employment and self-employment job figures plateaued in 2006.

By 2007, and the Summer of Happies, when former Premier whassisname was boasting about all the "pigeons" at the arrivals area of Newfoundland International Airport, coming home to work in the booming economy, the private-sector employed and self-employed labour force was already beginning to weaken.

It continued to weaken through the rest of the decade, turning around only in early 2010. The turnaround, at least to the end of available data, had not seen the figures recover to pre-slump levels.


* Includes the entire public sector: provincial, federal, and local government.
Data source: Statistics Canada CANSIM Table 282-0011.

Price check

Back in late March, Question Period in the Bow-Wow Parliament was the scene of the following exchange:

MS JONES: Mr. Speaker, in 1998, when Nalcor looked at building a transmission line across the Island, they budgeted the cost at $2.2 billion. Fast-forward now thirteen years later and the Premier says she will build the same line for $2.1 billion. We know that over that time period steel cost has risen by more than 200 per cent, that is not to mention the increase in the cost of labour and other supplies that go into building the line.

I ask the Premier today: Will you tell us how it is possible to build a steel transmission line across the Province today for less money than it would have cost thirteen years ago?

PREMIER DUNDERDALE: Mr. Speaker, there has been extensive work done on the development of the Lower Churchill over a number of years, particularly in the last eight years under this government, under the leadership of Nalcor. Mr. Speaker, we used a gaited process that took in a very detailed analysis, we received the best expertise that was available to us in the Province, in the country, and worldwide when necessary, Mr. Speaker. More than that, Mr. Speaker, we have had two independent audits of the methodology used by Nalcor to ensure that the process is as good and the information as good as can be had at this point in time.

MS JONES: If they have had all that work done, there is no reason why the Premier cannot stand on her feet today and explain to us why there is such a difference in pricing. We know that steel prices have increased by 200 per cent in thirteen years; we know that the line you are proposing to build is only twenty-six kilometres longer, Mr. Speaker, than the line that was proposed back in 1998.

Now that you have all the research Premier, stand up and tell us why your line is going to be cheaper than it would have been thirteen years ago?

PREMIER DUNDERDALE: Mr. Speaker, the Leader of the Opposition is all over the place. Everything is going to go up. Labour prices are going to go up, commodity prices are going to go up. The only thing that is not going to go up, Mr. Speaker, is electricity. The price of electricity is not going to go up. The demand of electricity is not going to go up. Mr. Speaker, the least we could ask from her is consistency.

MS JONES: No answers from the Premier; she is out there trying to sell a big deal, Mr. Speaker, in the Province and she gets up and gets on with such gibberish in the House of Assembly. Very clear, very simple questions, Mr. Speaker; why is it that the cost that you are projecting to build this transmission line is cheaper than it would have been thirteen years ago, Mr. Speaker, given the fact that everything else has increased in cost including the price of steel? I ask the Premier to have a little decency and to stand up and explain that to the people of the Province.

PREMIER DUNDERDALE: Mr. Speaker, if you were to listen to the Leader of the Opposition, you would think that the Government of Newfoundland and Labrador is going to develop Muskrat Falls for a lark, for an absolute lark, for something to do. Mr. Speaker, we are developing Muskrat Falls because it is the best and cheapest energy solution for Newfoundland and Labrador. We are building it for the people of Newfoundland and Labrador, Mr. Speaker.

SOME HON. MEMBERS: Hear, hear!

PREMIER DUNDERDALE: That is why we are building Muskrat Falls.

Mr. Speaker, we have developed a methodology that allows us to do this in the most cost-effective way. Mr. Speaker, we have had those costs and that methodology audited by independent agencies of worldwide reputation. Mr. Speaker, they have given us high marks on the information that we have used and the outcomes that have resulted as a consequence of it, Mr. Speaker.

MS JONES: I am not sure what lark is doing but I know what their government is doing and that Premier is doing and that is they are jacking up the price of electricity going into every single household in this Province, Mr. Speaker. The Premier, Mr. Speaker, claims they have had all of these audits done; we are asking a very simple question, Mr. Speaker, give us the information. So if you have had it done and you have the information that you can provide to the people of the Province that shows how you, Premier, can build a transmission line today cheaper than you could thirteen years ago, we would love to see it. So I ask you: Are you prepared to table the information?

PREMIER DUNDERDALE: Mr. Speaker, we have provided information upon information, upon information. We have asked Nalcor to provide information and they have done that in briefing after briefing after briefing. We will continue to do that, Mr. Speaker. The problem is they do not know how to interpret or deal with the information when they get it, but that will not stop us from trying to inform them about this project, Mr. Speaker.

Good question, innit? Why is more-or-less the same transmission line as contemplated in 1998, now projected to magically cost less in 2011 than estimated thirteen years before?

Too bad the answer wasn't nearly as good.

In totally unrelated news, Radio-Canada reports today:

Le raccordement de la Romaine au réseau de distribution coûtera 1,5 milliard ce qui comprend la construction de quatre postes de distribution et de quatre lignes, le tout réparti sur une distance de 500 kilomètres d'ici 2020.

[Connecting the La Romaine project to the distribution grid will cost $1.5-billion, which includes the construction of four distribution substations and four transmission lines, totalling 500 km in length, by 2020.]

By way of comparison, the magical, inflation-immune, overrun-proof "Labrador - Island Transmission Link", if built, would total 1100 km, including a 15- to 20-km submarine crossing of the Strait of Belle Isle.

Ferry fix

If Marine Atlantic had so completely cocked up the management of the Gulf ferry, that getting vehicles and passengers across the Cabot Strait came down to running cars as freight and shuttling passengers on buses and light aircraft... would you ever hear the end of it on the open-line shows?

Nope. You would not.

Off the table

For many years, Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro slash Nalco(r) have published an annual report, to which was appended valuable statistical tables, including the following section showing average rates paid per kwh by various electricity customers.

This table — slightly edited from the original to add the year headers — is from the 2009 version of the report:
For some unknown reason, the inclusion of this table of rates was discontinued in Nalco(r)'s 2010 Business and Financial Report, laid before the House of Assembly last month.

In a totally unrelated development, "cheap" Muskrat Falls electricity will cost 14.3 cents a kwh to generate and deliver — wholesale — to Newfoundland.

The mix

Herewith, a pretty chart showing Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro's total generation output (in GWh, with percent of the total) from thermal (largely Holyrood) and hydraulic sources, over the past decade. (Churchill Falls, Menihek, isolated diesel, and the feeble wind industry output, excluded.)

[Data source: Nalcor/NLH annual reports, passim.]

Thermal once accounted for well over 30% of the total — a figure which is sometimes still, and, at best, erroneously, bandied about.

The more things change

An 1894 wire story:

CONGRATULATING THEMSELVES

The Newfoundland Government Formally Take Credit for the Way They Have Fixed Up the Business.

ST. JOHN'S, Nfld, Aug. 9.—The legislature closed to-day after the briefest session on record, having been open only a week. All the financial measures, revenue, supply, road loan, and bills which met with the refusal of the Whiteway government were passed. The closing ceremony was unusually impressive. In the speech from the throne, it was declared that nothing in the whole history of the colony's existence was more creditable than the promptness with which the current legislative business had been transacted. The prosperous crops and fisheries were spoken of, and the likely rapid progress in the construction of railways was commended. Regarding new legislation, the consolidation of all the systems of railways under one management was also commended; and the colonization of government lands adjacent to railways was suggested. The promotion of fish culture and the survey of the Labrador coast were advocated.

Ghosts

Bob Wakeham writes in Saturday's Telegram:

Now you’d expect the Liberals, in particular, to exploit the fact that many Newfoundlanders appear worried they might have to swallow a bitter Upper Churchill-like pill (although Jones’ questions in the legislature carried more weight than will that amateurish, foolish bit of cartooned animation unveiled at last week’s convention).

But others without an active political agenda — the former Tory finance minister John Collins comes to mind, as does a former member of the Hydro board of directors, Ed Hearn, (carrying some light political baggage) — have also wondered about the strategy surrounding Muskrat Falls.

Speaking of John Collins and Ed Hearn, has anyone at the Telegram been able to find Dean MacDonald, or his viciously-severed tongue?

Road roundup (II)

And what's this?

Le Soleil: 122 millions $ pour le prolongement de la 138: l'aide du fédéral attendue à son tour

To wit:

«On va pouvoir désenclaver trois des cinq localités qui le sont actuellement et les gens vont pouvoir se trouver du travail avec les chantiers-écoles. J'ai compris que l'intention du gouvernement était de terminer la 138 jusqu'au bout dans les plus brefs délais et je souhaite bien que le fédéral investisse à son tour pour permettre d'y arriver.»

Hoping for federal money, instead of applying for it?

How very Newfoundlandian.

It will be interesting to see the federal response to the wish, given that Quebec, for some reason, didn't nominate the 138 extension, or any part of the 138 east of Sept-Iles, to be part of the 2005 additions to the National Highway System.

Road roundup (I)

Press release: Québec invests an extra $122 million for the extension of route 138 on the Basse-Côte-Nord

Radio-Canada: Côte-Nord : 122 millions de plus pour prolonger la 138 jusqu'à La Romaine

Radio-Canada: Côte-Nord : un chantier-école pour les Innus

Great Environmentalist

Glorious Leader is about to be recognized by Corporate Knights for his "unrelenting drive to unleash Canada’s green energy-super-power potential".

The honour is being given "in recognition of his moral courage and unrelenting drive to unleash Canada’s energy-super-power potential in a fair and green way".

The fart-sniffers who are handing out this award have obviously never heard about Our Dear Plan to run "green" energy transmission lines through a national park, Our Successful Green Expropriation of a previously privately-owned toxic stew, or Our Very Fair Plan to ensure access to Labrador hydro power for everyone, as long as they don't actually live in Labrador.

Demanding

One of the preferred talking points by Dundergov in support of the Muskrat Falls Deal-Like Thing is that it is necessary (so the talking point goes) in order to meet all the demand.

Wade Verge, who is someone's MHA, bumbled and mumbled these talking points, with some inadvertent humour thrown in, a few days ago:

The fact is, in 2015 this Province will have a capacity deficit for electricity. What it means when we say a capacity deficit, it means that at peak times – when we think of peak times, a peak time might be a February morning when everybody is getting up and getting ready to go to school, and people have their toasters on all over the Province. At peak times there will be a deficit. So that is 2015.

Now, by 2019 we are told we will have an actual electricity deficit. That means the electricity demand in the Province at that point in time will be greater than the electricity we are producing. We have a problem, how do we meet the demand? We have established through analysis, objective, fair analysis, that there is going to be a deficit. Now we have to decide as a Province, how do we meet the demand?

First of all, the demand has been growing; it has been growing for a number of years. The demand has been growing because of economic growth. This Province has been growing. Economic growth means we have a greater demand for power. We have had more homes being built. We have had bigger homes being built. About 86 per cent of the homes that are being built, they tell us now, are using electricity. Domestic demand has grown. That is something that is established, this is something that has been verified.

Herewith, a graph of some figures taken directly from Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro / Nalco(r)'s own reports, showing the total amount of energy (in GWh) sold annually by NLH/Nalco(r) over the past decade. The chart, like the source data, helpfully distinguishes the three main classes of energy sales: industrial, rural (i.e., non-industrial customers who are supplied directly by NLH), and utility (i.e., power sold to da lite and power b'yes who then retail to their customers.)
And herewith, a graph of stats from the same source, showing the peak demand (in MW) on the Newfoundland and Labrador Hydro generating network (Churchill Falls excluded) over the same period.
If you can't spot the "growing demand", show these charts to Wade Verge.

Apparently he can.